peter rumpf

[Trent 🇺🇸 @tnertz]

Squall line storm about to hit Chicago
#ILwx

[Don Winslow @donwinslow]

I remember. Do you?

[Morgan J. Freeman @mjfree]

Graham on Trump:

“He’s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot. He doesn’t represent my party. He doesn’t represent the values that the men and women who wear the uniform are fighting for”

[Joyce Alene @JoyceWhiteVance]

Tonight I wrote about two cases that demonstrate DOJ is no longer committed to doing justice. https://t.co/KUmL5uPLQ5

[Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson]

America's Secret Police in action. Time to ID that guy who let his mask slip.

[Acyn @Acyn]

Reporter: Some members of the Jewish community, including Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer, were alarmed by the language you used at the rally last week, calling AIPAC monsters who move dark money.

Mamdani: I want to be very clear. We’re talking about a status quo where children are being killed on a daily basis. More than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military since the so-called ceasefire.

Even an Al Jazeera journalist, Ahmed Wishah, was killed this past Saturday by an Israeli strike. And when I am speaking about AIPAC, I’m speaking about an organization that has been supportive of the status quo, that has fought any attempt to actually deliver safety to people not just in Palestine but, frankly, throughout much of the region.

And it is a status quo of immorality. It is one that I will not accept. And when it comes to the way in which they defend the status quo, oftentimes they defend it through direct contributions, as we are seeing right now in New York 13.

Oftentimes they also support the status quo through dark money, by funneling money that would have previously come directly from AIPAC through other organizations whose contributors’ identities are only made clear after an election.

And I think it is important that when we ask ourselves how such death and destruction is happening overseas, we also name those who allow it to take place.

[Barb McQuade @BarbMcQuade]

One suggestion in The Fix is a strong Congress to check an abusive president. Ranked-choice voting, independent redistricting commissions, and proportional representation would help. Until then, support candidates who reflect the will of the people, not just the billionaires.
https://t.co/dxqKHmYgnF

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

Do not use StubHub. I purchased $1,500 of Journey tickets from them. They promised delivery before 4:30pm for a 7:30pm show. I spent 3 hours in the afternoon trying to get the tickets. Nothing. The venue was an hour from my home. At 6:30 no resolution, no contact. I did not go. I received upgraded tickets from them via email at 7:37pm via email. The show had started. I asked for a complete refund. They refused. They said I could have seen most of the show. These people are criminals. Period. @StubHub

[Stay Tuned with Preet @cafedotcom]

Allegations about Kash Patel raise questions about judgment, leadership, and national security.

@AshaRangappa_ breaks it down today on Substack: https://t.co/rYnChayIVm

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

Famous author Wajahat Ali completely destroys Pastor Doug Wilson on live TV. He exposes the Pentagon's religious extremism, calling out Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as a cosplay crusader getting innocent civilians killed in an illegal and unwinnable war in Iran.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Joe Kernen comes close to having a coronary on air as Pete Buttigieg dogwalks him all over the Squawk Box studio about Trump's economic mismanagement and inflation

[George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 @gtconway3d]

"The danger with a sick deranged malignant narcissist like Donald Trump is they end up destroying not just themselves but everyone around them. And so, the real question is whether Republicans will finally realize, 'We have to get rid of him too' and 'We have to help the Democrats get rid of him before he destroys us all."

[Chay Bowes @BowesChay]

Pete Hegseth publicly shared this video hailing it as proof that the U.S. is now “bombing narco-terrorists on land” in addition to its strikes on suspected drug dealers at sea.

It turned out to be a dairy farm.

[Sheldon Whitehouse @SenWhitehouse]

Joe Biden won the election in 2020. If a future judge can’t admit that, what’s left?

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I placed $1.5 billion in futures at 6:50 AM.

Fourteen minutes before President Trump's Truth Social post. That's generous. Usually, I get five.

The S&P was barely breathing. Premarket Monday. The kind of quiet where a single order echoes through the entire book. I bought $1.5 billion in futures. The index moved 0.3% on my entry alone.

That's how thin the market was.

That's how empty the room was.

At the same time, I shorted $192 million in crude oil.

Then I sat there. Three screens. One coffee. The futures blinking green on the left, the oil contract bleeding red on the right, and in the center, a Truth Social feed set to refresh every four seconds. Fourteen minutes is a long time when you know what's coming.

Not because I was nervous.

Because I was early.

At 7:04 AM, the president posted. Productive discussions. Five-day halt on strikes. Peace talks with Iran.

S&P jumped 2.5%. Oil cratered 6%. My position gained $60 million before most Americans' alarm clocks went off.

Good morning.

Iran later denied that the talks ever happened. Called it fake news. The speaker of their parliament accused the president of manipulating financial markets.

The talks might not be real.

The sixty million dollars is.

The analytics accounts flagged it within the hour. "Unusual activity." "Orders 4-6x larger than anything else trading at the time."

That's their word for it. Unusual.

My word for it is Tuesday.

They always flag it. That's their function. Flagging is not investigating. Flagging is the system's way of noting that it saw something, documenting that it will do nothing, and calling that process oversight.

The actual investigation is conducted by the CFTC. The CFTC has one commissioner. Out of five seats. One.

The other four chairs are empty. Not vacant. Emptied. There is a difference. Vacant means nobody applied. Emptied means somebody decided the body responsible for policing futures markets should not have enough members to hold a vote.

That's not negligence. That's architecture.

You know what we call this pattern on the desk? TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Escalate on Friday, capitulate on Monday, and extract in the window between the decision and the post.

It's so reliable, we named it. We have a private Slack channel. #taco-tuesday. It updates automatically when Truth Social pushes a new geopolitical keyword.

We don't teach it as insider trading. We teach it as a market structure. New analysts learn it in their first week. By the second week, they stop flinching.

The phone rang at 6:47 AM. Three minutes before I entered the position. The call lasted ninety seconds.

Ninety seconds of context. $60 million of outcome.

You call that insider trading. I understand why. Insider trading is the word you learned. It's the crime from the movies. The whispered merger at a cocktail party. Four hundred shares of a mid-cap pharmaceutical. That gets prosecuted.

That's the version of this crime the system was built to catch.

What I do is different.

I place $1.5 billion against a war decision made in a room I have the phone number to. On a platform overseen by a commission with one member. In a market where the president's social media account is the most powerful price-setting mechanism on earth.

That's not insider trading.

That's infrastructure.

You would go to federal prison for trading on a tip from your brother-in-law. I made $60 million trading on a war. The difference is not the crime. The difference is the decimal point.

Americans paid for this war with four-dollar gas and sixteen billion in taxes. I paid for a phone call. We are not in the same economy.

Last month, $529 million was wagered on Polymarket's Iran strikes market. Six accounts pocketed $1.2 million. Deposited funds the same day. Hours before the bombs fell. One account cleared $553,000 at 17% odds, seventy-one minutes before public confirmation. He has not placed another bet since.

The president's son sits on Polymarket's advisory board. Two federal investigations into the platform were quietly dropped this year. Twelve government officials sold stocks in the weeks before the tariff crash. All of them reported the sales after the deadline.

Nobody calls any of that insider trading. They call it prediction markets. Delayed disclosures. Portfolio rebalancing. I call it the junior varsity version of what I do with futures.

An Oxford law professor called it the most far-reaching securities fraud in history. We call it the window.

Tomorrow, this will be gone. Buried under a new tariff. A new ultimatum. A new TACO. Next Monday at 6:50 AM, I will be here again. Coffee. Three screens. The phone. The ninety-second call. The fourteen-minute window.

The game isn't rigged.

Rigged implies something broke. Nothing broke. Every component is functioning exactly as specified. The one-member commission. The anonymous platforms. The four-second refresh on the Truth Social feed. The phone that rings at 6:47.

I didn't exploit a flaw in the system.

I am the system.

[Scott Stedman @ScottMStedman]

I'm sure it's a coincidence that Trump's aides connected to Russia are already threatening to sue me the week I drop an Epstein/Russia story.

Read: https://t.co/s2qgR9H8Fp

[Zeteo @zeteo_news]

The Trump administration can’t keep their story straight on the US and Israel’s war in Iran. Zeteo traces all their waffling since the bombs started falling.

[Joyce Alene @JoyceWhiteVance]

The question is really very simple: Do you believe all eligible Americans have the right to vote or are you terrified of what those voters will do to you if they are able to exercise that right?

[Justin Amash @justinamash]

“Every just view that can be taken of this subject, admonishes the public, of the necessity of a rigid adherence to the simple, the received and the fundamental doctrine of the constitution, that the power to declare war including the power of judging of the causes of war is fully and exclusively vested in the legislature: that the executive has no right, in any case to decide the question, whether there is or is not cause for declaring war: that the right of convening and informing Congress, whenever such a question seems to call for a decision, is all the right which the constitution has deemed requisite or proper: and that for such more than for any other contingency, this right was specially given to the executive.

“In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace to the legislature, and not to the executive department. Beside the objection to such a mixture of heterogeneous powers: the trust and the temptation would be too great for any one man: not such as nature may offer as the prodigy of many centuries, but such as may be expected in the ordinary successions of magistracy. War is in fact the true nurse of executive aggrandizement. In war a physical force is to be created, and it is the executive will which is to direct it. In war the public treasures are to be unlocked, and it is the executive hand which is to dispense them. In war the honors and emoluments of office are to be multiplied; and it is the executive patronage under which they are to be enjoyed. It is in war, finally, that laurels are to be gathered, and it is the executive brow they are to encircle. The strongest passions, and most dangerous weaknesses of the human breast; ambition, avarice, vanity, the honorable or venial love of fame, are all in conspiracy against the desire and duty of peace.

“Hence it has grown into an axiom that the executive is the department of power most distinguished by its propensity to war: hence it is the practice of all states, in proportion as they are free, to disarm this propensity of its influence.”

—James Madison

[Criterion Collection @Criterion]

✨Jim Jarmusch’s Closet Picks! ✨