Imagine telling someone in 2021 that in 5 years you’d have:
- 30k Nasdaq
- 7600 S&P500
- 51k DJI
- 4500 Gold
And despite it all… BTC would still be trading below 69K.
Poetic.
@zubearc@texasrunnerDFW@StealthQE4 “Chart is the same”. Meanwhile, SPX has doubled BTC’s return over the last 5 years. One is trading at ATH while the other is 40% away. Lmfao
@texasrunnerDFW@StealthQE4 Undervalued relative to SPX & gold based on what exactly…? SPX has earnings, CFs and BV. Gold has 5000+ years of industrial and monetary demand. It’s tough to say “undervalued relative to the others” without relying entirely on past performance.
BTC is just ~15% above its 2021 ATH. Compare that to where SPX & gold are now relative to their 2021 highs (55% and 145% respectively). Hell, even look at how underwhelming the 5yr return is. So you sat through 70% drawdowns just to underperform the market by a mile.
It’s fine to trade, but anyone holding it as a LT investment is getting smoked.
@AntilesSeth@dampedspring Forward P/E is more of a sell-side marketing tool than anything. How on earth can anyone extrapolate current growth into the future with the array of political & macro issues staring us in the face?
The US bond market crisis is intensifying.
While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.
The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.
Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve.
At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year.
The question then becomes:
How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis?
And, who folds first?
We are two weeks from oil shortages and demand rationing according to Bloomberg.
Not months…weeks.
Anyone that thinks this oil shortage isn’t a serious immediate crisis is delusional:
$AMD Pictured below — all of the open gaps left behind during this euphoric run. Not pictured is the inevitable $170 gap way below. Each will be filled in due time… let’s revisit after Q3.