durial

ex-professional osrs player,
falador massacre expert,
woodcutting specialist

[durial @durial]

let me give a proper explanation on how this shit works because seeing a lot of fake news

when you see these insane candles happening on random tokens like LAB, RAVE, Momentum etc it’s because of a group of people do what is called “active market making”

almost all of these “active market makers” are based in China/Asia. many claim to be able to achieve results like RAVE and LAB but few can actually properly deliver

typically these AMMs will either approach projects prior to launch or after launch (if certain conditions can be met). but scammy projects also look to approach them

the deal is usually that the AMM will put up the capital needed to push the token to the insane highs you see, and in return for the project letting the AMM “crime” their token they split whatever the profits are once the crime is complete

so how does the crime work and how do the people involve profit?

the first thing you’ll notice is that all these tokens have perp listings (usually binance perps) but very few spot listings

this is intentional. the first major requirement for this crime to happen is absolute control of the spot supply of the token

by that I mean the team/insiders need to control basically the entirety of the float. RaveDAO for instance, insiders were estimated to control over 98% of the spot supply

this is vital because spot supply that isn’t controlled by insiders can be sold into the spot price being driven up by perps. to help prevent this is another reason why tokens with basically no spot listings or liquidity are chosen. if there is a lot of spot supply ready to be dumped on the AMM then it could bankrupt them, meaning the crime has failed

as it is their capital at risk, AMMs are even asking projects to put them on all the multisigs for the token supply, to ensure that nothing can be dumped while the crime is happening

so once supply is completely controlled then what?

these AMMs don’t just commit the crime from one or two binance accounts. the accounts would likely be frozen instantly. instead they have 1000s of KYC’d accounts which operate in unison to drive the perp price up

because no one has supply to sell, there isn’t any other way to drive the price back down except to short

but this is where they get you

the AMM can squeeze any short placed, as every shorter will have their breaking point. either their own tolerance or a liquidation point. every short that gets liquidated or stopped out is profit for the AMM

add onto the fire that because of huge dislocations between underlying and perp price, you get some insane funding rates. as I write this LAB is -1% an hour shorts pays longs (over 8000% a year). this makes it even harder for shorts to hold their position, plus the AMM is making bank on their long positions funding

BriskCapital is right when he says they wouldn’t have let him win with this size of a short position, especially publicly. his mistake was trying to short it in the first place, which is exactly what the AMMs want you to do. where do you think the 7 figs he lost went to?

then whenever they decide the crime is complete they pull the rug and you see the collapse candle to zero. because they are the only entity holding the bid up, they have complete control over when and how the price collapses (meaning they can also likely join in on the short)

my advice is to not touch these tokens. if you want to feel something just buy a small amount for fun. definitely do not buy anything sizeable, do not make any trades on leverage and DO NOT SHORT

you are trying to compete against an entity that has complete control over where price goes

[BriskCapital @BriskcapitalXBT]

Lots of you saying I got unlucky on $LAB and should've held the short longer. Let me be clear. I was the target. If I kept that position open they would have pushed it to $40 no question. This market hunts liquidity and I am not here to get wiped out completely.

This is exactly why I probably won't share any shorts with size on coins like this in the near future. Too dangerous. I closed to survive. That is how you stay in this game.

[durial @durial]

@ImTrizzy what happened to the 50s? 😆

[durial @durial]

should you buy a token or not? here are 4 categories

1. good token + good project
2. good token + bad project
___________________________

3. bad token + good project
4. bad token + bad project

the vast majority of crypto tokens fall into categories 3 and 4

don't buy those

[durial @durial]

@based16z funny how those watches go from looking like ugly, cheap, plastic toys to works of art, built at the pinnacle of engineering and materials

all based on a slider scale of your net worth

[Vydamo @vydamo_]

Doxxed ct personality who lives in one of the most censored countries in the world tries to convince you he cares about privacy

[durial @durial]

@vydamo_ this might be one of your best

[durial @durial]

wait honeyxbt is charging $50 a month for trading calls? lmfaoooo

for a year straight she was saying to buy the dip on PENGU as it went -90%

[durial @durial]

similar price action and end result, but this is different to the AMM strategy

this is just running a classic short squeeze

team isn't involved + it happens over a much, much quicker time period (just a number of hours in this case) + the multiples involved are nowhere near as egregious (TRB is only being sent 2-3x rather than over 100x)

[durial @durial]

let me give a proper explanation on how this shit works because seeing a lot of fake news

when you see these insane candles happening on random tokens like LAB, RAVE, Momentum etc it’s because of a group of people do what is called “active market making”

almost all of these “active market makers” are based in China/Asia. many claim to be able to achieve results like RAVE and LAB but few can actually properly deliver

typically these AMMs will either approach projects prior to launch or after launch (if certain conditions can be met). but scammy projects also look to approach them

the deal is usually that the AMM will put up the capital needed to push the token to the insane highs you see, and in return for the project letting the AMM “crime” their token they split whatever the profits are once the crime is complete

so how does the crime work and how do the people involve profit?

the first thing you’ll notice is that all these tokens have perp listings (usually binance perps) but very few spot listings

this is intentional. the first major requirement for this crime to happen is absolute control of the spot supply of the token

by that I mean the team/insiders need to control basically the entirety of the float. RaveDAO for instance, insiders were estimated to control over 98% of the spot supply

this is vital because spot supply that isn’t controlled by insiders can be sold into the spot price being driven up by perps. to help prevent this is another reason why tokens with basically no spot listings or liquidity are chosen. if there is a lot of spot supply ready to be dumped on the AMM then it could bankrupt them, meaning the crime has failed

as it is their capital at risk, AMMs are even asking projects to put them on all the multisigs for the token supply, to ensure that nothing can be dumped while the crime is happening

so once supply is completely controlled then what?

these AMMs don’t just commit the crime from one or two binance accounts. the accounts would likely be frozen instantly. instead they have 1000s of KYC’d accounts which operate in unison to drive the perp price up

because no one has supply to sell, there isn’t any other way to drive the price back down except to short

but this is where they get you

the AMM can squeeze any short placed, as every shorter will have their breaking point. either their own tolerance or a liquidation point. every short that gets liquidated or stopped out is profit for the AMM

add onto the fire that because of huge dislocations between underlying and perp price, you get some insane funding rates. as I write this LAB is -1% an hour shorts pays longs (over 8000% a year). this makes it even harder for shorts to hold their position, plus the AMM is making bank on their long positions funding

BriskCapital is right when he says they wouldn’t have let him win with this size of a short position, especially publicly. his mistake was trying to short it in the first place, which is exactly what the AMMs want you to do. where do you think the 7 figs he lost went to?

then whenever they decide the crime is complete they pull the rug and you see the collapse candle to zero. because they are the only entity holding the bid up, they have complete control over when and how the price collapses (meaning they can also likely join in on the short)

my advice is to not touch these tokens. if you want to feel something just buy a small amount for fun. definitely do not buy anything sizeable, do not make any trades on leverage and DO NOT SHORT

you are trying to compete against an entity that has complete control over where price goes

[BriskCapital @BriskcapitalXBT]

Lots of you saying I got unlucky on $LAB and should've held the short longer. Let me be clear. I was the target. If I kept that position open they would have pushed it to $40 no question. This market hunts liquidity and I am not here to get wiped out completely.

This is exactly why I probably won't share any shorts with size on coins like this in the near future. Too dangerous. I closed to survive. That is how you stay in this game.

[durial @durial]

to give a some additional points:

are the exchanges involved themselves? I have no evidence either way, but I doubt Binance is. if Binance was involved it would be far easier to execute than it is in reality which leads me to believe they are NOT involved.

other smaller, scammier exchanges highly possible. at best exchanges with the token trading on very high perp volume are probably still negligent

yes you can make a good chunk of money if you receive advance knowledge of these moves or if you catch the money early and ride it up. the main risk buying later on is you don’t know when the rug is going to be pulled, which will likely result in a 90%+ loss

the reason I advise NOT to trade these, is that it is exactly what the AMMs want you to do. they wouldn’t be able to make any money if not a single other person took a position in the token - their strategy relies on others participating in the trade (yes this includes liquidating longs on the way down also)

teams that claim they have no knowledge of what is going on are straight up lying. Yes you can have smaller short squeezes without the team knowing, but you cannot have these insane moves without the absolute control of spot supply that I mentioned - meaning the team needs to be involved as they are the ones providing this control

[durial @durial]

how do you deal with the fact that the stock market is showing extreme signs of euphoria with what seems like every single person making insane daily gains on basically any AI name

but then at the same time the market just keeps going up anyway

stay max long? you risk missing selling the (in hindsight) obvious top after all high beta names go -20% in one day

go to cash? good job you are now sidelined on the AI supercycle

short? literal suicide

I guess the correct answer is somewhere between 1 and 2

I love my portfolio making new ATHs every single day, but my market anxiety is kicking in. wish it would go up slower 😆

[durial @durial]

remember in Q1 when they said everyone who gave up trading crypto to go trade equities would regret it and it would mark the top of equities and the bottom of crypto

and since then crypto (outside of HYPE and ZEC) has nuked and equities remain up only

[durial @durial]

SIVE up 75% is hilarious

serenity effect tooooooo strong

[durial @durial]

@ahitposter nah after reading what this guy did he definitely deserves to go to jail

but agreed that there are so many people who are probably far worse offenders who never have any problems

[durial @durial]

lmfaoo this guy going to jail for stock manipulation

>buy lots of shorted dated calls
>post hey we just bought NVDA here is our thesis
>stock pumps on buy thesis being spread around and covered by outlets
>instantly dump all calls for big profit

yeah you deserve to go to jail

[Citron Research @CitronResearch]

Today I was found guilty. Amongst other things, for recommending Tesla, Nvidia and Meta back in 2018.
Not once did anyone say I lied. The government’s own agent admitted it on the stand. There were no false statements.
So now a truthful opinion that ends up making money is illegal. Is this America?
We disagree with the jury and this does not stop here. We will keep fighting for free, honest speech and opportunity, the backbone of this country.
This is not over.

[durial @durial]

closed these both for a small L

only exposure I have in crypto atm is spot hype (up good) and spot asteroid (down bad)

[durial @durial]

longed bnb and aster a bit late but getting on board the train as I think they could have a bit more to run

was busy last night w/ champions league final so sub-optimal entry today but still relatively low downside I think (-10% to -20% max probs)

[durial @durial]

seems I bought the top

[durial @durial]

@0xMerp depends on your tolerance for losing the $1m

certainly is possible but only if they are utterly prepared to lose the $1m very quickly

[durial @durial]

@yieldyumi $15-20?

think in deep bear you can reaccumulate a $9...

deep bear coming soon...

[durial @durial]

when I was in Thailand in december, the best pad thai I had was in random restaurant by the side of some public attraction

had a 2.7 star rating on google maps and people claimed food poisoning and awful service

the service part was true, it was slow as hell but it was the best pad thai i’ve had in my life