Kenny Pickett Enthusiast

Kenny Pickett/ Bub Means Enthusiast/ Capel Crew Hater / Grog enjoyer

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Ole Miss +3 (+102) at Florida

Model: Ole Miss 28, Florida 27

Florida's O is real (54 ppg, 8th in PPA). But Elo has a 191-pt gap for the Rebels, and FPI has Ole Miss 13th vs Florida 16th.

A key number plus juice on a one-point game.

Research, not betting advice.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Texas A&M +8.5 at LSU

Model: LSU 26, A&M 25

Line opened LSU -3. We didn't chase it.

- Elo has A&M higher (1824 vs 1786)
- FPI has LSU by 4.6, not 8.5
- 2025 SP+: A&M 20.7, LSU 10.3

Market is pricing the Clemson blowout. Need A&M within 8.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Penn State -9.5 vs Wisconsin

Model: PSU 33, Wisconsin 15. 91% win prob.

That's a 17.8-pt margin against a 9.5 number.

Wisconsin's stuff rate is 9.1%, 138th in FBS. PSU runs 58% of the time.

If you only play one, play this one.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Vanderbilt +9.5 at Auburn

Model: Auburn by 1.6. A 7.9-pt edge.

- Elo: Vandy 1742, Auburn 1668
- 2025 SP+: Vandy 20.3 (#11), Auburn 11.6 (#29)
- Auburn's offense is 83rd in PPA
- Auburn gave up 44 at home last week

A 27–24 loss cashes.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Iowa ML (+180) at Michigan

Model: Iowa 24, Michigan 23

Iowa's D is #1 in the country:
- Def PPA -0.25 (1st)
- Opp success 24.1% (1st)
- 4.3 ppg allowed

Michigan's offense is 70th in PPA. Elo has Iowa 1841–1735. Plus money on a pick'em.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Missouri ML (+195) at Miss State

Model: Mizzou 53%, 28–27
Books: about 32%

Line moved from -1.5 to -6.5. SP+ (15.0 vs 12.0), Elo (1690 vs 1663), and 2025 SP+ (14.4 vs 4.1) all lean Mizzou.

Mizzou's D is 5th in havoc (25.4%). Paid 2-to-1 on a coin flip.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Week 4 Best Bets 🔒

Missouri ML (+195)
Iowa ML (+180)
Vanderbilt +9.5
Penn State -9.5
Texas A&M +8.5
Ole Miss +3 (+102)

6 locks, 0 leans. The model has Mizzou and Iowa as 53% sides, and the books are paying like they're 32%.

Week 3: 3–2–1, +1.1u
Write ups Down Below

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Ohio State lost to Texas and is still No. 1.

Vanderbilt is in. A top-15 SP+ team sits 24th. A 4–0 team can't crack the top 9.

The model explains all of it.

Schmeeds Locks Top 25, Week 4, with a take on every team 👇
https://t.co/GSZlnsmh6K

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Florida's offense went from +0.04 to +0.68 PPA per pass play under Jon Sumrall.

That's not a typo. That's one of the biggest jumps in the country.

But the number that actually explains the 3–0 start isn't on offense.

Broke down what really changed 👇
https://t.co/ZzA8yPhlin

[JaLobos🔴 @ProjectStrider]

Calling Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker working class

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

Calling this guy the LeBron James of soccer is so disrespectful to my glorious king

[FOX Sports @FOXSports]

Christian Pulisic provides an update on the injury he faced

@JennyTaft

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

This is the problem with USMNT. They need technically good players, not just guys that do a lot of cardio

[em 🖤🩵 @dayglowraven]

you know who plays with heart and didn’t get called up

[River Cracraft Fan Club @CracraftFan]

We need to retire the “Captain America” phrase if these are the two guys we are giving that nickname to

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

@LeSauce69420 And that’s bad how exciting?!?!?!?

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

Do they not have fucking SOD in that 3rd world country

[(P)USB(C) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 @ccfc_07]

Yeah we're seeing more than one ACL injury this world cup what the fuck are these yanks doing

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

@LeSauce69420 Idk what I would do without @LeSauce69420 reporting

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

@LeSauce69420 Hey Buck, big fan! Have you ever heard of positional value?

Thanks,
Pickett

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

@LeSauce69420 Absolutely nothing ethical about Kobe Bryant

[Kenny Pickett Enthusiast @Pickettlover]

#46 on Miami looks like a real
Game changer!!!! Cristobal needs to start getting him involved more if he wants to win a natty!!!! ‼️‼️‼️🔥🔥🔥🔥 #TheU #feedhim #CFBPlayoff

[Chris Karpman @ChrisKarpman]

BREAKING: Turning down significant interest from Michigan, Kenny Dillingham signed a new contract to remain at Arizona State, Dillingham told his staff via text message this morning, according to sources. My full story for @SunDevilSource:

https://t.co/QdJvVuYA5f