Peter Stefanidis

Political analysis and election monitoring

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Two weeks out. Worth watching:
- Labor v Greens preference fight: Greens open tickets in 15 seats, incl. Werribee and Point Cook
- Coalition's Treaty repeal pledge draws UN adviser criticism
- Has One Nation's surge levelled off?

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

New Lighthouse poll: Coalition 32, One Nation 23, Labor 21, Greens 14.

Our model with it added:
Coalition 55.5–44.5 2PP
Coalition majority 65%
Seats: Coalition 49, Labor 20, One Nation 12, Greens 7

Across all polls, Labor 22.0 still edges One Nation 21.7.

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

The Greens won't direct preferences to Labor in 15 seats. Two are among the closest seats in our model:

Tarneit: Labor wins 49% of our 10,000 simulations
Albert Park: Labor wins 47%

In seats this tight, preference flows can decide it.

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@ghostof_bb I find myself arguing with the algorithm sometimes. Whatever the result on Saturday, there will be learnings from it. Psephology is a science, but it’s an estimated guess at best. And even the best pollsters get it wrong

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Victoria's 8 closest seats are all held by Labor. In Mordialloc, the Coalition and Labor each win 49% of our 10,000 simulated elections. All 88 seats at https://t.co/AIsXw9Nj3a

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@ghostof_bb

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@DJWillo17 thanks Darcy.

Box Hill has me perplexed! have been arguing with my algorithm for weeks. its determined to have Box Hill in Labor's camp and has given me good reasons why it won't flip. my gut (like the bookies) tells me otherwise

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Can Labor hold Werribee and Point Cook on 28 Nov?

Point Cook: 8.3% margin, 58.3% 2CP in 2022. Safer.

Werribee: Labor's primary fell 16.5 pts at the 2025 by-election. Won 50.8–49.2. Knife-edge.

Labor must finish top two in Werribee and win back the minor-party leak.

Seat analysis: https://t.co/yQn4Z9bxzo

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

not quite. she needs 50% after preferences, not just to top the primary. on 42 she only needs about 8 more points from the 36% that went elsewhere (Labor, Greens, minors). the independent on 22 would need around 28 of those 36, nearly 4 in 5 preferences. that's why Wilson holds it in every sim

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@theheraldsun Our model agrees Niddrie is in real trouble for Labor. Ben Carroll won it by 6.7% in 2022.

Win chance across our 10,000 simulations: Coalition 78%, Labor 11%, One Nation 11%.

Expected primary vote: Coalition 31%, Labor 27%, One Nation 22%.

#springst

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@curtin_rc @dyrenfurth Our model backs the "Labor goes backwards" call. Labor won 56 seats in 2022; across our 10,000 simulations it averages 21, and a Labor majority turns up in fewer than 1 in 100. https://t.co/AIsXw9Nj3a

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

15 days out. Worth watching:
- Unions and business groups slam Labor's $1.3b WorkCover dividend
- Australia Institute: no Aus election has seen AI ads and deepfakes this widely
- One Nation's Pickering: education as top export a 'crying shame'

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

How wide is the range? Our model's 90% seat ranges over 10,000 simulations:

Coalition 30–66
Labor 8–36
One Nation 1–28
Greens 3–12

Coalition majority 63%, no majority 36%. One Nation's spread is the biggest unknown.

https://t.co/AIsXw9Nj3a #SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Labor has spent about $3.1m on online ads since August, more than five times the Liberals (just over $500k). One Nation: about $21k.

Our model hasn't moved: Coalition 55.3–44.7 2PP, majority in 63% of simulations.

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Labor's Martha Haylett won Ripon by 3% in 2022. Our model has Labor gone.

Win chance across our 10,000 simulations: Coalition 60%, One Nation 40%, Labor under 1%.

One Nation leads on expected primary vote, 33% to 31%. Preferences decide it.

https://t.co/AIsXw9Nj3a #springst

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

@kevinbonham @FarCueCunce Looking forward to it Kevin

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

16 days out. Worth watching:
- Liberals disendorsed Williamstown candidate Paul Lindemann, but he stays on the ballot as the Liberal
- One Nation candidates say they're funding their own campaigns
- Labor's $420m pledge for 550 extra weekly V/Line trips

#SpringSt #VicPol

[Peter Stefanidis @petestefanidis]

Labor's Martha Haylett won Ripon by 3% in 2022. Our model has Labor gone.

Win chance across our 10,000 simulations: Coalition 60%, One Nation 40%, Labor under 1%.

One Nation leads on expected primary vote, 33% to 31%. Preferences decide it.

https://t.co/AIsXw9Nj3a #springst