IPO Supply vs. Demand for @SpaceX
Supply / lockup schedule -
Potential 9% unlock on the second trading day after 2Q26 earnings. That is roughly 2x the IPO float.
Demand / index buying schedule -
T+5: passive/index buying could equal ~7–10% of the float.
Total T+5 to T+15: passive/index demand could equal ~17–25% of the float.
Analysis (done by AI) -
Day 0–15: Thin float + passive buyers + price-insensitive demand likely create a sharp supply-demand squeeze.
Day 15–70: Air pocket. Index buying is mostly done.
Day 70–180: Digestion phase. More shares unlock, but a higher float may also force additional index buying.
Day 366: The 51% unlock is the biggest overhang. Actual selling could be much smaller if Musk does not sell.
Upside kicker: S&P 500 inclusion. If SpaceX becomes eligible after the float expands, S&P inclusion could create a second wave of passive buying.
JUST IN:
INSIDERS SAY STRATEGY MAY BE FORCED TO SELL PART OF ITS $BTC HOLDINGS AT A LOSS TO REMAIN SOLVENT.
MICHAEL SAYLOR MAY NO LONGER BE ABLE TO COVER THE DIVIDEND.
THE MARKET IS READY FOR THIS.