Plaban Gupta

Formerly at Firstpost. Times Now, ET Now, NDTV & Indian Express. Avid reader, keen interest in politics, strategic affairs. Views are personal

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

@_prashantnair This has happened post World War II (1940s) where US capped its bond yields to pay off the massive debt letting the inflation run.

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

25% of all US govt debt is short-term, Treasury bills maturing in under a year. Will US issue new debt to pay off these debt? Or will the US force the lenders to accept low returns as it did post World War II capping yields, letting inflation run? #USDebt #USBondYield

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

More than the 25 bps hike by the FED it's the hawkish projection that is going to hurt investor sentiment. FIIs will put out. Expect a crash unless DIIs buy aggressively. Iran US war needs to stop.#FedRateHike #Nifty #Sensex #RisingOilPrice #ImportedInflation

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

The war has done long-term structural damage to global economy. The days of cheap money are over. No bull runs in the next few months till crude oil prices cool downs. Inflation will eat into household saving affecting discretionary spending. #IranWar‌ #USIranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

US, Israel will ramp up missile production. It remains to be seen whether Iran still has the capacity to bulk produce Khorramshahr, Sejjil, Fattah, Kheibar Shekan. Interceptor missiles will eventually plenish. US needs boots on ground if it can't decapacitate Iran. #USIran

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

If Iran & Israel continue launching missiles at each other GCC countries will suffer the most. The more the war drags on the more difficult will it be for Trump to call it off. The only way out could be if they run out of missiles. But the possibility is less. #USIran #IranWar‌

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

War enters 4rth week. US-Israel has been unable to decapacitate Iran's ability to launch missiles, drones. Iran continues with its eye-for-an-eye policy with GCC countries, targets Israel at will. Trump is clueless. Too much headwinds ahead for crude, global economy. #IranWar‌

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

US-Israel escalate & bombs power plants, water supply, banks. A desperate Iran attacks de-salination plants across GCC countries. This is where real panic spreads and people are now in a soup as drinking water supply is affected. Millions try to flee Gulf. 4/5 #USIranWar #IranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Panic sets in as oil prices rise & economies affected. Investors panic & start pulling out of GCCs & flee Gulf. They put pressure on US to end the war but without an off ramp Trump cannot pull out. Meanwhile Israel puts pressure on US to prolong the war. 3/5 ##USIranWar #IranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Unable to match US-Israel’s conventional superiority, Iran attacks data centers, banks, airports in GCC s to wreak havoc & pummels Israel with missiles carrying heavier warheads. Iran lays mines in Strait of Hormuz & Houthis attack ships in Red Sea. 2/5 #USIranWar #IranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

It's a doomsday scenario. US-Israel scale up the escalation ladder trying to destroy Iran’s ability to launch missiles, drones. Iran continues attacking Israel, US bases in the Gulf as US has lost radars decreasing ability to intercept. So, what happens? 1/5 #IranWar #USIranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

US exits the Gulf region leaving Israel and Iran to settle their scores. Will the Arab countries even trust US again? Meanwhile rising inflation much above the Fed threshold hits US. What happens to Trump’s own ratings & the mid-term poll slated later this year? #USIranWar 4/4

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Trump calls for condition talks saying that Iranians must stop enrichment and accept defeat which can give him an honorable exit. But Iranians refuse any talks with US and keeps on attacking Israel. Has Trump dug himself into a hole? #IranUSWar 3/4

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Trump unilaterally calls an end to Epic Fury & says evil regime has been decimated. asks Iranians to hit the streets, But what if within hours IRGC fires another salvo of missiles at Israel and US bases in the Gulf? There are no protests by Iranians. What then? #IranUSWar 2/4

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

US had 3 stated goals: regime change, denuclearization, removing ballistic missiles & 1 unstated one – control over Iran’s oil. So, what has USA achieved?
Trump is not sure & confused but knows that US needs to exit & he needs a face-saver. What are the options? 1/4 #IranUSWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

In May 2025 India's oil import from US was 6.8% of its total imports and it rose to 9% in January 2026. The real beneficiary of India cutting down on Russian oil has been Saudi Arabia - it increased to 17.5% in January 2026 from 9% in May 2025. #IranWar #RussianOil

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

According to data by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's oil import from Russia declined from 33% in May 2025 to 19.3% in January 2026. But this time there won't be any discounts from Russia as production has been affected. #IranWar #OilPrices #RussianOil

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Regarding US providing 'waiver' to India to buy oil from Russia , let's wait for the data for February oil purchase instead of depending on 'sources'. We shall exactly know whether India has cut down on its purchases of Russian oil 'dictated' by the US. #IranWar #USIranConflict

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

India and US are allies and partners sharing some common goals. But the partnership should be based on respect & not undermining the other. Incidents like torpedoing of Iran's IRIS Dena does not bode well for India. US should be sensitive to India's position &concerns. #IranWar

[Plaban Gupta @plabang]

Those who called India meek & criticised Modi govt must know that you do not have to be loud like Trump to take a stand. Without criticising US a subtle message was conveyed to Trump administration which came after offering condolences over Khamenei's death. #IranWar #Iran