@BrettErickson28 I really enjoy your posts and read them regularly. Do you think Iran should care more about converting temporary leverage into durable material/military advantages before a potentially much less restrained post-midterm Trump emerges?
@ZhangQizhan@MEPPonPM@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade The Financial Times today is making essentially this point. Warsh is increasingly pushing back against the perception that he is Trump's creature, and his anti-inflation positioning is strengthening his credibility.
@ZhangQizhan@MEPPonPM@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade It cuts both ways. Warsh now has an unusually large credibility incentive to demonstrate that Trump does not control the Fed. If inflation remains clearly too high, employment is stable, three members already voted to hike, and Warsh then blocks tightening......
@MEPPonPM@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade Are you expected the CPI print to be softer than consensus projections? I think the consensus is not soft or worse. But there's a big camp that thinks only a soft CPI will avoid a hike. For this reason I think the base case is CME Fedwatch up a bit more today.
@MEPPonPM@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade Why did you dump earlier? You could have entered at 40c just days ago. What's changed fundamentally? I'm in on no hike for around 50c too btw.
@JoeHoo57@HormuzLetter Multiple outlets (Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, LiveMint, Israel Hayom, Xinhua, and others) are citing the same Wall Street Journal story from 9 August based on U.S. officials.
@DarioCpx@HFI_Research@calvinfroedge@GavMcCracken@chrismartenson I was long because I knew the escalating war would outweigh SPR release, China's demand pull back, etc. However, it will likely nuke again soon when Trump is forced to TACO in the coming weeks.
@DarioCpx Manipulation retreating or just facts on the ground? Ships burning in Bab el-Mandeb and continued escalation around Hormuz don't help oil prices.
@martynov014 You don't even realize what you're looking at. He didn't fade France. He split shares. You can that in any market. You split $1 into 0.5 Yes, 0.5 No regardless of current price.