Daniel Kahneman: the day Saddam Hussein was captured, the same news "explained" both the bond market going up and going down.
Treasuries rose - Bloomberg's headline said the capture made the world safer. Half an hour later treasuries fell -the new headline said the capture boosted appetite for risk.
Same event, opposite stories. The market moved first; the pundits reverse-engineered a reason. That, he says, is how financial commentary actually works.
"Our confidence comes from the coherence of the story - not the evidence behind it."
"The conclusion comes first. Then we believe the arguments that support it."
"System 1 is largely indifferent to the quality and amount of evidence."
~55 min, free. why the market's "explanations" are stories told after the fact ↓
The purpose of a high IQ is to solve puzzles that other people need solved so they will give you money and status and power.
If you waste this ability on video games and navel gazing about the horrors of existence, you are going to have a bad time.
@realGeorgeHotz@xai@OpenAI How do we make sure idiots and people with malice in mind do not get access to AI? Not firing shots at you, just genuinely curious.
It seems to me that we cannot control this.
@historyinmemes apes do not ask questions. Though many express themselves through sign language, they do not use it to question others, a significant cognitive difference between apes & humans (& certain politicians)
However, at least once, a parrot did. He asked what color he was
I was having sex with a follower just now (from behind) and she was making loud sounds of pleasure. I have not experienced this before, so I immediately decided to confront her about it
"Excuse me, what is pleasurable about this?"
She turned her head around and looked up at me "well... it's pleasurable because I feel... special"
Intrigued, I probed further "But can you feel anything on a physical level? Is the physical movement of my pipi causing any of the pleasure you are experiencing?"
She paused thoughtfully "Sorry, but no, I don't really feel anything physically. I know that logically, you are inside me, but I don't think I... or any other girls feel anything from that kind of thing. At least based on conversations with my close girl friends, it's got nothing to do with physical pleasure. I'm moaning because... well... because I feel like you chose me Bruce, when you could have chosen any of your followers. It feels incredible to be the one who won, and I guess I really get off on that, on winning"
This is probably one of the most interesting insights into women I've ever heard, and I thanked her for it before I threw her out. It explains why the amount of effort I've put into sex has never once changed the amount of pleasure a girl has experienced, while every +1000 followers I gain, it seems to increase it exponentially
Girls love the idea of being chosen because they love the idea of beating other women. They love victory. A girls life is a never-ending turmoil of insecurity and doubt. The only moment they get a temporary respite is during a sex act with a worthy man. After this, they immediately revert to an insufferable psychological hell
Girls spend their whole lives desperately praying for such a moment, which is why they squeal in ecstasy when it finally happens. A man could hit the gym regularly, try his hardest to master all sexual techniques, and expand every single ounce of energy to make a woman feel good — but if he only has 1 follower on Twitter, she will feel nothing. Without proof of his ability to choose her over other beautiful women, there can be no pleasure for her
Many men out there are trying hard to give girls orgasms through technique and feel endless frustration when they fail. This is a complete waste of time. Instead, the fastest route to her contentment is to concentrate on growing your follower count by posting hard and deploying as many cryptocurrencies as possible. Things changed for me completely for me at 190,000 followers. I wish the same for all of you. Keep going and never give up
It is widely accepted that the way to make money in VC is to be contrarian and right
This is absolutely false in crypto venture - all that matters is your ability to front run the narrative
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on the bizarre memetic economy we call home
🚨🚨Today I'm publishing my thesis on what I think could be the defining feature of the next 12-24 months in crypto.
Settle in, this is a long one. The thesis is called:
"A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything"
Not financial advice.
1. To paraphrase Steve Martin, there’s a fine line between meditating, and staring at the wall like an idiot.
3. Same for journaling and scribbling on the wall like an idiot.
4. Most people should move a lot faster, and also say yes a lot more.
5. Failing sucks. Learn how to succeed.
Off to lift weights…
@quant_arb There was a huge arb with CRV token staking when convex finance first launched. Then @bneiluj decided to do public service by posting about it🫠