Worth remembering re the BoE move, that it's mostly about oil/energy costs, and the last two days have seen those change rapidly. Note too though that it highlights UK's ridiculous energy fragility - your mortgage is rising because our MPs refuse to prioritise energy security.
If a couple earns £300,000 between them ...
… in the UK, they get to keep £182,000
… in Texas, they get to keep £224,400
That's why talent leaves the UK, and why talent goes to Texas
Prices, since start of the year.
European natural gas: +210%
UK natural gas: +193%
Heating oil: +130%
Gasoline: +89%
Brent crude: +80%
US crude oil: +76%
Coal: +39%
There’s a lot of self-serving spin emanating from the UK government about how virtuous it is re fiscal consolidation.
Here are the facts.
Labour inherited an OBR budget deficit forecast of £87bn (3.1% GDP) for FY2024/25. After R Reeves’ 1st disastrous budget the actual deficit was £153bn (5.2%). Massive jump.
Labour inherited OBR budget deficit of £77bn (2.7%) for FY2025/26. After RR’s disastrous 2nd budget that turned out to be £133bn (4.3%).
So in its first two years it added over £120bn to borrowing/deficit (despite huge increase in taxes).
The OBR forecast it inherited for this FY2026/27 was £69bn (2.3%). It is now forecast to be £116bn (3.3%). That looks like an underestimate. More likely to be closer to £130bn again.
Inherited budget forecast for 2027/28: £51bn (1.6%). Latest forecast: £97bn (2.9%).
Inherited budget forecast for 2028/29: £39bn (1.2%). Latest forecast: £86bn (2.5%).
Far from fiscal consolidation Labour is forecast to borrow an incredible £260bn more over the 5 years from 2024/25 than the forecasts it inherited. Despite the tax rises.
Which will continue. Alone among G7 countries the IMF projects the UK tax burden to rise by 3.7% of GDP 2025-31. The only other country with a rising tax burden is France (0.8%). Italy is static. Rest of G7 have falling tax burden.
And let’s not forget Labour’s so-called ‘fiscal consolidation’ is all backloaded to end-decade. Unlikely to happen. So taxes will have to rise by even more.
I am optimistic because The Conservatives have learnt from our mistakes. We are going the right way.
We are ready to fight for our values. Ready to win the argument. Ready to govern.
Ready to get Britain working again.
Thank you #CPC26.
Kate McCann: Taxpayers are to pay £70,000 for the refurbishment of radical cleric Abu Hamza's wife’s home. A £1.7 million pound home and only she lives there. Is that fair?
Angela Rayner: I’m not going to get into individual cases.
Kate McCann: You’re the Housing Secretary.
If you are feeling poorer since Labour gained power. This is why..
Employer National Insurance increased from 13.8% to 15%.
• The employer NI threshold cut from £9,100 to £5,000.
• Income Tax and National Insurance thresholds frozen until 2031.
• Capital Gains Tax increased from 10% and 20% to 18% and 24%.
• Business Asset Disposal Relief increased from 10% to 14%, then 18%.
• Investors Relief increased and its lifetime allowance cut from £10 million to £1 million.
• Carried interest taxation increased and moved towards the Income Tax regime.
• Dividend tax rates increased by two percentage points.
• Savings income tax rates increased by two percentage points.
• Property income tax rates increased by two percentage points.
• Most unused pension funds brought into the Inheritance Tax net.
• Agricultural Property Relief restricted.
• Business Property Relief restricted.
• Inheritance Tax thresholds frozen for longer.
• The non-dom regime replaced with a more extensive residence based system.
• VAT imposed on private school fees.
• Business rates relief removed from private schools.
• Stamp Duty increased on second homes and buy to let properties.
• The Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime abolished.
• Pension salary sacrifice benefits capped at £2,000 before National Insurance applies.
• The Cash ISA allowance cut to £12,000 for most under 65s.
• A 22% charge introduced on interest from cash held inside non cash ISAs.
• Restrictions introduced on transfers and cash like holdings within ISAs.
• The Energy Profits Levy increased and extended.
• Investment allowances for oil and gas producers reduced.
• A new Vaping Products Duty introduced.
• Tobacco duties increased above inflation.
• Vehicle Excise Duty increased for many new cars.
• Electric vehicles brought into the Vehicle Excise Duty system.
• A new mileage tax announced for electric and plug in hybrid cars.
• Air Passenger Duty increased.
• Climate Change Levy rates increased.
• Plastic Packaging Tax increased.
• A new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduced.
• Making Tax Digital extended to more landlords and self employed people.
Oh FFS come on!… surely they can’t be this jealous! …. 95% of all businesses in the UK are micro businesses.
owners go without wages, holidays, pensions and maternity leave. They remortgage houses, take personal guarantees on loans and spend years worrying.
The ONLY upside they have is that one day they MAY be able to sell their business.
If capital gains tax is raised again, why would they bother?
employees take none of that financial risk yet owners are expected to risk everything, now for nothing!
destroying the private sector looks like this! and its greedy supporters are too stupid to understand what happens when people taking the risks stop bothering. And they will !
Oh come on 🔥
@TorstenBell You’ve never had a proper job. Sir Jim grew up in a council house, worked hard, took immesurable risks and has created more jobs than your little socialist head could compute.
Andy Haldane, former BoE chief economist, was at first mentioned as an Andy Burnham economic adviser.
His phrase - fear that Burnham leads a socialist gvt with better TikTok videos - will resonate.
Who who have though that:
- Triple lock raise pensions
- Inflation busting public pay increases
- Massive expansion of the state
- Allow people to not work with ADHD
- Give everyone who wants it free money
- Borrow endlessly
While standing on the neck of the productive class, that the economy would start collapsing.
Leftists should not be anywhere near the economy.
@RidgeandFrost@SkyNews@SophyRidgeSky Depressing that these people make the most important consequential decisions for this country. So out of their depth.