A 67-year-old grandfather in Vermont built a trading bot during retirement - it earned him $290,000 in a single year without losing a single trade.
168 trades. 100% win rate. Zero drawdown across 365 days.
The strategy is so safe it's basically a bond ladder - but with AI doing the probability math instead of credit
Here's how it actually works:
He only takes bets the model is >85% sure of. Everything else? Killed.
188 events scanned per day. ~12 pass the filter. ~1 actually deploy.
AI algo waits. Most days he doesn't trade at all.
The probability model is stolen from weather forecasting: 31 models vote on every outcome. 28 out of 31 saying "yes" = 90% conviction. Below 26 = automatic reject.
That's the entire edge.
Polymarket is full of 87-92¢ markets that almost always settle at $1. Most traders ignore them - upside per dollar looks tiny.
The math:
edge = model_p − market_p
kelly = edge / (1 − token_price)
size = bankroll x kelly x 0.15
The stack runs free: Polymarket Gamma API for discovery, ClickHouse + Redpanda for the pipeline, paper mode validation before live capital.
Brier score 0.041 across all 168 predictions. Anything under 0.10 is institutional-grade. He's printing the academic numbers.
Most boring account on Polymarket. Also the most profitable - so save this post.
And if you’ve been looking for the most safest strategy to copy - you’ve definitely found it.
You only need Claude + laptop + 1 hour/day.
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Going through the trauma that comes with a spouse that went cold turkey after taking Klonopins. 10 days in it got scary and traumatic, especially for our 3 children. She left, divorce lawyers profiting. 3 months in and it’s not over. Chaos seems to have subsided. She is in denial and her family(mother)enables. 24 years together and it looks to be over
@XRPamoremio@newstart_2024 I’m living though the hell right now as a spouse of someone suffering and in denial. 10 days after going cold turkey and now 3 months into our separation with divorce eminent. Terribly sad. I wish I had been better educated before it came to this
DOJ, again, explained why Judge Currie should have been more cautious. Any interpretation of the statute that would grant the District Court exclusive authority to appoint a US Attorney runs headlong into the separation of powers. The prosecutorial function belongs to the executive branch.
This opinion will be reversed. The Supreme Court has indicated in a slew of cases over the past year that the unitary executive isn't a "theory" - it's the Constitution, and interpretations of statutes that purport to confiscate executive authority and give it to actors uncontrolled by the President don't pass constitutional muster.
FIN