@KillaXBT I like the way you've mastered the market plan and movement especially on HTF.
With your content we can the market structure more deeply and clearly.
Kudos!
I’m still seeing disbelief across the market.
People are underexposed, unpositioned, and still looking for shorts for a "healthy" retracement.
The real retracement usually comes once the urge to short has completely disappeared. Something which I have not seen yet.
$BTC is developing a new range. The upper boundary could sit around 89-95s, with the 82-84s acting as the lower boundary before the next leg towards 126.
People are subconsciously turning bullish, but I still do not see many actually longing market price. I see more trying to time the "top".
So with that in mind, my plan remains the same. We have now confirmed a HH on the weekly with a strong bullish engulfing. I am not quite sure why people thought shorting into that was a smart idea, but ok.
I think we have enough momentum to push higher (Approx 89-94). Once that happens, I expect the 82-85K area to become support and act as the floor before finally pushing to 126. That is likely the last place to build longs imo.
The “Everything Is Priced In” chart.
It documents the biggest catalysts and news events throughout each cycle, and more importantly, what tends to happen shortly after them.
During every bear market, $BTC gets hit with endless bad news that fuels downside. But once the HTF trend starts shifting, that same negative news becomes what I call FUD through the bull cycle.
People become so conditioned to shorting bad news because throughout the bear cycle, negative headlines usually led to lower prices. But when BTC enters a bull cycle and begins doing the inverse, (absorbing the bad news and moving higher), they get caught completely off guard.
The headlines still create panic. People still expect lower. But instead of continuing the downtrend, BTC begins absorbing the fear and trending higher regardless.
There is usually one major catalyst that confirms the continuation. Last cycle, it was the ETF approval. This cycle, I believe it will be the Clarity Act.
We have already seen the early signs of it. The rate hike, Clarity Act speculation and then the failure of the Act were all treated as reasons for BTC to sell off further. Instead, BTC swept the lows and showed strength.
That is the difference between a bear market and a bull market. In a bear market, bad news pushes price lower. In a bull market, bad news is used to make people capitulate before price moves higher.
Now we have had the rate hike, the Clarity Act failure, and even World War 3 narratives trending. Yet BTC is starting to react positively to the fear rather than negatively.
To me, that resilience is one of the clearest signs that the trend has changed. I see no reason these catalysts should play out any differently to previous bull cycle FUD events.
Likes/RTs are appreciated, spent a while creating this.
Dumping into FOMC.
You already know the drill. I’ve been playing this particular pivot for two years now, and it has proven its effectiveness when inversing the narrative.
Expectations > reality. The move happens before the data.
The interesting part is that whenever $BTC has pumped into FOMC, it has had an insanely high tendency to reverse back down.
Whereas when it dumps clearly into the event and forms a more bearish narrative than bullish, it reverses back to the upside.
You know what I’m implying here. We’re dumping into it, so be prepared for a recovery afterwards.
At 76K, they’ll aim for 74K.
At 74K, they’ll aim for 70K.
At 70K, they’ll aim for 66-68K.
At 66-68K, they’ll aim for sub-57K.
The lower $BTC goes, the lower expectations shift.
Ultimately, nobody knows with 100% certainty which price region BTC will bounce from before its next leg higher.
That’s why you work your way level to level, as I do.