Schmeeds Locks

UF Analytics

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

4-0 SWEEP YESTERDAY 🚨🔥
THE READS WERE PERFECT.
THE BANKROLL GOT HEAVIER.
BANG!!! 💥

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

It wasn't pretty but Pitt ML ✅ (+136)

[Bob Pompeani @KDPomp]

Best angle. The right call. Wide left #Pitt wins

[Bob Pompeani @KDPomp]

Best angle. The right call. Wide left #Pitt wins

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

6) Penn State -3 at Northwestern

One 4-point loss to Wisconsin moved this line
PSU is still +25.3 per game on the season

Model: PSU by 7.6
Edge: 4.6 pts

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Schmeeds Locks: Week 5 🔒

6 plays. Every one has at least a 4.6-point edge on the DraftKings number.

Week 4 went 2-4. Back to the numbers. 🧵
https://t.co/4DsigiKNO3

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

5) Illinois -10 vs Purdue

Purdue allows 39.5 ppg and just lost 49-10 to Notre Dame

Model: Illinois 40-23
Edge: 7 pts

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Ole Miss +3 (+102) at Florida

Model: Ole Miss 28, Florida 27

Florida's O is real (54 ppg, 8th in PPA). But Elo has a 191-pt gap for the Rebels, and FPI has Ole Miss 13th vs Florida 16th.

A key number plus juice on a one-point game.

Research, not betting advice.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Week 4 Best Bets 🔒

Missouri ML (+195)
Iowa ML (+180)
Vanderbilt +9.5
Penn State -9.5
Texas A&M +8.5
Ole Miss +3 (+102)

6 locks, 0 leans. The model has Mizzou and Iowa as 53% sides, and the books are paying like they're 32%.

Week 3: 3–2–1, +1.1u
Write ups Down Below

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Texas A&M +8.5 at LSU

Model: LSU 26, A&M 25

Line opened LSU -3. We didn't chase it.

- Elo has A&M higher (1824 vs 1786)
- FPI has LSU by 4.6, not 8.5
- 2025 SP+: A&M 20.7, LSU 10.3

Market is pricing the Clemson blowout. Need A&M within 8.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

Missouri ML (+195) at Miss State

Model: Mizzou 53%, 28–27
Books: about 32%

Line moved from -1.5 to -6.5. SP+ (15.0 vs 12.0), Elo (1690 vs 1663), and 2025 SP+ (14.4 vs 4.1) all lean Mizzou.

Mizzou's D is 5th in havoc (25.4%). Paid 2-to-1 on a coin flip.

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

@GMoneyATS

[ESPN Insights @ESPNInsights]

Pitt's Mason Heintschel is the first player in ACC history to throw for 6+ TDs in multiple games in the same season‼️ He's the first FBS player to do so since 2021 (C.J. Stroud and Bailey Zappe).

He's only the second player in ACC history to have multiple such games in a career, joining Deshaun Watson who did so in 2014 and 2016 🏈

[Schmeeds Locks @schmeedslocks]

@GMoneyATS Like Penn st -10 vs Wisconsin