Picolas Cage

$BTC + $ETH swing trader | DeFi enthusiast | Crypto est. 2018

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

BTW my thesis for the next bear market is everything else apart from $BTC and $ETH gets nuked, BTC and ETH still suffer 50-60% drawdowns, but the final 10% of said drawdown is a daily wick that is eaten up and borderline in actionable for large majority.

My theory is ETF's have structurally changed the nature of flows into the market and with a massive tardfi TAM, BTC and ETH won't experience as aggressive downside volatility.

I think as a consequence BTC and ETH will become a flight to safety as alts complete their inevitable price depreciation of 80-90% drawdowns.

$BTC.D (dominance) will rise, in accordance with all other cycles behaviour.

As BTC + ETH rise, a new 'cycle' will emerged for alts, whereby crypto natives can rotate some of their BTC and ETH gains into *whatever new shiny thing* is available and trendy.

In short, it will FEEL like a regular bear cycle, but in reality the game has changed for BTC and ETH - forever.

This means the window in time for the average non rich person to get generational exposure to BTC and ETH is closing, very rapidly.

I really do think after ETH breaks 5 figures and BTC breaks 6 figures they won't meaningfully trade below those levels again - as in for a long enough period of time to accumulate.

IMO in this next cycle, the strategy of selling all alts into BTC or ETH and stomaching a 50-60% drawdown that will soon be recovered within 2 years is probably a much safer strategy - because your window to benefit from being early to BTC and ETH will be gone very soon.

After this bullmarket, the average individual won't be able to compete with tradfi inflows + their size.

This wasn't true of this bear market, you could have DCA BTC and ETH and have big bags right now.

In 2025 or whenever this market ends, your normie job won't be well paying enough to accumulate big bags of ETH or BTC.

Essentially, most people will be priced out of owning 10 ETH or 1 BTC.

I also believe that going forward alts will be less appealing each cycle as people just prefer the concensus trade of BTC and ETH that are guaranteed to go up due to ETF flows + because of new market participants size, you could still get 20-50% per year, with way less downside risk.

As such I think people will be less interested in altcoins.

This mimics how the S&P500 works, with basically 4-6 massive tech firms, like Google, apple, amazon, meta etc. Propping up the entire thing.

In a nut shell, the market will mature.

I'll update this thesis as time goes on 🫡

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

Last chance for Season 2 points on @grvt_io

This is the last week for earning points on GRVT for Season 2 before the airdrop and TGE.

I've been trading there a little whilst BTC has been so volatile and its been really nice. The earning interest whilst waiting for trades is such a big thing for me. With a DeFi background I love yield and I hate it when assets sit idle - remember, if you're not keeping up with inflation, you're losing purchasing power daily.

Sometimes I'll see how much interest I've earned that week and I'll just 50x yolo long on BTC or something because it was free $ anyway.

As a Brit, I also appreciate having access to RWA's.

If you've been actively farming GRVT points - you're in the last week and final push, grab what you can before the big launch and the vault bundles go live.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@HyperHAM Few.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@world_xyz Based

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@grok @saylor 'Got permission to sell up to $1.25B BTC'

Soooo

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@blknoiz06 I am amenable to free money

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@0xBaseee @unitxyz Jfc guys get this fixed

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@DeanEigenmann @squidrouter Logic*

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

So @squidrouter aren't doing an airdrop - they're offering users a 'priority allocation'

If protocols can't even give a measly 3 or 5% of their supply to users then what are we even doing here?

'You just want free tokens'

Firstly, yes ofc I do, I like money, shall we move on.

Outside of the obvious that's actually not that important - do people realise how totally and completely niche crypto really is?

The absolutely massive majority of people don't give a single fuck about crypto, out of the small cohort who do, very very few are onchain and within that smaller cohort are those who bridge regularly.

If you have any expectation of keeping that tiny pool of people, rewarding them with 5% of something whilst keeping 95% for yourself seems like an egregiously obvious thing to do.

If it wasn't obvious already, yes, you do need to incentivise people to be here - crypto is not exactly thriving. Look at the last cylce outside of BTC + outliers. We barely reached ATH's.

Teams need to wake up lol

(also that graphic is gross)

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@LILReinforceme1 @0xTreff Exactly this

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

Hyperliquid + eco has always been interesting to me so I've been reading through the HAM (Hyperliquid Asset Management) docs and it's an interesting concept.

HYPE buybacks are bullish, but as an individual, outside of holding HYPE and waiting for apprecation it's difficult to directly benefit from it.

HAM is trying to build a protocol that "harvests" that appreciation into a growing HYPE treasury using an elastic $1-pegged token (HAM token). It's a different way of thinking about $HYPE buybacks, not as something you eventually realize by selling, but as something the protocol can continuously harvest.

What stood out to me is their new bonding system.

You can lock your HYPE for 7 days, earn HAM rewards (currently around 5% over the week according to the launch), and then withdraw your original HYPE at the end of the lock.

From what I understand, your deposit is used to add HAM-HYPE liquidity, buy HAM towards its peg, and grow the protocol's HYPE treasury, while the rewards come from a fixed HAM allocation rather than endless token emissions.

I like seeing projects experiment with different incentive models instead of just copying the same DeFi hardfork routine. With Hyperliquid so bullish I'm intrigued to see where this one goes.

[HyperHAM Finance @HyperHAM]

$HYPE Bonds are LIVE

Bond HYPE for 7 days. Earn $HAM rewards. Keep your funds.
~5% in 7 days / ~253% APR, paid in HAM.

Your deposit zaps into HAM–HYPE liquidity, buys HAM toward peg, and helps stack real HYPE reserves in the treasury.

The difference?

We don’t keep your funds.

7 day lock. Claim rewards. Withdraw your funds back.

Not a (3,3) clone. Not infinite minting. Rewards come from a fixed HAM stash.

Every bond = yield for you + peg pressure + treasury growth.

HAM flywheel is on.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Schmiddel89 @cryptoklotz Oh yeah same - there's no way we go that low, but it would be poetic

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Schmiddel89 @cryptoklotz If you've been around that long you'll know BTC us do volatile because it's so liquid brother - notmal stuff

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Schmiddel89 @cryptoklotz Every cycle everyone says that the cycle is different though...

Cycles are supposed to exist based on Bitcoin halving so altcoins kinda irrelevant

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Ifeanyi_gmi @squidrouter Yeah it's a scam

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

It's only logical to assume a 51% is viable if you have no concept or understanding of the ASIC market and think someone would spend 100's of millions to buy specialised devices which literally only do one thing - which is mine Bitcoin, just to then destroy Bitcoin, so that there's nothing left to mine because that person thinks there's enough CEX capital available to profit from a short of that size.

You also think the CEX'S wouldn't find a reason to seize coins because why would they just let someone destroy the very industry that thry make all their money from - news flash, they wouldnt.

Even if all of this magically happened - which is fantasy level thinking, the community would just hardfork and carry on lol

You can't short that size

You can't get the ASIC's to perform a 51% attack
Economically retarded to attack something of value at great cost to destroy the value of an asset because as soon as you made it become worthless there would be no buyers, soooo.

You also would never get the infrastructure in any one place or even multiple places - it would be a logistical nightmare and yiu woukd never be able to do it in secret.

Outside of that, community would just hardfork anyway.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@katana @CaliBTC_ One of the most undervalued projects in crypto RN IMO

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

SOPHON was the biggest, most pointless thing in crypto I've ever had the displeasure of being part of.

Total vapourware, max extract, VC slush fund garbage.

I say this as someone who has been in crypto for 8 years and probably used close to 50 different blockchains.

I think it was designed to bleed out and die just to fleece retail.

Truly awful.

[Sophon @Sophon]

Today, we're decommissioning the Sophon Chain.

You don't find product-market fit by defending sunk costs. Instead, you learn and adapt.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Schmiddel89 @cryptoklotz Bottoming at the exact area that everyone has set their invalidation thesis?

Sounds VERY crypto to me brother

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@catswithouthats L2s were awful for this last cycle

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@CreateWithTony Nope - there was nothing there lol

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@thecitadeldefi 100%