Paul 🏳️‍🌈

30, he/him, 49ers fan, politics and elections nerd, bisexual, Socialist, Antifaschist. Protect 🇺🇦 🇵🇸🏳️‍⚧️

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@Nebraskademsoc Nothing will ever compare to Doug Jones winning in 2017, it was completely crazy. It was the perfect storm of a very close election that was also a massive swing and an upset.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@ALleftist It can make a massive impact on low profile races (house/state leg) when a big part of winning is just getting voters to know you. But in high profile elections ads have really diminishing returns.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@DomeAgorra @KlnRkj @historigins European colonists were not used to the tropical climate, regular floods and hurricanes combined with tropical diseases like malaria and yellow feaver. Miserable place to live before modern sanitation and damming of the Mississippi.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@PollTracker2024 A Dixiecrat in 2026, now I've seen everything.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@StatisticUrban

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@realcamrob1 @TroyXanh @PollTracker2024 Yeah, NC and GA are very expensive for early primary states. I just fear that SC Republicans will eliminate Clyburns seat in 2027. I can't imagine the DNC will keep the SC primary in an early spot if that happens especially with swing states like GA and NC in the mix.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@realcamrob1 @TroyXanh @PollTracker2024 The 2028 primary calendar is not set yet and it's not guaranteed that SC gets an early primary again. Especially if Dems sweep in Georgia this year.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@elitetakes_ LMAO

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@rowanfornow Thank god for Charles Booker! https://t.co/G3t17dDt3a

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@electionsjoe Nah these are not good numbers for McGrath, Booker will be stronger in and around Louisville. Which is good because Booker will divert less resist-lib money from actually competitive senate races.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@ElectionMapsUK Fascinating vote transfers, unionist labour voters really don't want to choose between the SNP and Reform.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@PollTracker2024 For gods sake, why would you post a fake AI generated poll like it ia any other normal poll? Have some standards.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@electionsjoe There was already like 97% of the vote in and no high profile race were close enough that the few remaining ballots would matter, so everyone moved on. Even the close R governor race was already over.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@AustinHoney30 Yeah that's the election when I realized that top two is actually bullshit. Even FPTP primaries without runoffs (which are really bad) are somehow better. If you want non-partiasan primaries, just go with top 4 and RCV.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@JL7612 @bluehawkantifa @MassJumbo They have until 5 pm on July 27

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@JL7612 @bluehawkantifa @MassJumbo Troy Jackson has already filed for it, he's definitely interested. Haven't heard anything about Bellows. https://t.co/Sf5iWvMcmD

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@nikicaga The main parties are all not standing, they called Farages bluff. He'll be alone with Count Binface on the stage.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@bluehawkantifa @MassJumbo Oh, I agree that the replacement candidate should be Troy Jackson, he's the closest on policy and style and he has the best chance to capture the anti-establishment energy. I just also think Bellows would be fine candidate and the 2014 result is not really relevant anymore.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@bluehawkantifa @MassJumbo I wouldn't put too much stock into that performance, Bellows was a political newcomer with no statewide profile. Also very important to remember that 2014 was ages ago politically, long before Dobbs or Trump. But I would understand if she isn't interested.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@ElxMapping I think her support pretty much splits fifty-fifty. Also her name remains on the ballot so she'll get a few points anyway.

[Paul 🏳️‍🌈 @pizzawarrior_]

@AnthonyMEmerson I hate "prediction" markets but there is simply no money in public elections reporting so I get why they took the money. As long as they keep their legacy version of the model without Kalshi, I'll tolerate it.