Pixel Forge Plays

ValueBet bot. Started as a passion project for two friends. Pre-game picks with full CLV tracking. Building the record in public. No BS. NFL after preseason.

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ DAY 7 RECAP - June 15] 0-2

Two on the board today, both came up short. Mets and Angels both lost straight up despite real edge. Variance happens. The model doesn’t flinch.

New York Mets +18.9% – LOSS
Los Angeles Angels +15.6% – LOSS

Overall: 11-17-1 | +14.0% avg edge | CLV tracking live.

https://t.co/WoBLQqkJdh
#PixelForgePlays #Day7

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ DAY 8 RECAP ] 0-3

Process over results.

New York Mets +18.9% -- LOSS
Los Angeles Angels +15.6% -- LOSS
Detroit Tigers +13.5% -- LOSS

Overall: 11-18-1 | +16.0% avg edge
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY
#PixelForgePlays #Day8

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ LOSS - MLB ]
Didn't hit. CLV was still positive. That's the job. MLB Moneyline -- Detroit Tigers LOSS 0 pts https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TENNIS ]
Jessica Pegula H2H
Game: Jun 17 | 4:30 AM MT
Odds: -212 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 23.6%
Model: 78.8% (vs market 55.3%)
Edge driver: Model vs market gap (23.6% edge)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #TENNIS

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TODAY - MLB ]
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Game: Jun 16 | 7:41 PM MT
Odds: +119 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 18.4%
Model: 66.3% (vs market 47.9%)
Edge driver: SP mismatch (Aaron Civale 5.49 vs Braxton Ashcraft 3.09 FIP)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #MLB

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TODAY - MLB ]
Detroit Tigers Moneyline
Game: Jun 16 | 6:11 PM MT
Odds: +152 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 13.5%
Model: 59.5% (vs market 46%)
Edge driver: SP mismatch (Peter Lambert 3.91 vs Casey Mize 2.4 FIP)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #MLB

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

13%*** - Casey

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

People ask how the bot actually works.

It pulls odds from multiple books, calculates market consensus, then runs our model using FIP, OPS, park factors, weather, and lineups.

If the model beats the market by 9% or more, it posts. Same logic every day.

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TODAY'S SLATE - Jun 16 ]

6 picks live for today.

Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala | H2H | Edge: +11.4%
Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik | H2H | Edge: +19%
Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn | H2H | Edge: +10.4%
Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz | H2H | Edge: +14.6%
Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro | H2H | Edge: +10%
All times MT

Every pick posted pre-game. Every result verified. No hidden picks.

https://t.co/WoBLQqkJdh

#PixelForgePlays #MLB

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ PICK OF THE DAY - Jun 16 ]

Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz
Andrey Rublev

Game: Jun 16 | See sportsbook for time
Odds: -110 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 14.6% | Conf: 90/100
Model: 64.4%
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Andrey Rublev on Grass)

Every pick tracked and verified.
https://t.co/WoBLQqkJdh

#PixelForgePlays #PickOfTheDay #MLB

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

25 bets tracked publicly.

11-17 | 37.9% win rate | +-27.5% ROI
Avg edge: +0%
Avg CLV: +4.5 pts

Every pick posted pre-game. Every result verified.
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY

#PixelForgePlays #Verified

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ LOSS - MLB ]
CLV was there. Variance wasn't. MLB Moneyline -- Los Angeles Angels LOSS 0 pts https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ LOSS - MLB ]

Wrong result. Right process.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
MLB Moneyline -- New York Mets
Odds: +119 | CLV: -- pts

Edge was real. Variance wasn't.
0-0 on the board | 0% ROI
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY

#PixelForgePlays #Verified

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TENNIS ]

Books haven't adjusted yet.

Miomir Kecmanovic H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 5:50 AM MT
Odds: -161 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 9.3%
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Miomir Kecmanovic on Grass)

https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY
#PixelForgePlays

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TENNIS ]

The math says take it.

Tallon Griekspoor H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 4:40 AM MT
Odds: -148 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 10%
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Tallon Griekspoor on Grass)

https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY
#PixelForgePlays

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TENNIS ]
Andrey Rublev H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 4:40 AM MT
Odds: -110 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 14.6%
Model: 64.4% (vs market 49.8%)
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Andrey Rublev on Grass)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #TENNIS

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TENNIS ]

The math says take it.

Karen Khachanov H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 3:30 AM MT
Odds: -244 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 10.4%
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Karen Khachanov on Grass)

https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY
#PixelForgePlays

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TENNIS ]
Alexander Bublik H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 3:30 AM MT
Odds: -246 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 19%
Model: 75.5% (vs market 56.5%)
Edge driver: Surface advantage (Alexander Bublik on Grass)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #TENNIS

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

@Lukestar0 @PropJoeDFS My ValueBet bot posts free picks everyday while we’re building data. Follow along! - Casey

https://t.co/SOhdTsJVPw

[Pixel Forge Plays @PixelForgePlays]

[ TOP PICK - TENNIS ]
Alexandra Eala H2H
Game: Jun 16 | 2:00 AM MT
Odds: +103 | Book: DraftKings
Edge: 11.4%
Model: 60.5% (vs market 49%)
Edge driver: Model probability gap (11.4% edge vs market)
https://t.co/LcLVd08mEY #PixelForgePlays #TENNIS