The @ethereumfndn has awarded cp0x a grant to build an open-source tool for comparing DeFi risk assessments. We are starting work and invite the community to contribute ideas, data, corrections and code here or on github: https://t.co/TIBsHVS2P1
Up to 80% win rate when you read this correctly.
Most traders see rejection, few understand failed auction.
And even fewer combine it with volume absorption bubbles.
This chart shows how: Failed Auction + Volume Absorption = High-reward entries
You’ll learn to spot:
• Where price fails to continue higher/lower
• Where aggressive orders get absorbed
• The exact point momentum shifts
• Why this often leads to sharp reversals
This is not a random setup.
It’s reading exhaustion and participation together.
Study this image closely. A video will follow.
The great slaughter: the last 24 hours
- 100+ dm´s answered
- 3 telegram calls with heavier cases (i only do that in extreme cases when i feel it is needed and i suspect people are suicidal or thinking of harming themselves, very rare though, so 3 calls in 24 hours says a lot about how heavy this crash was)
- 1 person on the way to a mental health clinic on my advise, was seriously suicidal after losing 2M+, entire account liquidated
- most people with heavy losses dealing with it in a pretty mature way, they know operating in this market is very risky and that one has to take responsibility for one´s own actions. Many will never touch leverage again....a good thing.
- seems some people losing it all will make them focus more on inner development, pain tends to force people inside and reflect, a good sign
- crazy to read that even people that had stop-losses in place got wiped due to exchanges not executing/overloading or orders getting filled with huge spreads so that losses were still enormous
- some people asking me for money since they have nothing left. sorry, but you can understand i cannot go down that road, it is also disrespectful to simply ask straight out
thank you, was a lovely day, 12+ hours of screen-time on dm´s and calls, but let´s not do this every week...i got a life too
but happy to help...really...thanks for sharing all your stories and hardships...they will remain in total confidentiality
dm will remain open
look inside once in a while
From our user (DEFI OG):
So fucking tired of these scam crypto platforms. Meet the new – Plume @plumenetwork.
Some of you might remember: they took deposits before mainnet. I deposited too. RWA chain blah blah, so at TGE I picked to hold tokens for a boost. In June I checked back, claimed a small part (1/9 total).
Main unlock came in August. I tried to claim — got an error: tokens locked. Then on their site everything was blocked “due to jurisdiction.” I was in Europe, my country wasn’t even on the banned list. Looked like an IP bug, figured it would pass.
Tried again later, still nothing. Today I contacted support. They tell me I had to register on a brand-new platform to claim, without that, it’s impossible. But deadline already passed.
Couple of questions:
1. Where the hell did this “deadline” come from? I already deposited, why should I monitor your side-products?
2. How do I register if your IP detection is broken?
Oh wait, I got the answer in support: when blocked for “US users,” their team literally suggests using a VPN. Doesn’t matter if you’re from the US or not. Just use VPN.
This shit in crypto is exhausting. A team pretending to be an RWA project, openly telling people to break laws. And of course, the “beautiful deadline” trick: miss it, you lose 85% of your tokens (for me ~100k usd).
We all know how this ends. Same old bureaucrat scam model: happily take deposits, but for payouts you need to sing and dance on some new platform with VPN and deadlines.
Just fuck off, scammers.
We’re excited to share our new permissionless interface, this time for @MorphoLabs .
Source code: https://t.co/6xY1mB2TDj
Live build: https://t.co/90OuCX2rgK
Enjoy DeFi without interface restrictions: https://t.co/BSJf7FYpbe
Currently live on cp0x: Morpho, @SkyEcosystem , @Uniswap , @aave , @Balancer & @sparkfinance . Comment which interfaces you’d like to see next.
And we need support: the project is growing as a pure public good, and we’re looking for an RPC partner (discounted or ideally free).
@infura, @Alchemy, @dRPCorg or others, maybe you'd be interested?
If you’re open to collaborate, DM us or reach out at [email protected]
Light chat about the importance of sitting on your hands and not always needing to be in an active position, from yesterday's stream. This applies mostly to retail discretionary traders.
"There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen."
Woke up to tons of fake YZY PnL posts. "Our group COOKED". "We're the insiders". Thousands of likes on each post bc small brain see big number. Wtf wrong w this space lmao yall building up accs who are legit growing following just to scam you.
Space desperately needs cleansing.
how to reframe suffering
“I’ve been allowed the opportunity to build evidence and prove to myself once again that I am someone who can persevere against all odds.”
Easiest HyperEVM airdrop setup:
1. Go to https://t.co/VIZefRikc6
2. Enter how much money you want to farm with
3. The AI (specially trained, obsessively optimized) - picks your best strategy.
4. Don’t like it? Switch to one of the other 3
5. Follow the steps
6. Profit
P.S. There several easter eggs hidden on the website.
First few to find them might get something special from me 👀
(send proof of find to my DM or post and tag me)
Market Selloff Dynamics + Bottoming
The goal of this write up is to give you a bit of insight on how I spot HTF pivot points in markets. We want to understand the psychology behind risk unwinding and use that to our advantage to potentially spot bottoms.
1. Low Conviction Sells First
- When uncertainty hits, sellers dump what they least desire i.e., lower conviction coins will top first and bleed early.
- Think about it logically. If you're in a pinch and needed cash irl, you're not going to sell your prized possessions, you're gunna sell the crap you never use.
- Likewise, traders will sell what they’re least emotionally invested in to build cash when uncertain or want to decrease risk.
- It’s not a coincidence that this has happened every HTF top this cycle. Alts don't rally after, they rally during. They also top weeks before BTC even shows an ounce of weakness.
- It’s an early warning. Smart traders de-risk before the crowd even knows what's happening.
2. Risk vs. Quality
- Let's go back to the earlier metaphor. People will hold onto their quality prized possessions for as long as they possibly can. It's not until they're desperate that they will part with them.
- The most desirable coins, more often than not, will attempt to hold their gains for as long as possible. This is why BTC always looks fine and you see dozens of "Why is everyone panicking, BTC looks great" tweets weeks before sell offs.
In selloffs:
a) Junk sells early
b) Quality sells late
c) Everything sells eventually
Watch the order of events. It’s a map of stress flow.
3. Reflexivity Kicks In
- Early weakness causes more weakness.
- Once a whale starts to unload into exhausted demand they begin to induce weakness. Classic signs of distribution, absorption, exhaustion, trend loss etc.
- A character shift in a risk asset will make the first order of experienced traders reassess.
- "I didn't sell top, but the character of the trend has shifted. Time to reduce exposure/close"
- “If this is nuking, what else am I exposed to?”
Suddenly:
Rebalancing triggers more selling
This is reflexivity.
A feedback loop of diminishing risk appetite.
4. Volatility: The Dance
Before many big selloffs in BTC, markets go quiet. Volatility drops. Trends become ranges. Complacency peaks.
Then, boom.
Let's talk a bit about balance and imbalance.
- Balance is achieved once the market begins to agree on what's expensive and what's cheap. It's a dance. Equilibrium.
- Equilibrium is calm. What's known is known. Speculation diminishes. Volatility compresses.
- The dance continues until one party gets bored, tired or wants to go to the bar to get another drink. i.e. buyers or sellers get exhausted; changes to supply/demand.
- Equilibrium is damaged- and once it breaks: Imbalance.
- Price displaces violently. Value becomes unclear; volatility explodes. The market craves balance and will actively seek it.
- Price often returns to areas where recent balance was formed- hvn, orderblock, composite value etc.
- This is where you get the sharpest bounces.
"First test, best test"
- Subsequent tests will provide diminishing reactions. Things become structural. Price accepts its new home. Volatility compresses. Balance is found once again.
5. The Flow of a Selloff & Spotting Bottoms
Capitulation isn’t the beginning of the end; it’s the end of the middle.
a) Alts vs. Bitcoin
- This cycle alts often do the bulk of their selling before BTC capitulates.
- Recent example: Fartcoin sold off 88% from its top before the late February BTC capitulation. Since this is true, we can begin to use it as an edge when looking for exhaustion (bottoming)
- The strongest alts will begin to show relative strength (exhaustion) earlier as BTC is still being hyper-volatile and looking for new balance.
- In order words, look for good alts to begin to achieve balance as BTC is in the later stages of imbalance.
As participants, our goal is to spot these divergences:
“Has momentum shifted?”
“Is volatility compressing?”
"Is the velocity of selling diminishing?"
“Is it holding while BTC makes new lows?”
Signs of bottoming in Q2:
- Momentum loss (Fartcoin)
- SFP/Deviation (Hype/Sui)
- Higher lows vs BTC’s lower lows (Pepe)
In short: alts front-load their pain, then decrease in velocity as BTC bottoms.
Remember this how we spot "good" alts.
The weak stay weak.
The strong start whispering before the market speaks.
b) Bitcoin vs. SPX
Now a little exercise for you all
Combine all the concepts in this thread and maybe the following begins to make sense:
Summer '23: BTC topped before SPX, bottomed earlier
Summer '24: BTC topped before SPX, absorbed the macro related SPX crash at range low
So far in '25: BTC topped before SPX, absorbed a 20% SPX crash at range low
TL;DR
Bottoms are a process, not a moment.
Alts First
Bitcoin Next
SPX Last
Watch for the structure, not just the sentiment.
Insane story:
> someone spun up dozens of fake X crypto accounts
> all giving away “free Ledger wallets”
> actually shipped them out
> sealed boxes, legit packaging
> but pre-hacked firmware inside
> wallet gets drained if you deposit >$500
> $58K+ stolen so far
> all from people thinking they got lucky
> most giveaway accounts got suspended this week (new ones will likely re-appear soon)
> next time you see a giveaway… you know
> and if you get a cold wallet from anywhere but the official site
that’s on you
web3 IQ test
Alright, I heard you
You wanted the setup even easier to follow?
So I made a FREE site for you.
Interactive. Step-by-step.
Takes you exactly where you need to go.
Try it out: https://t.co/WzJ6mVzxos
And send it to a friend who’s still confused.
P.S. If APYs change - just plug in new ones and see if it still prints.
hyperliquid
Game of MITO is still the best tesnet EVER
Only 294k users played 🫠
If you're Diamond or Emerald, you are going to feast on $MITO
What Rank did you ended up with? 👇
"CT used to be good, people used to share value"
What if I told you we can go back to that?
Here's a few things we can do to change the culture✍️
--
1) Engage with value when it appears. Give feedback to the chads who take time out and write stuff out for you.
Don't just bookmark and move on.
And try not to default to only engaging with jokes, memes, slop because it feeds back to even more of it (I'm guilty of posting a lot of crap the past year too, don't worry I know).
2) Try not to demonize people for getting shit wrong.
Especially if they have a proven track record over time.
They had the balls to share their ideas with you.
If you want them to keep sharing, maybe don't call them the worst trader ever when they go on a losing streak.
3) Perfectly calling bottoms is awesome, but understand it's still just one trade. The same way a 360 between-the-legs dunk and a layup are both 2 points.
There's no bonus money for style points in trading.
It's not what matters most, so stop judging people's skillset solely by their entry price on the PnL card. "He bought the bottom, she was bearish at the lows" Nobody cares.
This is a market, not a high school cafeteria popularity contest.
4) Understand that win rate is a meme. My lifetime win rate is around 50-60%, but my capital growth is over 100x since I started trading. I'm sure many of you are in similar boats. Some traders I know have a 90% win rate but bet smaller or take lower R setups. Some traders I know have a 20% win rate but can keep their losses small and run it up like you can't imagine when they're hot.
Adding to the last two; "public calls" as a indicator for competence is even worse.
- We all share ideas we may not trade.
- We all take trades we don't share.
- Don't judge someone off their "calls", judge them off their PnL curve.
5) Lastly, to the legends- try not to let the few bad apples get under your skin. There's tons of us who have learned from your guidance and wouldn't be here without you. <3
rule #1
Refuse to get on any zoom or google meet etc. calls or click on any calendly links.
No I will not download a third party "specialized" software for the call lol
TG or discord calls only - either that or send your own link. I believe there's a private call you can set up on brave as well.
repeat after me:
we can do this my way or you can fuck off lol
1k likes & I drop a "How to make it this bull cycle" thread
Portfolio logic & Trading strategies
I'll cover small, medium & larger portfolio sizes
URGENT WARNING
A lot of people are getting phished by signing a bad signature from a fake HL website.
How the hack works
1. You visit a fake Hyperliquid website.
2. They request you to sign this transaction (ConvertToMultiSig)
3. The hacker now controls your Hypercore assets
Understanding Coinbase Flows
Why does price pump when CVD on Coinbase is dumping? Why is Coinbase Premium rising while delta is mostly red?
Let’s break it down.
On Coinbase, you’ll often see aggressive sell volume (CVD falling) but price holding or rising. People in the chat say, look, they are selling big, but it's not the case, that’s actually intentional passive buying, which is happening this entire rally, every dip is being absorbed by limit buyers.
Here’s how (I assume):
Market makers use TWAP + iceberg bid strategy
They place hidden limit buys (icebergs), sell into their own limit bids via TWAP algos, absorb real selling without exposing demand. This makes the tape look bearish - but it’s not.
Coinbase Premium tells the truth. When BTC trades higher on Coinbase vs Binance: That’s spot-driven demand, usually from U.S. institutions.
If you’re seeing:
📉 CVD down
📈 Price flat/up
🟢 Coinbase Premium green
It’s not weakness. It’s highly likely that ETFs are buying. I recommend not shorting such flow.
I made an illustrated picture with explanations and descriptions where you can see Price, CVDs and Coinbase Premium in order to understand how it actually happens. Enjoy!
If you want to learn more about orderflow and trade execution based on such flows, feel free to join my Discord for more: https://t.co/bR6V64eyKF