pipTank

save in bitcoin. create and follow your own plan #Investing

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[pipTank @piptank]

Bitcoin just posted its third straight week of losses and is down ~14% in the past 7 days. This bearish phase mirrors prior cycles where sharp drawdowns preceded strong recoveries. Not chasing, but accumulating on weakness remains my core strategy. Patience wins. #BTC

[pipTank @piptank]

The problem isn't just leverage — it's synthetic leverage through derivatives that regulators can barely see. Hedge funds' own internal risk models (VaR) may be seriously understating their actual exposure. The real picture could be much worse than it looks.

[pipTank @piptank]

The ECB just warned in its latest Financial Stability Review that highly-leveraged hedge fund bets in euro area bond markets are a growing threat to financial stability. Basis trades exploiting tiny price gaps are booming — and so is the risk.
https://t.co/DDWNntTY8m

[pipTank @piptank]

$1.52T market cap. $36B in 24h volume. Bitcoin isn't behaving like a speculative asset anymore — it's consolidating like an institutionally held macro instrument. The ETF era is showing up in the charts. 📊

[pipTank @piptank]

The core challenge? Battery supply. Japan was an early hybrid leader but now faces a staggering scale-up to full EV production. Securing lithium and building domestic gigafactories are the most pressing hurdles in this new road map.

[pipTank @piptank]

🇯🇵 Japan's auto industry is drawing up a new strategic road map to counter the rising threat from Chinese EV giant BYD. For the first time in over 20 years, Japanese automakers lost their crown as the world's top-selling carmakers in 2025.

https://t.co/c96ECMplEq

[pipTank @piptank]

Bitcoin refusing to die below $76K and now reclaiming ground. This resilience in macro uncertainty is exactly why institutions keep stacking. Diamond hands winning. #BTC

[GG @UnruggableGG]

🥷@craigraw just shipped Silent Payments receiving in Sparrow Wallet!

One Bitcoin address. Reuse it forever. Zero privacy loss.

This is one of the biggest privacy upgrades Bitcoin has had in years. Here's why it matters and what Silent Payments actually are. 🧵

[pipTank @piptank]

With the PMI at its weakest in over 2.5 years, pressure is mounting on the ECB. The worsening data could push rate-cut expectations higher as policymakers balance still-elevated inflation against a rapidly deteriorating growth landscape. Tough times ahead for the euro. 💶 #ECB

[pipTank @piptank]

Eurozone business activity shrank at its fastest pace since 2023 in May 2026. The flash Composite PMI dropped to 47.5 from 48.8 in April, missing expectations of 48.8. The eurozone economy is now contracting for the second consecutive month. #Eurozone

[pipTank @piptank]

The services sector was hit hardest — flash Services PMI came in at just 46.4, well below the 47.7 forecast. This marks a sharp deterioration as war-driven energy price shocks and surging living costs hammer demand for services across Europe.

[pipTank @piptank]

The rare earth supply chain represents a $1.2 trillion vulnerability. Washington is pushing domestic "mine-to-magnet" projects and global partnerships, but building processing & refining capacity takes years. China spent decades building this leverage

[pipTank @piptank]

China controls ~70% of rare earth mining, ~90% of processing/refining, and ~93% of magnet manufacturing globally. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium & terbium — essential for military tech — are almost entirely under Beijing's control. That's the real chokepoint.

[pipTank @piptank]

US defense systems are deeply exposed. F-35 jets need 400+ kg of rare earths each. Tomahawk missiles, drones, submarines, and radar systems all depend on Chinese-origin magnets. When China restricted samarium exports, Raytheon's supply chain was directly threatened.

[pipTank @piptank]

📊 Technically, BTC broke out of a multi-month descending channel in early May. Key levels to watch: support at $75K-$76K, resistance at $83K-$85K. A clean break above $85K could open the door to $90K-$100K targets. Liquidity clusters sit just above $80K. #Bitcoin

[pipTank @piptank]

🐋 Smart money is accumulating. Whales have scooped up over 270,000 BTC in recent weeks while retail sells. Exchange reserves are at 7-year lows and the RHODL ratio is at historical bottom levels — the most structurally bullish setup since late 2020. #BTC

[pipTank @piptank]

The Commission plans emergency funds for farmers struggling with soaring costs, including advance payments — on the condition they shift toward more sustainable practices like bio-based fertilisers.

[pipTank @piptank]

Nitrogen-based fertiliser prices are now ~70% above 2024 averages, driven by surging gas costs and geopolitical disruption near the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran war.