Today's polymarket progress: lost $10 bet on Bitcoin not exceeding $70,000. Rumors of war cost me dearly. Lesson learned: In the future, I will avoid gambling-like betting and try to choose bets with a high margin of error.
The biggest bet was a one-year bearish view on Bitcoin, which is now showing a paper loss.
In addition, my crude oil bets have experienced some drawdown.
Another day, another grinding on @Polymarket
Most of the gains are driven by predictions of crude oil prices. We have President Trump's speech on Tuesday. I think prices will fluctuate. But I still believe crude oil prices will surge, while other markets will crash.
Another interesting finding on Polymarket is the volatility of trading prices, such as betting on a market downturn during a bull run. I use this to short-term trade Bitcoin or Ethereum, buying in when everyone thinks the price won't fall any further, predicting the annual price, such as Bitcoin reaching $50,000 or Ethereum reaching $1,000, and then selling when the market crashes to profit from the volatility. The premise is that I genuinely believe they will reach those prices, and that I can hold them until a suitable price or final settlement.
I believe the @Polymarket offers a tool for asymmetric profit if you know how to use it smartly. For example, if I believe crude oil will reach $140 in April, and I invest $100 in the polymarket betting on "yes," I will get 5 times my initial investment, $500, a 4x return. I would need to use $370 with 5x leverage to achieve this return. The fluctuations in between would be unsettling. But all of this is based on the premise that crude oil will reach $140. If I'm wrong, I will lose $100, and I can consider selling my shares during the process. It's an interesting investment.