Phil Argue

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@chigrl The wealth gap is huge, but has closed considerably. Since ‘09, increase in wealth…

Top 1% = +186%
Bottom 50% = +776%
Top 1% / Bottom 50% = 78x (‘10) > 12x (‘23)

The bottom 50% took it on the chin in ‘08, so coming off a low base. Also, been flat for 2 years.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@LynAldenContact Aggregate checking account balances suggest it’s a lot more…

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@dampedspring @chamathGundlach Interesting. I hadn’t thought of the bid-offer spread. Thanks!

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@dampedspring @chamathGundlach Why are they so attractive for the issuer? Is it just the commission? Or is there another source of profit embedded in them?

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@saxena_puru I struggle to square this data with checking account balances. Roughy $6.3T at the end of 2Q (HH + business). Nearly 25% of GDP - highest since 1950’s.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@WarrenPies @jessefelder @3F_Research Similar story for small caps.

Indexed to 0 at S&P lows.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

My business cycle index continues to recover from its January low. The economy has been surprisingly resilient.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@biancoresearch Definitely see it in earnings for consumer goods companies.

HT - @TheTranscript_

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@tosa05909757 @MasterPandaWu European Debt Crisis was in full swing.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@SamRo $PEP

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@saxena_puru Agreed. Guidance this quarter will be telling.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

S&P 500 earnings estimates appear very optimistic given the macro backdrop.

ISM Manufacturing firmly in contraction territory while EPS estimates assume +10% EPS growth in 2023 & 2024.

$SPY $SPX

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@Mayhem4Markets Big expectations for EPS in 2H with full year 2023 estimates +10%.

Guidance will be important.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

S&P 500 earnings estimates appear very optimistic given the macro backdrop.

ISM Manufacturing firmly in contraction territory while EPS estimates assume +10% EPS growth in 2023 & 2024.

$SPY $SPX

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Probably safe to say that financials aren’t going to grow EPS at 20% in ‘23 as estimates expect.

Hard to believe discretionary growing at 23% either.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

S&P 500 earnings estimates appear very optimistic given the macro backdrop.

ISM Manufacturing firmly in contraction territory while EPS estimates assume +10% EPS growth in 2023 & 2024.

$SPY $SPX

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

BCI does a pretty good job of hinting at the direction of corporate earnings over the next 12 months.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Business Cycle Index ticked higher last week, moving further away from levels seen during prior recessions.

Coupled with this morning's jobs report, the Fed may have to hike more than the market currently expects.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Long-term chart with recessions. Historically, BCI is at/near -1.0 heading into recessions.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

@thatgirltrader It’s not just $NVDA. Same story across semi’s.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Corporate earnings over the following 12-months follows BCI reasonably well. Currently suggests a ~20% decline in S&P 500 earnings.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Business Cycle Index (BCI) update:
Last week's strong building permits data offset widening credit spreads. Still firmly in negative territory, but not (yet) at levels consistent with prior recessions.

[Phil Argue @PhilArgue]

Long-term chart of BCI since 1968. Certainly not good, but not at 2008 type levels.