cryptopunk

research lion / building @polyflowmarkets

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@GadgetLeo 😂😂😂

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@ugwumx absolutely

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

i believe TCG coins are memecoins of this cycle

in 2021 it was NFTs

in 2024 it was memecoins

now we're watching people spend hundreds of dollars opening digital pokemon packs backed by tokenized cards sitting in vaults

onchain TCG volume went from $10M to $230M in just 17 months

pokemon's 30th anniversary is coming this september, which many see as the peak catalyst for the entire sector

$CARDS has emerged as the primary liquid proxy for the narrative, while platforms like Courtyard, Phygitals, Beezie, Renaiss, Mnstr and Pullfun are creating a growing airdrop meta around tokenized collectibles

the biggest bear case against $CARDS is the unlock schedule

but pre-seed unlocks are already underway and the most significant team unlocks don't start until next year

if physical pokemon mania continues spilling onchain through september, don't be surprised if TCG coins become one of the strongest narratives of the cycle

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

i think Horse makes a good point here

buying $BTC at $15-16k after FTX felt much easier because the market was in full panic mode

it looked like a clear capitulation event and one of those rare long-term opportunities where fear was massively outweighing reality

today the setup is completely different

bitcoin ETFs are live, institutions have entered the market, and the digital gold thesis is already widely accepted

most of the major bullish narratives that once felt underappreciated have now been priced in

on top of that, Bitcoin has become increasingly tied to Strategy and Michael Saylor's ability to keep the machine running

if that mechanism ever breaks, it could create pressure on BTC that wasn't there before

then there's the quantum computing question

not an immediate threat, but a long-term uncertainty that the market will eventually have to address

that's why buying $15k BTC after FTX felt obvious

buying BTC today doesn't

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

It felt a lot easier and obvious to buy into that capitulation back then. I am not sure any levels are must-buys now. I want to say 30-40k would be great spots but who knows. I think Bitcoin has a really tough road from here because it has gone through basically every narrative, and has a Saylor and quantum issue.

I always lean much harder into established trends, in which case I defer to some basic long term moving averages.

Also, much easier to join after a breakout of +6 months of left-for-dead sideways conditions.

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@durial crazy shit

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@Applecoraline def the final one (possibly)

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

it's been 1 year and 4 months since OpenSea said something big was coming

OpenSea's reported revenue has gone from ~$1.54B in 2022 to just ~$25M in 2025

even waves didn't meaningfully change the trajectory, and a token launch likely would've accelerated the decline once the incentive-driven activity disappeared

so instead of doubling down on NFTs, the team appears to be moving into one of the most profitable sectors in crypto: perps

let's see how it plays out

[Zack Brenner @zjbrenner]

Who wants early access to perps on @opensea ? 👀

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@ethena @coinbase W

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@standotsui hahaha thanks!

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@Tom_Degen68 lmao

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

HelloTrade was built on MegaETH btw

now it's moving to Monad

what are we missing?

[HelloTrade @hellotradeapp]

HelloTrade is moving to @monad.

We remain focused on our mission to make global capital markets more accessible to everyone around the world. We’re excited to build alongside the Monad team, who share our vision of bringing this future to life at global scale.

Stay tuned for further updates as we continue progressing through Alpha testing.

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@reddy42836 https://t.co/ZHLuihwUty

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

people are trying to sell their locked $LAB allocations OTC in telegram groups

some offers are showing up around $1-1.5 while $LAB still trades near $20, implying a 92.5-95% discount to spot

the problem is that locked holders can't easily hedge without taking significant funding risk, while buyers know that if a large unlock or sell-off hits, the token could reprice much lower very quickly

that's why even a 90%+ discount isn't attracting much demand

crypto is never boring

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@whizonit @Polymarket UMA is the oracle Polymarket uses to resolve disputed markets

when a market outcome is challenged, UMA token holders vote on the final resolution

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

a $20B company

billions of dollars in prediction markets

and disputed outcomes are effectively decided by 9 UMA wallets.

Bloomberg found that over the past year, nearly 2,000 Polymarket contracts were disputed through UMA

in April 2026 alone, 230 disputed markets representing more than $1B in trading volume went through the process

9 wallets accounted for roughly half of all UMA voting power used in Polymarket disputes over the last 3 years

Bloomberg also found that disputed markets processed more than $1B in trading volume in April alone

UMA voters are rewarded for voting with the final outcome and penalized for voting against it

as a result, disputes often become less about determining what happened and more about predicting where the largest voting blocs will land

examples include:

- Ukraine-Trump mineral deal
- TikTok ban before May 2025
- Zelenskyy classic suit
- Houthi strike on Israel
- MSTR Bitcoin sale

Polymarket, Risk Labs and Eigen Labs were reportedly working on improvements to the resolution system

that effort has since been paused

sure, disputed markets still represent less than 1% of all Polymarket contracts

but when billions of dollars can ultimately depend on a voting group this small, people are naturally going to question the process

@shayne_coplan

[willo2 @willo2_Poly]

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.

I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".

Here's what happened:

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@GadgetLeo 😂😂😂

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@GadgetLeo @Polymarket hyperliquid?😅

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@0xPulsss discord roles in hibachi?

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@0xPulsss welcome to crypto

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@gregory_festus i wouldn't recommend buying this

https://t.co/gE1CjOyWnI

[cryptopunk @xcryptopunk]

@fraey0 the seller locks up stablecoins as collateral and releases them only after the tokens unlock and are delivered