Peter "The Disciplined Trader"

Christian; Financial Trader; Investor

[Michael Maloney @mike_maloney]

The @Coldcard attack was not a failure of Bitcoin, it was 3rd party security infrastructure. But gee, many have lost their life savings…what a crushing blow and a reminder that if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

This was possibly one of the worst weeks in the history of Bitcoin.

Many people believed they had done virtually everything right. They bought a respected hardware wallet, generated their seed offline, followed established best practices, and still lost significant amounts of Bitcoin because of a vulnerability affecting @COLDCARDwallet seeds generated on or after March 2021.

The vulnerability went undetected for 5+ years.

I think this will permanently change confidence in self-custody.

Over the years, I experimented with many different hardware wallets. I intuitively never trusted any one of them enough to store a serious amount of Bitcoin.

These are all startups manufacturing small $200 devices that people use to secure life-changing amounts of wealth. Most users have never audited the code. I have never audited the code in sufficient detail. I do not have the time or technical expertise to independently verify every component of a device, its firmware, its entropy generation, and its supply chain.

There are also many potential points of failure.

The software could contain an accidental bug. An insider could intentionally introduce a vulnerability. A supplier could compromise part of the device. A firmware update could create an issue. The random-number generator could fail in a way that almost nobody notices.

Everyone purchasing the device is signaling that they may eventually store significant wealth on it. That makes the entire hardware and software supply chain an extremely attractive target.

Something like this always felt inevitable.

I have always believed that attempting to store a meaningful amount of Bitcoin on your own requires multi-vendor multisig, with keys generated independently using different hardware and different software. The keys should also be stored in different physical locations.

One device should be able to be completely compromised without causing you to lose your Bitcoin.

Even with that architecture, I have always felt some level of uncertainty. I have also owned MSTR, ASST, GBTC, and IBIT in significant size. Self-custody is an incredible tool, but its risks were clearly greater than many people understood.

I believe self-custody will survive, but it has permanently changed.

The current wave of Bitcoin adoption is happening through ETFs, treasury companies, and institutional custodians. It is largely coming from people who have no interest in becoming experts in private-key generation, hardware security, firmware, backups, inheritance planning, and physical storage.

That makes complete sense.

Securely holding your own keys is so complicated that even the experts building these devices failed to prevent this vulnerability, and the broader technical community failed to detect it for 5+ years.

Free markets naturally produce specialization. Bitcoin remains an incredibly valuable tool. Most people who lack deep expertise in securely generating and protecting private keys will outsource that responsibility to people and institutions that specialize in it.

For someone who wants direct sovereignty over a significant portion of their Bitcoin, the standard should be multi-vendor multisig. If you are uncomfortable with that, use an institutional-grade custodian.

A large amount of Bitcoin secured by one key generated by one hardware wallet carries far too much concentrated risk.

I think that is where Bitcoin custody is heading.

The obvious concern is that institutional custody could eventually concentrate too much Bitcoin in the hands of large firms. That would create censorship, seizure, and confiscation risks.

However, Bitcoin’s portability and settlement properties provide the critical check and balance.

Anyone can spin up a wallet and demand that their Bitcoin be sent to them. Settlement can happen globally, quickly, and cheaply. A person can move from counterparty exposure to direct ownership in a matter of minutes.

Gold never had that property.

Most people did not hold physical gold. Their gold sat in a vault somewhere. You could not rapidly move the gold from New York to Tokyo. You could not easily demand immediate global settlement into an asset you could personally verify and hold.

Gold’s lack of portability and the inability to quickly demand physical settlement helped cause it to fail as money.

Bitcoin solved that problem.

You can leave a custodian, acquire actual Bitcoin, spin up a wallet, demand settlement, and move your wealth into cold storage. You always retain the ability to remove counterparty risk.

That optionality is what matters.

Bitcoin gives every person the ability to hold their own wealth. It gives every person the ability to exit a custodian. It gives every person the ability to demand final settlement into an asset they can personally control.

That ability to hold your own keys is what keeps custodians, governments, and financial institutions accountable.

It is one of the fundamental properties that makes Bitcoin work.

I think we may look back on this moment as one of the darkest periods in Bitcoin’s history. Coins have been lost. Confidence has been shaken. Many of the people with the highest conviction in Bitcoin have been forced to reconsider assumptions they once viewed as guaranteed.

I also would not be terribly surprised if this marked a turning point.

As long as Bitcoin itself remains secure, the failure of one custody method does not invalidate the underlying monetary system. It forces the market to develop better tools, stronger standards, and more resilient custody architectures.

It is often darkest before the dawn.

This week may ultimately mark the end of one era of Bitcoin custody and the beginning of the next major wave of Bitcoin adoption.

[Macarena Olona @Macarena_Olona]

Una Nación sin fronteras es como un hogar sin puertas.

España ha renunciado a la Seguridad.

📍Frontera del Tarajal, Ceuta. En estos momentos.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Expecting a lot of volatility today after the Fed's interest rate decision, since there's a considerable amount of disagreement about what the Fed will do... $VIXY

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Markets saw intense sector rotation today: earnings beats (KO, SHW) & falling oil/yields fueled a ~600pt Dow rally, while tech dragged as AI/chip stocks tumbled worldwide.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

The market does not trade price; it trades human emotion. A profitable system isn't built to predict the chart—it's built to keep your own emotions out of the crossfire.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

The market pays you for managing your emotions, not your opinions. A bad thesis with great risk management will save your capital, but a brilliant insight with zero discipline will leave you with nothing but a smart explanation for why you went broke.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Markets were mixed today as a pause in US-Iran hostilities sent crude oil sliding 6+%, lifting travel/airlines while big tech dragged.

Best Risk-Adj performer: volatility ($SVXY); Worst: Crude Oil ($DBO)

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

The $1,000 account myth:
https://t.co/OrFbdyemlN

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Today's recap: Markets (SP500) steadied today after yesterday's selloff, although tech declined further. Oil sank 3+% on US-Iran talks hopes, but chipmakers lagged on AI capex worries post Google/INTC earnings. Best risk-adj. performer: volatility (SVXY); Worst: semis (SOXX)

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

My latest YouTube video:
Why do smart traders still lose everything?
https://t.co/i5a8joe1As

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Markets sold off heavily today as mounting Middle East conflict pushed WTI oil above $90, reigniting rate-hike fears & higher 10Y yields. Big Tech fell sharply on concerns over surging AI capex budgets. ATR-Adjusted Performers: Best: Crude Oil / Energy; Worst: Tech stocks

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Today's market recap: US stocks slipped today as crude oil surged on Middle East tensions, driving Treasury yields higher and pressuring tech ahead of major earnings. Best risk-adjusted performer: energy ($XLE); Worst: volatility ($SVXY)

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Trading is not about predicting the price, but reacting to it in a rational, systematic way.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Why the moving average crossover strategy doesn't work:
https://t.co/TFIdGm6iZT

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

The tech rout deepened today as AI spending doubts triggered a massive sector rotation out of crowded hardware names. Best risk-adjusted performer: $USCI (commodities); Worst: $SVXY (volatility)

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Semiconductor & AI selloffs dragged major indexes lower today. Best ATR-adjusted performer: energy ($XLE). Worst: semiconductor ($SOXX).

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Following yesterday's soft CPI, June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly dipped -0.3% month-over-month, bringing the annual wholesale rate down to 5.5% (well below the expected 6.2%). Gold and BTC both bid up.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Today’s negative inflation reading wasn't caused by a sudden economic slowdown or fading consumer demand; it was entirely driven by a massive, supply-side drop in the energy sector. Specifically, geopolitical shifts allowed energy prices to collapse.

[Peter "The Disciplined Trader" @peterpark72]

Check out my latest article: The Algorithmic Flattening: What Happens When AI Wins the Trading Game? https://t.co/upSxl4or9j via @LinkedIn