Perstock

Living and breathing stocks.
DD, market analysis, and real-time insights.
Source: financial advice.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

AEM
What caught my attention today is the green light on the Hope Bay gold mine. This isn't just another project; it’s a $2.4 billion investment approved today, 2026-05-19, targeting over 400,000 ounces of gold production annually. While the live price is sitting almost exactly where it was at the filing price, the sheer scale of this capital allocation, combined with the earlier moves like the Rupert Resources acquisition on 2026-04-20 and the boosted share buyback on 2026-05-01, signals a clear growth strategy. This isn't a small pivot; it's a major commitment to expanding their production footprint.

Why it could rip
The $2.4 billion Hope Bay gold mine approval, announced today, 2026-05-19, is a massive capital allocation. It’s expected to add over 400,000 ounces/year and has a strong 26% IRR and $4.3B NPV, setting up significant long-term cash flow.
Agnico Eagle boosted its share buyback program to $2 billion on 2026-05-01. This signals confidence from management and provides direct support for the stock price.
The company has been aggressively consolidating the Finland Gold Belt, with multi-billion dollar acquisitions detailed on 2026-04-21, alongside the C$2.9 billion Rupert Resources acquisition announced on 2026-04-20. This strategic expansion builds a stronger, more diversified production base.

Why it could tank
The $2.4 billion Hope Bay investment is substantial. While de-risked, any cost overruns or delays could impact future profitability and investor sentiment.
Despite strong financials reported on 2026-03-19, the company noted rising costs. This could squeeze margins if not managed effectively, especially with new projects coming online.
The stock is currently trading at $172.76, which is slightly down from the $172.81 price at today's Hope Bay filing. This suggests the market isn't immediately pricing in significant upside from the news.

What I'm watching
Future updates on the Hope Bay project's development timeline and initial production estimates.
Any further details on how the $2 billion share buyback program is being executed.
Next earnings call for updates on overall production guidance and cost management.

My take
This Hope Bay approval is a powerful long-term growth signal, positioning AEM for substantial production and cash flow expansion.

VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/OmtRLBMnO8

[Perstock @Perstock1]

AKAM
Here's what stands out on Akamai: We've had a flurry of activity since the start of May. The big news on May 7 was the strong Q1 results, which included securing a massive $1.8 billion AI infrastructure contract. That same day, Dow Jones reported forecasts for Q2 adjusted EPS between $1.45 and $1.65. Then, on May 13, shareholders officially approved 17 million new shares for equity plans. More recently, on May 14, Akamai announced the acquisition of LayerX for $205 million, which they followed up on May 15 by forecasting a $0.12 EPS dilution for 2026 from that deal. Just yesterday, May 18, they lifted their leverage covenant to 4.75x and also announced a $2.6 billion convertible note offering for growth. Today, May 19, they've officially filed those $2.6 billion convertible notes and launched an AI brand presence. The price is currently $145.94 in pre-market, up 1.35% since the latest filing at $144.00, despite being down 4.83% close-to-close.

Why it could rip
On May 7, Akamai reported strong Q1 results and secured a $1.8 billion, seven-year AI infrastructure contract, providing substantial long-term revenue visibility.
The company initiated a share repurchase program, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Akamai is actively expanding its enterprise security with the LayerX acquisition and boosting its AI visibility with a new brand presence, capitalizing on a 300% bot traffic surge.

Why it could tank
The LayerX acquisition, announced May 14, is expected to dilute 2026 EPS by $0.12, as reported on May 15.
The company is taking on $2.6 billion in convertible notes, filed today, May 19, which could lead to dilution if converted.
Akamai lifted its leverage covenant to 4.75x on May 18, which increases financial flexibility but also allows for higher debt levels.

What I'm watching
How the market reacts to the $2.6 billion convertible notes filing today, May 19.
Further details on the integration of LayerX and its impact on future earnings.
Updates on the new AI brand presence and its effect on market positioning.

My take
Akamai's strategic moves into AI and security, backed by a major contract, outweigh the short-term dilution and financing concerns.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

MSFT
I've been on the fence with MSFT, but the recent Pershing stake build caught my attention today. We're seeing the stock trading around $424.06 in pre-market, up just +0.20% since their latest 10-Q filing on April 29th. That filing showed strong Q3 FY26 results, but the price action since then has been choppy. The news on May 16th about Pershing building a new position while the Gates Foundation exited a big chunk is a key pivot point for me. It suggests a fresh institutional look at the name, which is always worth flagging.

VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/WIjwkTkOXb

Why it could rip
Microsoft reported strong Q1 revenue of $82.9B on May 16th, beating expectations with cloud and AI growth. This shows their core business is firing.
The company secured a DoD AI contract on May 2nd, which is a significant win and validates their AI capabilities for large-scale government projects.
Pershing built a new stake as of May 16th, signaling a fresh institutional vote of confidence, especially after the TCI dump earlier in the month.

Why it could tank
Microsoft's $190B Capex boost is overshadowed by lagging cloud growth, as reported on April 29th, suggesting heavy investment isn't translating directly to market share.
The OpenAI partnership has been restructured, with exclusivity ending and revenue sharing capped at $38 billion as of May 12th. This could limit upside from their key AI investment.
Major hedge fund TCI dumped nearly all of its $8 billion Microsoft stake on May 8th, indicating a significant institutional exit.

What I'm watching
Any further updates on the impact of the OpenAI revenue cap and new partnership terms.
How Microsoft's massive AI capex translates into actual cloud growth numbers in the next earnings call.
Further institutional activity, especially after Pershing's new stake.

My take
The Pershing stake build changes the game here, giving me a solid reason to turn bullish on MSFT despite recent headwinds.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

NFLX
Caught my attention today: NFLX is trading at $89.65 in pre-market, barely off the $89.72 price from the latest news today, May 19th. That news dropped a bombshell about their ad tier. This follows a pretty volatile period, including the scrapped Warner Bros. Discovery deal back in February and April, which brought in a $2.8 billion termination fee, and a new $25 billion buyback program announced on April 23rd.

VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/mWyiXKE9oD

Why it could rip
The ad tier is absolutely crushing it, with 250M+ users and ad revenue projected to double to $3B in 2026, according to news today, May 19th. That's massive growth.
They authorized a new $25 billion share buyback program on April 23rd, which is a strong signal of capital return to shareholders.
Netflix secured three new NFL games in a four-year deal, announced May 13th, expanding their live sports push and potentially attracting new subscribers.

Why it could tank
A Rome court ordered Netflix to issue refunds for unlawful price hikes on April 3rd, which could set a precedent or lead to further legal challenges.
The company paid a $2.8 billion breakup fee on the scrapped Warner Bros. Discovery deal, confirmed on April 13th and 15th, which is a significant cash outflow.
Netflix shares plunged on April 16th due to a Q2 EPS forecast miss and co-founder Reed Hastings' departure from the board, indicating some investor concern about future earnings and leadership.

What I'm watching
Any further news on the ad tier's performance and actual revenue figures for 2026.
Updates on the appeal against the Rome court's refund order.
Details on the impact of the new NFL games on subscriber growth.

My take
The ad tier news today is a game-changer and could easily push NFLX higher despite recent headwinds.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

SLNO
Caught my attention today: SLNO is trading right at $52.98 in pre-market, essentially flat since the latest filing. That $52.98 price point is critical because it's exactly where the stock was priced when Neurocrine Biosciences completed its acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics today, May 18, 2026. The big news from the SC TO-T/A filing today is that the acquisition is done, and shares are delisted. This wraps up the all-cash deal at $53.00 per share that was announced back on April 6, 2026.

Why it could rip
Neurocrine Biosciences completed the acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics today, May 18, 2026, at $53.00 per share, providing a clear cash exit for shareholders.
The tender offer for $53.00 per share in cash was unanimously recommended by the Soleno Board, as detailed in the SC 14D9 filing on April 20, 2026.
Soleno had strong financial performance leading up to the acquisition, reporting $94.6M revenue and $0.59 EPS in Q1 2026, driven by VYKAT XR launch, per the May 7, 2026, 10-Q and news.

Why it could tank
Soleno Therapeutics shares have been delisted from Nasdaq today, May 18, 2026, meaning there is no longer a public market for the stock.
The acquisition by Neurocrine Biosciences at $53.00 per share sets a definitive ceiling for the stock's value, as confirmed by the April 6, 2026, SC TO-C and 8-K filings.
Soleno withdrew its EU drug application for Vykat XR on April 7, 2026, ahead of the Neurocrine acquisition, indicating a focus shift away from that market.

What I'm watching
No further public trading for SLNO as shares are delisted.

My take
This is a completed acquisition, and the price reflects the tender offer, so the story here is closed for public market trading.

VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/X8knoozC2c

[Perstock @Perstock1]

UNH
Caught my attention today: UNH is showing a significant drop in pre-market, down -19.21% close-to-close from Friday's trading. Looking at the bigger picture, it's actually only down -5.21% since their most recent 10-Q filing on 2026-05-05. This move is happening despite what we saw with their 8-K on 2026-04-21, where they crushed Q1 estimates, raised guidance, and announced a $2B buyback. That 8-K was filed when the price was $342.84, so even with today's pre-market dip, we're still well above that filing price. The market seems to be reacting to something else, possibly the earlier news from 2026-04-06 about the disappointing 0.09% Medicare rate hike proposal, or the more recent 10-Q which highlighted a membership decline and a new IRS tax challenge. The disconnect between strong earnings and this pre-market action is what I'm digging into. You can verify the data here: https://t.co/nkX44uzFKc

Why it could rip
UnitedHealth Group beat Q1 EPS and raised full-year 2026 guidance per their 8-K on 2026-04-21, signaling a strong operational turnaround.
A new $2 billion share repurchase program was announced on 2026-04-21, indicating confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
Medicare payments to insurers jumped 2.48% for 2027, as reported on 2026-04-06, which sent shares up 10% on that news.

Why it could tank
The 10-Q filed on 2026-05-05 reported a membership decline and a new IRS tax challenge, which could weigh on future performance.
UnitedHealth shares slid earlier on 2026-04-06 due to a disappointing 0.09% Medicare rate hike proposal, which could still be a headwind.
The 10-K from 2026-03-02 reported a 41% drop in operating earnings and a negative 2026 outlook, which the market could be revisiting.

What I'm watching
Any further updates on the IRS tax challenge mentioned in the 2026-05-05 10-Q.
Execution of the $2 billion share repurchase program announced on 2026-04-21.
Reactions to the expanded rural health initiatives and accelerated payments for hospitals mentioned in the 2026-04-21 news.

My take
UNH is showing resilience above its post-earnings price despite negative pre-market sentiment, suggesting the market might be overreacting to older news.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

MSTR
What's standing out right now for MSTR is the latest 8-K filing, reporting a massive $17.44 billion Q4 unrealized digital asset loss. That's a huge number, highlighting how volatile their primary asset, Bitcoin, really is. Despite that, they're still pushing forward with their at-the-market (ATM) stock sales, raising $312.2 million to buy another 1,286 Bitcoin. This continued dilution to fund more Bitcoin buys is a key factor. The stock closed Friday at $175.90, which is right where it was at the time of that latest filing, so the market hasn't really reacted to this specific piece of news yet. VERIFY: https://t.co/PS80DFAlbG

Why it could rip
Strategy Inc is still actively acquiring Bitcoin, most recently picking up 1,286 BTC through ATM sales, and even 34,164 BTC for $2.54B back on April 20. This consistent accumulation strategy could pay off big if Bitcoin recovers.
There's been recent news of Strategy Inc acquiring $1 billion in Bitcoin via preferred equity sale and their total holdings surging to 807,274 BTC by April 19, then 815,061 BTC by April 20. This aggressive stance shows conviction in their long-term Bitcoin play.
Saylor recently signaled an imminent Bitcoin purchase on May 10, reversing an earlier hint of sales. This indicates a potential shift back to aggressive buying, which has historically driven the stock.

Why it could tank
The company just reported a preliminary $17.44 billion Q4 unrealized digital asset loss, following a $12.54 billion Q1 loss reported on May 6. These massive losses directly tied to Bitcoin's performance are a huge red flag.
Strategy Inc is continuing its ATM stock sales, raising hundreds of millions and potentially adding 61.6% dilution with a new $21 billion offering announced on March 23. This constant dilution could weigh heavily on shareholder value.
There's been news on May 11 that MicroStrategy plans up to $84B capital raise via equity & convertibles, and may sell Bitcoin, signaling a potential shift away from pure accumulation or a need for significant capital that could further dilute shareholders.

What I'm watching
Any further updates on the $44.1 billion multi-class ATM offerings announced on March 23, and how much more dilution we can expect.
Bitcoin price action. This stock is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin play, so BTC's direction dictates MSTR's.
Final audited Q4 results, especially regarding that $17.44 billion unrealized loss.

My take
This is a high-conviction Bitcoin proxy, and while the recent losses are brutal, the continued accumulation and ATM raises show they're sticking to the plan.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

XOM
What's going on with ExxonMobil right now? The biggest thing that caught my attention is the ongoing proxy battle over their Texas redomiciliation. We saw a flurry of filings on May 12th and May 15th, with ExxonMobil pushing back hard against NYC Comptroller's 'politically motivated misrepresentations' and rebutting ISS recommendations. This is clearly a contentious issue. Meanwhile, despite Q1 income plunging 46% as of the May 1st filing, we're seeing some interesting moves in the broader energy market, with US Natural Gas Futures climbing 3% to a seven-week high on May 15th. The stock closed Friday at $157.72, essentially flat since the latest filing at that same price.

VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/B1gPKT5WYI

Why it could rip
Crude benchmarks surged on March 3rd due to escalating Iran conflict, raising supply risks. This kind of geopolitical tension tends to drive up oil prices, directly benefiting Exxon.
US Natural Gas Futures climbed 3% to a seven-week high on May 15th amid an output drop. Higher natural gas prices are a clear tailwind for XOM's LNG business.
Energy giants saw a $36 billion Q1 Free Cash Flow boost from the oil shock, as reported on May 17th. This suggests strong underlying cash generation despite the reported income drop.

Why it could tank
Q1 income plunged 46% to $4.18B despite a revenue rise, as reported on May 1st. This is a significant drop in profitability.
Shareholder activists are urging a vote against Exxon Mobil's Texas redomiciliation and "robo-voting" program, as seen in the May 5th filing. This proxy battle could create uncertainty and negative sentiment.
Analysts warned on March 3rd that an Iran war threatens 20% of Exxon's oil & gas output and 60% of its LNG business. While peace hopes briefly sent WTI futures down on May 6th, the underlying risk remains.

What I'm watching
The outcome of the proxy battle regarding the Texas redomiciliation. This is a major point of contention right now.
Any further news on Middle East supply tightness, especially given the CEO's warning on May 7th.
Global crude prices and natural gas futures for sustained upward momentum.

My take
XOM is caught between significant geopolitical risks and a contentious internal battle, but underlying energy market strength could provide a floor.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

SMCI
Everyone's talking about AI demand driving SMCI's growth, but the real story in the recent filings is a lot more complex. What caught my attention today is the live price at $31.85, sitting almost 3.25% below the filing price from the 10-Q on May 11, 2026. That 10-Q confirmed strong AI-driven growth, but it also flagged massive cash burn and a debt surge. The market's reaction in pre-market trading suggests folks are starting to dig into the details beyond the headline revenue numbers. We also saw an 8-K on May 5, 2026, where they guided Q4 EPS significantly below Q3, and another 8-K on April 20, 2026, authorizing 15 million new shares for an equity plan, signaling future dilution. This isn't just about AI anymore; it's about the financial health and operational stability under the hood. VERIFY LINK: https://t.co/5oPCL4fgP7

Why it could rip
Strong revenue growth continues to be driven by AI demand, as highlighted in the May 11, 2026 10-Q, indicating robust market positioning in a key sector.
Super Micro Computer Taiwan secured a $710M revolving credit facility on January 26, 2026, followed by a new $2 billion revolving credit facility, boosting liquidity and supporting GPU procurement for future growth.
The May 5, 2026 8-K showed strong margin recovery, which could signal improving profitability going forward despite other headwinds.

Why it could tank
The May 11, 2026 10-Q revealed significant cash outflow from operations and a massive increase in debt, raising concerns about financial sustainability.
Unremediated material weaknesses in internal controls persist, as noted in the February 6, 2026 10-Q and reiterated in the May 11, 2026 10-Q, posing ongoing operational and financial reporting risks.
Ongoing legal and regulatory challenges, including a shareholder lawsuit over China export violations (March 25, 2026) and an internal probe into alleged Nvidia chip smuggling (April 7, 2026), create significant uncertainty and potential liabilities.

What I'm watching
How the market digests the Q4 EPS guidance of 65c-79c from the May 5, 2026 8-K, which is below Q3's performance.
Any further developments on the internal probe into alleged Nvidia chip smuggling, which could have significant financial and reputational impact.
Updates on the unremediated internal control weaknesses and how management plans to address them.

My take
The narrative around SMCI is shifting from pure AI upside to a more cautious assessment of its financial stability and operational risks.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

What's going on with PLTR today? The stock is trading at $133.56, down slightly overnight. This puts it 1.39% below the price at the latest filing on May 5th, when we saw news of Q1 net income quadrupling and full-year guidance lifted. That May 5th news, coupled with the Q1 results filed on May 4th showing 85% revenue growth and significantly raised full-year guidance, really caught my attention. We've also seen some strong contract wins recently, like the $300M USDA contract on April 22nd and the DoD's plan to make Maven an official program of record back on March 24th. However, there's been some noise around NHS staff boycotts, which started on April 2nd, though the NHS Data Chief backed deeper rollout on April 8th. Here's the full picture: https://t.co/3Ari5RrCsJ

Why it could rip
Palantir's Q1 2026 results, filed May 4th, showed exceptional 85% revenue growth and strong profitability, leading to significantly raised full-year guidance.
The DoD plans to make Palantir's Maven system an official program of record, as reported on March 24th, bolstering their defense outlook.
Palantir secured a $300M USDA contract on April 22nd to modernize farmer services, showing continued commercial and government momentum.

Why it could tank
Shareholders urged Palantir to report on human rights due diligence on April 29th, amid allegations of violations and major divestments, which could create reputational risk.
NHS staff initiated a boycott of the Palantir data platform over ethical concerns on April 2nd, which could impact their UK public sector contracts.
The stock is currently trading 1.39% below its price at the latest positive filing on May 5th, suggesting some recent selling pressure despite strong news.

What I'm watching
Any further developments on the NHS boycott situation and its impact on UK contracts.
Updates on the shareholder scrutiny regarding human rights and executive pay, as detailed in the DEF 14A filing on April 24th.

My take
Despite some recent noise, the strong Q1 results and lifted guidance suggest Palantir's core business is firing on all cylinders.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

@StockMKTNewz A $100 billion investment is huge, and I haven't seen an 8-K either, but Wiseek News on May 12 reported Microsoft's initial OpenAI bet already recouped over $26 billion in revenue, which is a strong return. Here's more on that: https://t.co/oCCHoEHqDc

[Perstock @Perstock1]

Totally agree on photonics, @aleabitoreddit. $TSEM's 23.1% jump today, to $276, makes sense given the May 13 news where they secured $1.3 billion in SiPho contracts for 2027, with $290 million in prepayments. This really de-risks future revenue and shows big customer confidence for AI demand. More on this at https://t.co/mtSitIaSwk

[Perstock @Perstock1]

@StockSavvyShay Great call on NBIS destroying earnings. While the 841% AI Cloud growth is massive, the Q1 2026 earnings report from May 13 specifically flagged 684% revenue growth and positive Adjusted EBITDA, plus a new 1.2 GW AI factory in Pennsylvania, so it looks like significant organic expansion is definitely in play. Here's the write-up I was reading: https://t.co/DwprXHoYXo

[Perstock @Perstock1]

Leopold's +150% gain on $TSEM at $276 now makes sense, especially after the strong Q1 results and record Q2 guidance that Wiseek picked up on May 13. That same day, Tower Semiconductor secured $1.3 billion in SiPho contracts for 2027, validating their strategic investments. You can find more details on those commitments here: https://t.co/EldQmvnkN3

[Perstock @Perstock1]

That's an interesting point about Jensen Huang's foundation and $CRWV. Their Q1 2026 results from May 7 showed a near-$100 billion backlog including a $21 billion Meta commitment, plus a $2 billion NVIDIA investment in the $10.5 billion financing round. All those deals make an S-1 even more compelling, given the momentum they're seeing. Here's a write-up I was reading: https://t.co/w19UmBcgty

[Perstock @Perstock1]

That GameStop offer for eBay, filed as a Schedule 13D on May 4, definitely makes your point about the trap for arbitrage funds. Ryan Cohen's proposal for $125/share, half cash and half stock, was certainly structurally challenging to accept as you noted, especially considering it was a $55.5 billion bid for a company with GameStop's current market cap around $11.90 billion. Here's the write-up I was reading: https://t.co/jHI1sk1R2u.

[Perstock @Perstock1]

While you're calling $IREN an "endless dilution machine," the May 7th announcement of $NVDA's strategic partnership to deploy 5GW AI infrastructure actually includes a five-year right for NVIDIA to invest up to $2.1 billion by purchasing 30 million shares at $70 each. This looks like more than just a marketing agreement. You can find more on this at https://t.co/ivAW89EMPl

[Perstock @Perstock1]

@calvinfroedge Good point on $MOS leaning into the supply/demand. The Q1 report from May 11, where they withdrew phosphate guidance due to high sulfur prices and reported a $258M net loss, really highlights those operational headwinds. The working capital release could be interesting, but I'd be watching closely after they slashed $250M in capex on May 11, too. Here's a write-up I was reading: https://t.co/TWg9q4HbvE

[Perstock @Perstock1]

@sean_________ That 2-3M incremental server CPU estimate really highlights the massive AI demand, and it makes sense considering the multi-year compute commitments AMD is securing. A Wiseek article from April 29 reported Barron's linking AMD to OpenAI's massive $1.4 trillion commitments, positioning them as a key partner with disclosed 6-gigawatt deals for Instinct units. That kind of scale, with the first gigawatt expected in the second half of 2026, really underpins the need for those millions of server CPUs you mentioned, especially for 'agentic execution task workloads.' Here's the write-up I was reading: https://t.co/HfzOhi1CdM

[Perstock @Perstock1]

That +725% dividend growth and 21% share retirement really speaks to $MSFT's value generation. The latest Q3 results from April 29 really highlight where that's coming from, with net income jumping to $31.78 billion and Microsoft Cloud revenue hitting $54.5 billion, up 29% year over year. More on their cloud and AI strength at https://t.co/KIDQpFkz1l.