peter lavoy

Erstwhile policymaker, analyst and scholar. Now international government relations advisor at @ExxonMobil. Views expressed are entirely personal.

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

Important new piece — all the more impressive as it’s the first publication by @ndlavoy

[Nate Lavoy @ndlavoy]

The potential for extensive audiovisual data collection to facilitate advanced deepfake creation is a compelling and urgent reason to scrutinize foreign-controlled apps like TikTok. https://t.co/EIzbL5qumy via @RANDCorporation

Go check out my recent article for RAND!

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

A brutal truth courtesy of @Norman_Roule

[Norman Roule @Norman_Roule]

Predicting long-term domestic political trends or election outcomes in any country is likely a fool's errand. This said, advocates of JCPOA and engagement, opponents of pressure campaigns and military action, partisan voices, and participants in Iranian information operations argued that the deal would moderate Iran's politics. There was no evidence to support this assertion although even some in Iran may have believed this to be possible. Neither hope nor the self-serving comments of some Iranian officials are evidence that regime moderation was possible but advocates often passionately presented both as such. Importantly, JCPOA constrained no hardline activity. The deal’s financial relief increased funding for hardline equities (including proxy actors such as Hamas), and Iran's senior most leaders had no intention of allowing the deal’s consequences to undermine hardline authority. Further, ensuring continued hardline support shielded the Islamic Republic against pressure for its non-nuclear aggression. Thus, hardliners enjoyed the benefits of the deal while simultaneously the political capacity to criticize those who made it possible. Whereas the Trump administration withdrew from JCPOA, its concerns were widely - and loudly - noted by Congress on both sides of the aisle and the majority of regional countries who believed the deal would compromise their core national security and questioned the idea that the deal would lead to political moderation in Iran. Although outside your question, JPCOA was likely fatally compromised by its lack of bipartisan support and its transformation from a foreign policy into a domestic political talking point. Deal advocates also undermined their position by downplaying (or ignoring) that whereas JCPOA introduced significant international oversight and real, if temporary and fading, constraints on Iran’s nuclear enterprise, it simultaneously resourced Iran's missile programs and lethal regional adventurism. This meant that over the life of the deal, Iran���s nuclear enterprise and its regional aggression would expand absent moderation of the regime. The international community’s unwillingness to punish Iran (beyond symbolic if numerous sanctions) for its lethal regional actions, domestic oppression, and actions which questioned its commitment to a peaceful nuclear program (e.g., retention of the nuclear weapons archive, dual use activities) likely accelerated JCPOA’s collapse. In recent years, Tehran likely perceived that the erosion of its diplomatic isolation and sanctions enforcement made adherence to the deal unnecessary. We should recognize that this may have been the inevitable outcome of the deal given the hardliner hold on power.

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

Wow

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

NEW: America is a rich country. Britain is a poor country with one wealthy region.

People love to compare the UK to Mississippi, but it’s far more informative to look at UK subnationally, too.

London ranks fairly well, the rest of the country does not 👉 https://t.co/xrIzwYGaCI

[Vanda Felbab-Brown @VFelbabBrown]

Round 3: 3 years after last haircut, 10 more inches for cancer wigs

[Russell Crowe @russellcrowe]

When her second cup was taking on the night air, she rose, embraced us all and strode away into the fog-dimmed streetlights.
We sat there the four of us and variously expressed the same thing. What an amazing woman.

Peace be with your courageous heart Sinéad.

[Martijn Rasser @MartijnRasser]

Brilliant

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

Spot on

[Susan Glasser @sbg1]

About that tape: the backstory on why Donald Trump was so mad at Mark Milley he all but confessed to a crime…

My column: https://t.co/cSnRm8GASX

[ExxonMobil India @exxonmobil_ind]

Our CEO Monte Dobson sends his best wishes to PM @narendramodi on his upcoming state visit to the US. Watch his video message here:
@IndianEmbassyUS

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

via @NYTOpinion https://t.co/Zcq2THHWTx

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

I believe I see many future ambassadors in that crowd.

The American public … and business community thank you all!

[Michael J. Rigas @DepSecStateMR]

I’m grateful for the opportunity to meet the exceptional group of new Foreign Service Officers. These are amazing leaders ready to take on a range of global challenges. #FutureofDiplomacy @FSIatState

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

@USAmbKeshap the US business community is overjoyed with your leadership at the Chamber. There is no one finer to guide and enable American companies to help India and Bangladesh achieve their development, growth and climate goals.

[Atul Keshap🇺🇸 @USAmbKeshap]

All thanks to my wonderful team. 🙏🏼❤️

[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

People work hard to earn a living. Be grateful for what you do.

[SenatorSherryRehman @sherryrehman]

This is why we have presented the provinces a Clean Air Policy framework to act on ( after full consultations with them) with 5 key actions to reduce pollution into 2030 and 2040. Nothing happens overnight but the journey must begin. The provincial EPAs must be empowered to act

[CERAWeek @CERAWeek]

Matthew Crocker, Senior Vice President, Low Carbon Solutions of @ExxonMobil, will join #CERAWeek 2023 for shared learning on #energy challenges, solutions, and strategies. https://t.co/zM4S1nbMfa

[Vintage Los Angeles @alisonmartino]

I mean… WOW

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

@amortowles Can’t wait — a brilliant book!

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

I love Asia

[Darth Putin @DarthPutinKGB]

Who sent me this Valentine Card?

Best answers get antidote.

[Bill Clinton @BillClinton]

Happy Valentine’s Day to my forever Valentine!

[peter lavoy @peter_lavoy]

I love every word of the statement. Though I’m troubled that the SecDef needs to affirm our commitment. Did George C Marshall have to do that during WW2?

[Archive: Lloyd J. Austin III @SecDefAustin]

Gen Milley and I are laser focused on the 🇺🇸 US’ unwavering support for Ukraine. Our allies in the UDCG are united and committed to continuing the urgent work necessary for Ukraine’s security assistance needs.