Paul Kiernan

Writing about the California economy for the Wall Street Journal. Previously in Mexico City, São Paulo, Rio and Washington. RTs ≠ endorsements.

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Gonna try this other thing for a while. Follow me at: https://t.co/AntOXvzbnd

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Bit of personal and professional news: I recently moved from DC to Los Angeles, where I'll be covering the California (and West Coast, and still U.S.) economy for
@WSJ.

My first story:

https://t.co/NhQ7ZTPmGX

[Leo Schwartz @leomschwartz]

Scoop: Blockchain researchers have found evidence of rampant wash trading on the leading electoral betting site Polymarket, with Chaos Labs concluding that one-third of volume on its presidential market is likely artificial

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Background on this concept of a “crypto voter,” courtesy of @cduhigg

https://t.co/JFMO2kYPjf

[Katie Biber @katiebiber]

Our latest poll shows that 5% of all voters (all voters!) consider themselves single-issue crypto voters, putting to rest ongoing questions about whether the crypto industry has astroturfed its power this election cycle. 1/7

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.” ⁦@aosipovich⁩ shows how four accounts on a betting website poured $30 million of crypto into wagers that Trump will win the election, making his odds look better than they might really be. https://t.co/dFIL2WIjuk

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

A Second Trump Presidency Stands to Radically Remake World Trade https://t.co/0xH3EpHYzG

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Canceling Subscriptions Is Torture. The Government Wants to Make It Easier for You. https://t.co/0uozB4yFqo

[NYTimes Communications @NYTimesPR]

A statement from the editor of New York Times Opinion in response to criticism of a recent guest essay. https://t.co/fs3X3ivadq

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

US Forest Service sent urgent message to federal agencies in western N.C. on Saturday saying that National Guard troops ‘had come across x2 trucks of armed militia saying they were out hunting FEMA.’

https://t.co/PkgrlMgnOO

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

Two thirds of economists surveyed by the ⁦@WSJ⁩ say inflation would be worse under Trump than under Harris while just 12% say it would be worse under Harris than Trump. ⁦@pkwsj⁩ ⁦@anthonydb⁩ https://t.co/4liUrRzKmN

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Interesting bc before it was an election year with tens of millions of crypto-dollars sloshing around Washington, Tim Scott was fairly skeptical of The Digital Asset Ecosystem.

[Zach Warmbrodt @Zachary]

Scoop from @Eleanor_Mueller: Mark Warner is dropping plans to include new crypto sanctions in a bill that would reauthorize intel programs. He faced opposition from the crypto industry and a key GOP senator. https://t.co/F3drR5s2pH

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

If you are a weatherperson, you’re a target. The same goes for journalists, election workers, scientists, doctors, and first responders. These jobs are different, but the thing they share is that they all must attend to and describe the world as it is. https://t.co/yEkCouSFfB

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Sharply lower energy prices have brought overall inflation to its lowest level since February 2021. But energy is volatile. If we want sustained lower inflation, services inflation (shelter, transportation, healthcare) has to come down.

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

September inflation data comes in a bit warmer than expected:
-CPI +2.4% yoy, vs consensus estimate of +2.3%
-CPI excluding food and energy +3.3%, vs consensus +3.2%

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

The red line (core inflation) is going the wrong direction.

[Alexander Osipovich @aosipovich]

After ~7 hours of trading:

- Harris 53% to Trump 47% on IBKR's ForecastEx
- Harris 51% to Trump 49% on Kalshi

https://t.co/Oa3R8J90fI

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Strong September jobs report just in:

+254k nonfarm payrolls (economists had expected +150k)

Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%

Average hourly earnings +$0.13 to $35.36

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

Kamala Harris’ brother-in-law Tony West has earned $40.6 million in compensation from Uber, where he is a senior executive, since 2020. West is on leave from Uber to advise the Harris campaign but has told colleagues he plans to return afterward. https://t.co/9TXCLau65w

[Paul Kiernan @pkwsj]

U.S. Port Workers Agree to End Their Strike https://t.co/hJenS6YSsb

[Bloomberg @business]

Hurricane Helene caused havoc in North Carolina.

It also shut two mines that together produce about four-fifths of the world’s highest-quality quartz — a crucial ingredient in the production of semiconductors https://t.co/ZSFlpvZHFV