Just because it was right to be 24mths behind, 24mths ago (in a trending market) doesn’t mean it’s right today.
The truth is markets aren’t driven by earnings - the volatility is in multiples, and flows drive those. Leverage is behind the market, plugging cashflow gaps across all host of industries and asset classes. Now funding conditions are tightening sharply, there’s a broad degrossing across all the momentum trades generating leveraged interconnected losses and the potential for synchronized cascading sales…at a time when real economy credit delinquencies are nearing GFC highs across all loan segments……..and you want to tell me earnings drive the market and everything is A-ok even though jobs are shrinking, margins are down and producers can’t even pass through the tariffs. Trade is collapsing and so is production. All global housing markets are now declining at once. Base money is contracting everywhere, timely cpi reads are sharply down, and the credit impulse is negative everywhere. China’s having a hard landing. The BDCs are running out of PE lines to draw and the PE cos are running out of bank loans to draw. The bond market is seizing up, so far with most pain in leveraged loans, while high yield spreads rise. There is a time bomb of upcoming payout obligations from real money LPs massively exposed to privates, who will have no choice but to sell equities. Repo markets are seizing up and Fed Funds is tightening. The Japanese futures are approaching limit down after government collapse. The entire levered altcoin universe just got liquidated in an hour. The only earnings in the market are non-cash, derived of delayed capex D&A.
But I guess, sure, why not.