Peter Bee

Class of 2018. Prev: Memecoins. Now: Farming yield on Polymarket in bear market. On @Polymarket from February 2024.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Bitcoin’s bottom in this cycle is around 60k or 40k. Nothing in between.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Bangaranga swept this year’s Eurovision. Well, see you next year.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Who will win @Eurovision 2026?

My @Polymarket Predictions:

Entry:

Some years have blessed us with songs that were absolute surefire winners for example: Germany 🇩🇪in 2010, Sweden🇸🇪in 2012/2015/2023, or Austria🇦🇹 in 2014. Ukraine 🇺🇦in 2022 and Switzerland🇨🇭in 2024.

But there are also those tricky years, like the battle between Israel🇮🇱and Austria 🇦🇹 in 2018 or the repeat performance in 2025.

It’s worth adding that this year I jumped into predictions quite late, which means you can still catch the tasty underdogs and dark horses by betting before the semi-finals or even DURING Eurovision – just like in 2025, when waiting for better odds paid off.

After this year’s boycott, I don’t see Israel having any real chance of winning Eurovision. If that happens, next year we’ll probably see even more countries pulling out of the contest. This year the boycott by several countries is really messing up any clear prediction of the winner.

My predictions:

Best Nordic Country: Finland 🇫🇮

First Semi-Final Winner: Finland 🇫🇮

Second Semi-Final Winner: Australia 🇦🇺

Here, another interesting bet also looks like a NO on Bulgaria 🇧🇬 and a YES on Ukraine 🇺🇦. Everything depends on the number of TELEVOTES Australia receives – which is one of the biggest unknowns of this year’s Eurovision, but we’ll get to that later.

Televote Winner: Finland 🇫🇮 / Izrael+Finland 🇮🇱🇫🇮

It’s impossible to tell how the rule changes and the boycott will affect the viewers’ voting. It seems to me that Israel is overrated, and it’s entirely possible that Finland ends up winning the televote. Alternatively, the Israel + Finland combo bet giving 69%.

Jury Winner: Australia 🇦🇺 / Bulgaria 🇧🇬 NO

If there are no surprises during the performance, Australia 🇦🇺should win. If something goes wrong, however, Finland 🇫🇮will take 1st place and win the entire Eurovision. Bulgaria 🇧🇬 is a definite NO. France 🇫🇷 is underestimated.

Last Place: UK 🇬🇧or Germany 🇩🇪 / Belgium 🇧🇪 NO

Germany 🇩🇪 suffered the smallest point loss from the boycott, but they have one of the worst running-order positions in the show. Belgium 🇧🇪also won’t finish last thanks to strong vocals and great scenography. It’s also hard to imagine Austria 🇦🇹landing in last place for the second time as host, like they did in 2015. The UK 🇬🇧looks like the current favourite to finish bottom, but even here it’s difficult to gauge the real strength of the performer’s YouTube fanbase.

Top 10:

Bangaranga from Bulgaria 🇧🇬could turn out to be a surprise in terms of jury points – and not in a good way. That’s why I’d avoid this trade at the current odds. Denmark🇩🇰, along with Ukraine 🇺🇦 and France 🇫🇷, is still relatively cheap. Italy 🇮🇹and Sweden 🇸🇪are underrated. Czechia 🇨🇿is a potential underdog if the jury really rates it highly, but the televote could easily push it further down the standings. Moldova 🇲🇩 – definite NO.

Top 5:

Australia 🇦🇺 and Israel 🇮🇱 look like a good tasty bet. Romania 🇷🇴trade on NO. Bulgaria 🇧🇬is probably a NO because of weak jury votes.

Top 3:

Here I see the greatest value in Bulgaria 🇧🇬on NO. Romania 🇷🇴on NO and Finland 🇫🇮on YES.

And the main Dish:

Eurovision Winner 2026:

Europe 🇪🇺 likes to vote for old continent countries and Israel 🇮🇱. Therefore, the biggest unknown is how Australia 🇦🇺will perform in that regard in 2026. If it manages to secure 3rd place in the televote, it will win @Eurovision .

Finland 🇫🇮winning the televote would completely rule out Australia’s 🇦🇺chances of victory.

On the other hand, if Finland 🇫🇮finishes 3rd with the jury and 2nd in the televote, it should take the win.

The current percentages on @Polymarket reflect the actual winning odds pretty well. If I had to bet right now, I’d go with Finland🇫🇮. I have doubts whether, with Bulgaria’s 🇧🇬viral song and Finland’s 🇫🇮violin in the mix, Europeans 🇪🇺will actually vote for Australia🇦🇺.
On top of that, there’s the huge unknown of Israel🇮🇱with changed rules and boycott.

Personally, I’m going to wait for the jury points to come in so I can grab better odds on Finland🇫🇮. However, if Australia 🇦🇺doesn’t take 1st place with the jury, Finland 🇫🇮will have the win in the bag.

#Eurovisión #Eurovisión2026 #ESC2026 #ESC26 #Eurovision #Eurovision2026

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

If they don’t do the TGE before the World Cup, they won’t do it before the midterms either. The only realistic window is after the midterms, but that’s right at the cyclical bottom and if market prices are weak, we’re realistically looking at 2027 = rekt.

If they were actually watching for good TGE timing, they would have done it long time ago. At least before cycle top. I doubt they even have any real plan.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@TheGreekTrader @jonatanpallesen @EurovisionNewZ Bułgaria is very viral but i dont expect they will recive lot of jury votes.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@Bambardini @Eurovision @Polymarket If you believe in Finland’s 🇫🇮 absolute victory.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Who will win @Eurovision 2026?

My @Polymarket Predictions:

Entry:

Some years have blessed us with songs that were absolute surefire winners for example: Germany 🇩🇪in 2010, Sweden🇸🇪in 2012/2015/2023, or Austria🇦🇹 in 2014. Ukraine 🇺🇦in 2022 and Switzerland🇨🇭in 2024.

But there are also those tricky years, like the battle between Israel🇮🇱and Austria 🇦🇹 in 2018 or the repeat performance in 2025.

It’s worth adding that this year I jumped into predictions quite late, which means you can still catch the tasty underdogs and dark horses by betting before the semi-finals or even DURING Eurovision – just like in 2025, when waiting for better odds paid off.

After this year’s boycott, I don’t see Israel having any real chance of winning Eurovision. If that happens, next year we’ll probably see even more countries pulling out of the contest. This year the boycott by several countries is really messing up any clear prediction of the winner.

My predictions:

Best Nordic Country: Finland 🇫🇮

First Semi-Final Winner: Finland 🇫🇮

Second Semi-Final Winner: Australia 🇦🇺

Here, another interesting bet also looks like a NO on Bulgaria 🇧🇬 and a YES on Ukraine 🇺🇦. Everything depends on the number of TELEVOTES Australia receives – which is one of the biggest unknowns of this year’s Eurovision, but we’ll get to that later.

Televote Winner: Finland 🇫🇮 / Izrael+Finland 🇮🇱🇫🇮

It’s impossible to tell how the rule changes and the boycott will affect the viewers’ voting. It seems to me that Israel is overrated, and it’s entirely possible that Finland ends up winning the televote. Alternatively, the Israel + Finland combo bet giving 69%.

Jury Winner: Australia 🇦🇺 / Bulgaria 🇧🇬 NO

If there are no surprises during the performance, Australia 🇦🇺should win. If something goes wrong, however, Finland 🇫🇮will take 1st place and win the entire Eurovision. Bulgaria 🇧🇬 is a definite NO. France 🇫🇷 is underestimated.

Last Place: UK 🇬🇧or Germany 🇩🇪 / Belgium 🇧🇪 NO

Germany 🇩🇪 suffered the smallest point loss from the boycott, but they have one of the worst running-order positions in the show. Belgium 🇧🇪also won’t finish last thanks to strong vocals and great scenography. It’s also hard to imagine Austria 🇦🇹landing in last place for the second time as host, like they did in 2015. The UK 🇬🇧looks like the current favourite to finish bottom, but even here it’s difficult to gauge the real strength of the performer’s YouTube fanbase.

Top 10:

Bangaranga from Bulgaria 🇧🇬could turn out to be a surprise in terms of jury points – and not in a good way. That’s why I’d avoid this trade at the current odds. Denmark🇩🇰, along with Ukraine 🇺🇦 and France 🇫🇷, is still relatively cheap. Italy 🇮🇹and Sweden 🇸🇪are underrated. Czechia 🇨🇿is a potential underdog if the jury really rates it highly, but the televote could easily push it further down the standings. Moldova 🇲🇩 – definite NO.

Top 5:

Australia 🇦🇺 and Israel 🇮🇱 look like a good tasty bet. Romania 🇷🇴trade on NO. Bulgaria 🇧🇬is probably a NO because of weak jury votes.

Top 3:

Here I see the greatest value in Bulgaria 🇧🇬on NO. Romania 🇷🇴on NO and Finland 🇫🇮on YES.

And the main Dish:

Eurovision Winner 2026:

Europe 🇪🇺 likes to vote for old continent countries and Israel 🇮🇱. Therefore, the biggest unknown is how Australia 🇦🇺will perform in that regard in 2026. If it manages to secure 3rd place in the televote, it will win @Eurovision .

Finland 🇫🇮winning the televote would completely rule out Australia’s 🇦🇺chances of victory.

On the other hand, if Finland 🇫🇮finishes 3rd with the jury and 2nd in the televote, it should take the win.

The current percentages on @Polymarket reflect the actual winning odds pretty well. If I had to bet right now, I’d go with Finland🇫🇮. I have doubts whether, with Bulgaria’s 🇧🇬viral song and Finland’s 🇫🇮violin in the mix, Europeans 🇪🇺will actually vote for Australia🇦🇺.
On top of that, there’s the huge unknown of Israel🇮🇱with changed rules and boycott.

Personally, I’m going to wait for the jury points to come in so I can grab better odds on Finland🇫🇮. However, if Australia 🇦🇺doesn’t take 1st place with the jury, Finland 🇫🇮will have the win in the bag.

#Eurovisión #Eurovisión2026 #ESC2026 #ESC26 #Eurovision #Eurovision2026

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@Eurovision @Polymarket You can trade @Eurovision on Polymarket: https://t.co/4sL6qbplia

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Among the Scandinavian countries, Finland wins hands down. It will be Best @Eurovision Nordic Country winner on @Polymarket.

#Eurovision #Eurovision2026 #ESC2026

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Nailed it. Cyprus and Norway both made it through, plus the NO bet on Armenia. Every single one of the best risk-to-reward @Polymarket bets hit perfectly.

But this is just the warm-up before the main course. Who’s going to win @Eurovision 2026?

#ESC26 #Eurovision

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

The second semi-final isn’t the main dish when it comes to @Eurovision betting, but here are a few of my takeaways on @Polymarket predictions:

The countries that are definitely going to qualify are: Australia, Denmark, Romania, and Ukraine thanks to the war that’s still going on there. I’d also throw Bulgaria’s catchy earworm into the mix.

I’d skip Albania and Malta altogether, or maybe try betting against them (NO) if you’re convinced those countries won’t qualify. The YES bet has way too low a risk-reward ratio to be worth the gamble.

Betting that Cyprus and Norway will both reach the Final is definitely worth the risk.

I think Armenia is a tempting little snack for a NO bet. Azerbaijan is underrated because this year the juries are back voting in the semi-finals, and this country is absolutely loved by them. So I wouldn’t bother with a NO here just for a 4% profit. If someone’s chasing a big R:R, then this is where I’d bet on YES.

Finally, one last thing: even though this is a celebration of music, we have to remember it’s largely a political contest. From my experience last year on @Polymarket , I know that the best juicy opportunity is betting on the winner of the final. So Who will

So who’s going to qualify for the @Eurovision final and not get knocked out in the second semi-final?

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@xcryptopunk @pepeofweb3 @Polymarket They promised booster for pre-election 2024 wallets.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@polymarketbet If they will do linear*

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

The second semi-final isn’t the main dish when it comes to @Eurovision betting, but here are a few of my takeaways on @Polymarket predictions:

The countries that are definitely going to qualify are: Australia, Denmark, Romania, and Ukraine thanks to the war that’s still going on there. I’d also throw Bulgaria’s catchy earworm into the mix.

I’d skip Albania and Malta altogether, or maybe try betting against them (NO) if you’re convinced those countries won’t qualify. The YES bet has way too low a risk-reward ratio to be worth the gamble.

Betting that Cyprus and Norway will both reach the Final is definitely worth the risk.

I think Armenia is a tempting little snack for a NO bet. Azerbaijan is underrated because this year the juries are back voting in the semi-finals, and this country is absolutely loved by them. So I wouldn’t bother with a NO here just for a 4% profit. If someone’s chasing a big R:R, then this is where I’d bet on YES.

Finally, one last thing: even though this is a celebration of music, we have to remember it’s largely a political contest. From my experience last year on @Polymarket , I know that the best juicy opportunity is betting on the winner of the final. So Who will

So who’s going to qualify for the @Eurovision final and not get knocked out in the second semi-final?

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Following the latest @Polymarket update, you can clearly see reduced liquidity across the order books. Market makers and liquidity-providing bots haven’t fully switched over yet. On some markets, liquidity is as much as 20x lower than before. The lack of sponsored rewards isn’t helping either.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

L1 gives the ability to stop the chain in the event of a hack. At the same time, development takes so long that it effectively halts the platform’s growth.

L3 means being dependent on both Ethereum and the Layer 2 provider at the same time this solution seems pointless.

The best approach is an L2 solution with strong relationships with the Ethereum Foundation and companies like Circle. This also enables freezing funds and stopping the chain in the case of stolen assets. Development is fast (for example, using the OP Stack), which allows for dynamic growth and rapid feature deployment.

Additionally, an airdrop in 2026 instead of 2028 equals a much happier community.

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Yeah sure they will print 2 bln USDC from the air to reward users. Or will just spend all money they raised and go bancrupt. Instead making good criteria and AirDrop $POLY from the air by creating value.

[Alex Paz @AlexPaz0X]

There will be no $POLY airdrop

Let me explain before you rage in the comments

Polymarket just announced their own stablecoin

Markets on "will they launch a token" are pumping, and IPO theories are everywhere

But what if the airdrop and the token are two separate things?

They could reward users in their stablecoin: Tens of thousands of dollars for loyalty

No token, just cash

Meanwhile, $POLY stays reserved for the IPO and institutional investors

Everyone wins, users get paid without waiting for TGE dumps

Institutions get security that no one will crash their investment on day one

I haven't seen anyone propose this theory, but it makes too much sense

Polymarket doesn't need a token to reward you, they need a token to go public

But if I'm right and you've been expecting a token drop this whole time, you might be in for a surprise

All for $POLY

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

@0liverVera @grazkag @mustafap0ly It will be worst dont worry just wait few more months :)

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Users bets are coming to @Polymarket :D

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

PolyBank - $PolyAave is comming?

[Phoenix » PhoenixNews.io @PhoenixNewsIO]

POLYMARKET ACQUIRES THE STARTUP BRAHMA, IN EFFORT TO SCALE ITS CRYPTO AND DEFI INFRASTRUCTURE: FORTUNE

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Last fundraising before ✈️

[zoomer @zoomerfied]

[ ZOOMER ]

POLYMARKET EYEING $20B VALUATION FOR NEW FUNDRAISING ROUND: WSJ

[Peter Bee @PeterBeeBSC]

Lets use basic math: 100 users with $10M AirDrop means 1 bln $ of airdrop.
„Thousands” of users getting $1M+ each means another bilions of airdrop.

10% supply at 15 bln FDV means 1.5B $ of airdrop in total.

They would need an astronomical valuation, which is pretty hard to pull off in a bear market. Or releasing an absurdly large supply for a 30-40% drop — it’s also hard to believe that.