Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉

Married, semi-retired, and a bit boring. I like numbers. And cheese.
Ex- #Mensan💡 Certified #Aspie🤔 #OU graduate🎓 #Randonneur🚲 and now officially Ꚙ I😍NHS💙

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

My UK 2022 Covid expectations.
"Hostage to Fortune" time.
I predict, based on my perceptions, UK 2022 excess death toll will be in the range of 30K-50K.
The measure of my "rightness" will be the published https://t.co/ycp1jjwBQQ numbers (in Jan 2023)
1/4

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

I had doubts whether this was real ...
So I checked the Guardian, and found it was.
(last letter in those listed, when I checked at c. 18:25 GMT Tuesday 20th February 2024)
Chapeau, Terry!
https://t.co/ZInBjXx6v3

[@elisled2 #FBPE #HopeDiesLast @elisled2]

Guardian letter writers are on a roll at the moment!👇🏻
👏👏

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@PaulTempleman6 Compared to a 'very large' recession, obviously.
Or should that be a 'very small' recession compared to a 'very tall' recession?

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@UseBy2022 @mvankerkhove I might add that JN.1.7* may already be at, past, or approaching, the 5% of cases that some folks seem to think is important.
Speculatively add on 10 days or so of samples not all yet sequenced and uploaded, and it looks even worse.
https://t.co/XCU31HTfEI
https://t.co/EbfTVN1gpG

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@UseBy2022 @mvankerkhove It seems to my uneducated mind that:
- No more than about 5% of UK folks have Covid currently (probably half that)
- Have even 50% of UK had Covid in the last 6 months?
- Vaccines do not 100% stop infection (I am living proof, right now🤣)
=> plenty of room for JN.1.7* to thrive

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@BristOliver My first port of call would be to have a look at how often the ONS alters its Excess Death methodology, and at how often the ONS makes (what some might see as large) adjustments to the stratified population data.
I speculate it happens following a census (10 yearly) or more.

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

MP apparently "on the take" loses appeal to finding that said he was likely "on the take".
My local MP may be a spineless brown-noser, but, so far, he has shown more sense than to be apparently involved in lifestyle or corruption "incidents"
[MPs selling influence is corruption]

[Stuzi 🐝🐝 @stuzi_pants]

Breaking 🗞️

Independent MP Scott Benton loses his appeal over his suspension for lobbying having been caught in a newspaper sting

By-election imminent in Blackpool South & the Fylde

With his weird voice he could always be an After Dinner Squeaker

https://t.co/XUC3CgYdhz

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@jazzaoxon But, but, but, they gotta clear that level on Candy Crush.
To be fair, most MPs are not the the main chamber most of the time, so they can play Candy Crush more discreetly.
Gotta get your priorities right.
/s

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@gwladwr Because they have been repeatedly told (directly and indirectly) it's all over?
Looks like a failure in Public Health Messaging to me.
[I am trusting that it is not "but I am all right, Jack"].

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

So now I am in the "avoid people for 5 days, if possible" phase. So I will.
I am early retired, and because we hold "contingency supplies" of most stuff, I can avoid going to the supermarket and I have no "workplace" to attend anyway.
No law against decency. Do unto others etc.

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

My UK 2022 Covid expectations.
"Hostage to Fortune" time.
I predict, based on my perceptions, UK 2022 excess death toll will be in the range of 30K-50K.
The measure of my "rightness" will be the published https://t.co/ycp1jjwBQQ numbers (in Jan 2023)
1/4

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

Given that my spouse was away, I do not think I could have caught it from her before the 13th Feb (when she came back).
In Autumn/Winter it is hard to tell if vague signs mean much, but yesterday evening I started to get some "proper" symptoms.
Exposure to Positive = 5 days.

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

I glad that it passes a few miles away from my small house and very small garden!
I think the count is now 4 sinkholes.
Dirty great holes appearing randomly, like some demented video game.
(Why does "Lemmings" seem apposite?)
https://t.co/Am3uvGS24S

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

Rather close to me.
Half a railway, at double the cost, connecting the wrong two stations in London and Birmingham, via the wrong route and built to the wrong loading gauge.
But at least it passes the other side of town from me.
Small mercies.☦️

[Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉 @peter_boring]

@UseBy2022