peter fairley

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven" Paradise Lost

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

German biz moving out

[Richard @ricwe123]

Germany is not merely being deindustrialized.
It is being dismantled.
Piece by piece, factory by factory, job by job.

And the people driving this destruction are not hiding in the shadows.
They sit in government offices, corporate boardrooms, and political institutions.

German journalist Patrik Baab puts his finger on what Berlin would rather keep buried: Germany’s corporate giants do not appear to fear the collapse of German industry, because many of their decision-makers no longer have their interests anchored in Germany.

Cheap energy is gone.
Factories are closing or moving abroad.
Jobs are disappearing.
The industrial backbone is being hollowed out.

And yet the DAX executives remain remarkably calm.

Why?

Because Germany, for them, is increasingly just another balance-sheet entry.

American investment funds hold enormous influence.
Production is being shifted to China, the United States, Uzbekistan and elsewhere.
Germany is being treated less like the industrial heart of Europe and more like a cost center that can be cut, downsized, or written off.

Meanwhile, billions are being poured into war.

Not into rebuilding factories.
Not into modernizing infrastructure.
Not into securing Germany’s industrial future.

Into weapons.

And while taxpayers carry the burden, arms manufacturers and investors stand to benefit.

For BlackRock and the global financial establishment, critics argue, Germany’s decline does not necessarily represent a disaster.
It can represent an opportunity.

That is the brutal logic of the system being described:

One side loses factories, energy security and jobs.
Another side collects contracts, profits and influence.

War and deindustrialization begin to look less like separate crises and more like two sides of the same destructive process.

And still, Berlin talks about “transformation”
“Solidarity”
“Adaptation”
“Modernization”

But behind the carefully chosen words, Germany’s industrial foundation is being stripped away.

The factories disappear.
The skilled jobs disappear.
The energy advantage disappears.
The economic independence disappears.

And the political establishment keeps insisting that everything is under control.

The real question is no longer whether Germany can afford this course.

It is whether Germany can survive it as the industrial power it once was.

Because a country does not remain an industrial nation after its factories, energy security, skilled workforce and productive capacity have been dismantled.

At some point, there is nothing left to "transform"

There is only something left to rebuild.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

Forecasts 5.3% 5yr yield in 5 years

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

I put together this chart for my paying members area today, showing the 5Y5Y forward real yield versus a derived model using existing Cleveland Fed data that goes back further than the market-based data. In essence, real yields are pricing in a 5-year real yield of around 3.08% five years from now.

Assuming the 5Y5Y forward inflation expectation runs at around 2.3%, that implies a nominal 5-year rate five years from now of roughly 5.3%, perhaps 5.4%.

We have returned to pre-QE rates. The days of easy monetary policy are over, at least based on current market expectations.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@0ivankaTrump1 A) absolutely right

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@Melgibsonact 1 yes

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@jfkinexile yes

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@BobEUnlimited Copilot says 'This document is about Schwab’s business relationship with ETF providers, not about charging you extra. You still just pay the ETF’s expense ratio (built into the fund), and Schwab earns its cut from the sponsor behind the scenes."

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@PeakFinInv Heresy Financial on Youtube, does not use % of GDP...he uses % of something else which is near 3%, high but not horrible and short covering is diminishing margin and fueling the stock rally

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@christankerfund Where is the area with naked drug addicts?

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@bearlyai Stack Overflow is the world’s largest online Q&A community for programmers, where developers ask technical questions and get peer‑reviewed answers

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@MorseReport 2 of 3 native US Men not working is alarming, but part of that is skewed by men living longer in retirement plus those working under the table to collect medicaid, snap etc

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

As a small town guy, I don't see it as 'white supremacy' it is 'urban supremacy' ; black supremacists are part of urban supremacy. I moved to the city and was grateful to enjoy things like YMCA basketball and swimming pools I never had in my small town.

[Daily Caller @DailyCaller]

🚨 CHAOS in Tennessee: Democrat state Rep. Justin Pearson confronts a law enforcement officer following a dispute, screaming “BOY!” in the officer’s face before calling him a “stupid motherf*cker.”

The confrontation came after lawmakers approved a redistricting map making the congressional seat Pearson is currently running for far less favorable to Democrats.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

Woke thinking might be called Marxist Scholasticism as it echoes the dogmatic, Aristotelian Scholasticism in universities & Government pre-1740. Not until newspapers became widespread around 1740 did Enlightenment and Scientific thinking become more dominant in universities.

[Breitbart News @BreitbartNews]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: You can't earn a billion dollars.

Ilana Glazer: That's right.

AOC: You just can't earn that.

Glazer: That's exactly correct.

AOC: You can get market power. You can break rules. You can do all sorts of things. You can abuse labor laws.

Glazer: Yup.

AOC: You can pay people less than what they're worth.

Glazer: Yup.

AOC: But you can't earn that, right?

Glazer: That's right.

AOC: And so you have to create a myth that -- since you didn't earn that, you have to create a myth of earning it.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

Rithm Capital CEO Michael Nierenberg: Our stock is extremely undervalued right now https://t.co/6yOQWGJjsa

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

Grandpa knows best

[Milton Friedman Daily @MiltonFriedmanW]

Milton Friedman on 4 ways to spend money:

1) Your money on yourself (you’re careful about both cost and quality)
2) Your money on others (you care about cost, less about quality)
3) Someone else’s money on yourself (you care about quality, not cost)
4) Someone else’s money on others (you care about neither)

The last one is how government spending works.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@al_xdpg You mean a pullback, higher high for RSI divergence, THEN a correction?

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

U mean a pullback, higher high for RSI divergence, THEN a correction?

[Alan Cohen @al_xdpg]

$QQQ Another chart suggesting a pullback, rather than a correction is RSI. It is extended but the configuration doesn't say the punchbowl is OTD. A decent neg divergence and break below 70 is the warning. Don't let them scare you out but U do U!

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@christankerfund You were hoping for no war but ships would be rerouted even worse each year so ship rates would always increase.

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@OilHeadlineNews Reported by who?

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

Activism as a self serving fund raising business. Southern Poverty Law center now has $600 mil and is still fund raising with pretend enemies everywhere.

[John Stossel @JohnStossel]

The world is getting better!

But when I listen to activists, everything sounds dismal!

Why? Because:

“For activists, success is a threat,” explains @JohnTierneyNYC. “It's going to put you out of business unless you find a new cause.”

[peter fairley @peterfairley]

@steve_hanke With other organisms it is called an invasive species destroying the local ecosystem and they have strict border restrictions