Rahul Kumar Jha

I live to eat.
Don't follow me in expectation of follow back.

[peeleraja @peeleraja]

While the SIR protests are going on, it is important to retrospect on how we got here. 2019 and 2024 elections were done without an SIR.

Institutions dont collapse overnight. They decay slowly. When scientists start spewing pseudoscience for a grant and promotion. When economists trade their morals for a data set.

When you trade healthcare and education for a shiny new train, you are basically preparing to sell your jewelry to fund your kids' college and your own medical treatment.

That propagandist news anchor has made enough money to buy his kid an IB school seat in BKC, Mussoorie, Ajmer or Darjeeling. Your kid on the other hand, will pay a fortune to study in an "international" school where the teachers teach in Hindi. Hinglish if you are lucky. Or a dummy school far far away from home, where teachers refervto themselves as "Sir".

That IAS officer's kid will study economics and sociology in Sonipat, Swansea or Swarthmore. You will pawn your family jewels to see your kids study Indian Knowledge Systems and dance with Chinese robodogs in NOIDA or Meerut.

You mocked the person raising alarms for a decade. You called him a conspiracy theorist. A troll. An incel. Because he pointed out red flags in the NRC, Digiyatra and various other projects. You successfully silenced him into depression. Now your stock portfolio is crashing and your savings are eroding. FIRE postponed indefinitely.

But hey, the IPL is here! Ranbir has released his new movie! Laser show at the Eden Gardens! Drinks at Doolally! Brahmins Coffee Bar!

Fuck those Humanities plebs and their scaremongering! Fuck Neha Bora and their pronouns! Fuck those protestors! Make India Great Again!

[Rahul Kumar Jha @perfectguy_kol]

@Aunindyo2023 Iskcon

[Colonel AD, SM🇮🇳 @simply_mixed_up]

I met a doc. After knowing that I'm a retd Fauji, he advised:
"Exercise more. Don't buy alcohol esp red wine. Drink plain water. Don't drive-use a bus or walk. Don't eat out. Avoid meat & seafood. Eat only veg.
I asked "What's wrong with me?"
He said "Your pension is too low”.🙄

[Sharad Shah @arabicatrader]

Dixxon vs Bosch HCIL

Dixxon mkt cap Rs 90000 crores
Sales Rs 15000 crores
Nett Rs 700 crore

Bosch expected Sales Rs 4500 crore
Company taking off after taking over Johnson Hirachi

Mkt cap Rs 5200 crores and at large inflection point trajectory and rounds of taking over Whirpool on street

Gem from German MMC on way to become hub of exports

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Markets Sense a Long Era of Instability: Don’t Buy the Fall

(a) Govt is distracted (b) FIIs dislike mass protests (c) 2021-26: Nifty below-FD Return (d) FD rates will rise; Build Cash (d) China 17 yrs 0 return (e) Here’s India Data & Facts:

Second Order Effects on Economy

a. Govt is facing real political storms. It has no bandwidth left for major economic policy or reforms to attract foreign investment.

b. Foreign funds don’t invest where mass protests and public discontent are a daily affair. Their bet on India was a strong govt; strong economic agenda.

c. Inflation rising, unemployment rising; IT exports declining; Rupee under pressure. RBI is forced to fight inflation. FD rates will rise in Oct.

Zero Risk Premium in Equity

a. 5-Year Returns: Sept 2021 to Sept 2026 (5 Yrs): Nifty 50 Return: 32.3%; Post Office Deposit Return: 34.4%; SBI 5-Yr FD Return: 30.8%

b. 3-Year Returns: Nifty 50 Return: 15.58%; Sensex Return: 9.94%; Post Office Deposit Return: 21.56%; SBI FD Risk-Free Return: 21.34%

c. Last 3 Years: Out of a universe of 2,867 stocks, 43.3% delivered negative returns (one-third lost up to 50% value; 11% lost above 50% value).

d. Risk-Reward Ratio: In last 3 years, you had a 43.3% probability of destroying your capital. Against such high risk, even if you won, the returns were far too negligible to justify such volatile investment.

Don’t Bet on Growth Narrative

a. Yesterday, Kotak published a chart showing that China stock market (CSI 300) has remained sideways for the last 17 yrs; and has not yet regained the level it set 18 yrs ago.

b. Howard Marks published data in his recent memo: In the last 100 yrs, each time you bought S&P 500 at forward PE 23x, the annualized return in the next 10 yrs has been between +2% and -2%. Every single time. No exceptions.

c. India is no exception. India’s growth story of FDI, FII, IT boom, low inflation is long over. Over the next 5 yrs, the downside risk looks higher than the upside potential. If you go all-in, that’s a risky bet for your mental peace, with little potential upside.

Why Are FIIs So Pessimistic?

a. On Aug 28, Bernstein published a hard-hitting strategy note: "India’s corporate earnings are artificially engineered through state subsidies, fiscal cushions, and borrowed offshore dollars rather than through genuine productivity gains."

b. Market bulls touted NSE 200 top-line growth was 12%. Yet, net profit grew only 7%. Bernstein questioned the practice of excluding loss-making oil marketing companies (OMCs) "to manufacture a strong earnings growth story."

c. Govt expanded LPG/fertilizer subsidies, took $10B hit through excise duty reductions, $20B GST cuts, OMCs took $2B loss. So govt subsidized consumer spending power, which artificially padded the firms’ operating margins. That's not a long-term play.

d. $70B Pay Commission wage revision is coming, which will encumber sovereign balance sheet and cut govt’s capacity for public capex. Plus, with costly FCNR deposits, govt is purchasing rupee stability on credit, Bernstein warned.

e. Finally, Bernstein says India’s large caps are not investing in the future, and are consolidating their past (preserving balance sheets). Companies with deepest pockets don’t want to commit capital to emerging technologies, and want policy protection.

f. In this scenario, FIIs are forced to look at small and midcaps (SMIDs). But those companies remain sub-scale, with low free-floats, high volatility, and risky corporate governance. Institutional capital is not interested.

Bernstein concludes: With these problems, why should FIIs invest in India?

ENDPIECE: Investor Strategy

a. PE de-rating is going on globally. World-class US companies are available at throwaway prices, and there are no buyers. So, don’t get tempted by a falling market in India.

b. Build cash patiently. Unwind risky positions. Cash has 3 benefits: (1) Emergency funds give security & happiness (2) FD may beat equity for next few years (3) If global equity crashes, you will be the only buyer in town.

c. Think in Probabilities: Considering all macro factors: (1) India Equity Boom: 20% chance (2) Sideways: 60% chance (3) Bust: 20% chance

FD wins: 60% + 20% = 80% chance
Equity wins: 20% chance

Markets are the greatest game on earth. The dream to get rich is as old as the hills. Most investors will still pick equity.

@arabicatrader

[Rahul Gandhi @RahulGandhi]

For the record: 80% of Indians are non-vegetarian.

Indian non-vegetarian food is delicious. As are my sister's chole bhature.

[मराठी एकीकरण समिती - Marathi Ekikaran Samiti @ekikaranmarathi]

पर्युषण काळात मास मासे विक्री बंदी हा तुघलकी निर्णय मागे घ्या
- मराठी एकीकरण समिती आयुक्तांच्या भेटीला..
शहरात संघर्ष वाढवू नका, दंगे वाढवू नका, तेढ वाढवू नका समितीने कायदे घटना याबद्दल अनेक दाखले देऊन तुघलकी निर्णय स्थानिकावर लादू नये, धर्म स्वतः जपावा इतरांवर लादू नये, खान पान स्वातंत्र्य आहे इथे त्यामुळे कोणावर बंधन घालू नका अशी मागणी केली.

आपण इंग्रज नाही आहोत लोकांच्या सेवेसाठी नेमलेले सेवेकरी आणि लोकप्रतिनिधी आहात याचे भान ठेवा..

भाजपने मास मासे विक्रीवर घातली बंदी , जैन पर्युषण मुळे स्थानिक आगरी कोळी मासे विक्री करणाऱ्या महिलांच्या उदरनिर्वाहाचे काय?
पालिका ठराव करते म्हणजे काय ?
उद्या पालिका ठराव करेल शहर मेहताला विकले या शहराचे नाव मेहता अँड मेहता आहे मग? बहू मतात आहात म्हणून असे ठराव मांडता?
(मी टोपी घालतो म्हणून आयुक्तांनी आणि अतिरिक्त आयुक्तांनी घालावी हे चालेल का? मान्य आहे का? - गोवर्धन देशमुख)

मी शाकाहारी आहे म्हणून सर्वानी विक्री बंद करावी हा तुघलकी निर्णय आहे व पालिकेचे पत्रक मागे घ्या ही 2 दिवसीय बंदी आम्हाला मान्य नाही.
नागरिकांना विचारात घेऊन लोकप्रतिनिधी आणि पालिका अधिकाऱ्यांनी वागावे.
- मराठी एकीकरण समिती

[Krish Ashok @krishashok]

Everyone uses the term "Superfood" but no one bothers to define it. So I took 10 essential nutrients and scored common Indian ingredients on how much of your daily needs 100 kcal of that food provides so that you have some mathematical basis to call something a superfood.

Ghee scores 4. Chicken liver scores 292 and costs less than paneer. And what maxxes out the scale? Palak (Spinach)

The most nutrient-dense foods in India are the cheapest things in the market, and the least hyped by influenzas

[Rahul Kumar Jha @perfectguy_kol]

@DGCAIndia @RamMNK sg115 Mumbai to Darbhanga delayed by 4 hours. Passengers stuffed inside the aircraft since 4 hours. Do you think hjman beings as cattle or luggage, being stuffed without food and no explanation for the delay.

[Ashish Jha @the_dream_saver]

They had one job!

[Satyam Raj @Satyamraj_in]

Biharis are always at the forefront when it comes to burning Bihar for the sake of the entire country.

But when it’s time to actually stand up and do something for Bihar itself, inse kuch nhi hota.

This protest has once again proved it.

[Rahul Kumar Jha @perfectguy_kol]

@kkstau How cute of you to think that the poor fellow can take the decision of resigning.

[Sanjeev Singh @sanjeevsinghx]

Elsewhere in India, crossing barricades is called breaching... But when it happens in Bihar, anti Biharis twist it into “stealing” and weaponise it to insult an entire state and its gullible youth.

This tweet is not praise... It is a cheap, hateful and calculated stereotyping disguised as a compliment.

[Rahul Kumar Jha @perfectguy_kol]

@SanjayAzadSln @RahulGandhi Shame on you

[Trendulkar @Trendulkar]

Just checked the price of The Whole Truth Whey Isolate. It's ₹7,500 for 1 kg now!?? Someone please add a little ethanol and make it affordable.

[Rahul Gandhi @RahulGandhi]

लोकसभा में नेता प्रतिपक्ष के रूप में आज दो साल पूरे हुए।

इन दो सालों का हर दिन एक ही काम रहा - हर भारतीय की आवाज़ को सत्ता तक पहुँचाना।

NEET के छात्रों की लड़ाई हो, वोट चोरी का पर्दाफाश हो या संविधान की रक्षा, हर मोर्चे पर आपके साथ खड़ा रहा, आज भी हूं, हमेशा रहूंगा।

सड़क से संसद तक, आपका भरोसा ही मेरी सबसे बड़ी ताक़त है। सफ़र लंबा है, पर संकल्प वही, आपके लिए हर लड़ाई लड़ता रहूँगा।

जय हिंद। जय संविधान। 🇮🇳

विस्तार में पढ़ें: https://t.co/vyj9WhFIhO

[Mukul Dekhane @dekhane_mukul]

Historic picture; important lessons:

1986 world cup photo of Maradona, Pele and Platini.

1.Maradona campaigned against drugs
2.Pele stood for the rights of the children &
3.Platini against corruption .

Time passed by : 1.Maradona became a drug addict.
2.Pele refused to accept his biological daughter Sandra Regina Arantes, who was born as the result of his affair with a housemaid (in 1964). Arantes filed a lawsuit against Pele. She won the case with DNA tests results and later wrote a book, "The Daughter the King Did Not Want", that described her mother’s affair.
And …..

3.Platini was banned from football administration for corruption.

Two important lessons:
1) Nobody is perfect;
2) Appearances can be deceptive.

[Prakash K Ray @pkray11]

कई लोगों ने पोस्ट और रिपोस्ट किया है कि अमेरिकी हमले में मरने वाले एक भारतीय नाविक के पिता ग़ाज़ा में इज़रायली जनसंहार का समर्थन कर रहे थे.

मैंने बड़े-बूढ़ों से सुना है कि पूत बढ़े पिता के धर्मे. यानी, पिता के करतूतों की क़ीमत बेटे को चुकानी पड़ती है.

लेकिन, हमारे समाज का एक व्यवहार यह भी है कि अंतिम संस्कार के लिए जाती अर्थी को श्रद्धा से प्रणाम करने का, चाहे वह किसी अनजान की हो या किसी ऐसे की, जिससे बनती न हो.

हदीस के हवाले से कहीं पढ़ा था कि पैग़म्बर मय्यत देख कर खड़े हो जाते थे, भले वह किसी ग़ैर-मुस्लिम की हो.

ज़िंदा रहने की कोशिश हो, बाक़ी बाद में. किसी के मरने की इच्छा नहीं करनी चाहिए. ऐसा कोई पाप या ग़लत नहीं करना चाहिए कि पीड़ित ईश्वर के पास शिकायत करे.

मरना सबको है, दुश्मन, दोस्त, अनजान, परिचित…

[P. Sainath @PSainath_org]

Even by the standards of a country ranking 157 of 180 nations in the World Press Freedom Index, the reaction of the authorities to the ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ is beyond extraordinary. The public response to that imaginative prank should have signalled to them a deep discontent, even distress, among young people. Instead, as The Indian Express reported, it was framed as jeopardising the country’s ‘national security’ and ‘posing a threat to the sovereignty of India.’ Decades ago, the Malaysian lawyer and poet Cecil Rajendra wrote this brilliant poem that captures the idiocy of it better than any pompous editorialising could (not that our ‘mainstream’ media would dare do even that much).