Fran

Notes to self. Managing Partner @plaintext_cap. Opinions are my own. Not investment advice

[Fran @plainfran]

Basically everywhere. Having bad assets go down while good assets go up is fundamental to a healthy market. This will be painful for all the BTC strategies that have proliferated in the last few years...

[Fran @plainfran]

It's actually mind blowing to see this dispersion in crypto token performance. While we all lauded the BTC ETF as our savior, it has decimated the active management space since BTC has been the best performing assset by far in the last few years, and it's accessible at a low cost

[Fran @plainfran]

@dgt10011 @AdrianUberto @kevinyb @anjan_vinod Congrats Jeff!

[Fran @plainfran]

@FDavidsonT Y

[Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_]

One thing to put in perspective when you see everyone worried about the amount of oncoming IPO supply (which is a lot) is that there has been a lot more wealth created, so when you hear the doom porn of $600 bln in IPO supply, it’s important to put that into relative context.

The bigger thing to worry about is global FX, oil, rates and realized volatility rising into mid-terms.

Solid charts from Tony P at GS today.

[Cobie @cobie]

Can't wait for Zcash to be 4 figures

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

The number of DeFi hacks reached ATHs in April, but their impact is still relatively low and stable.

While it’s possible the rise in count is due to AI, what’s more likely is that it’s a function of more contracts being deployed over time.

Although 2% - 4% of total value locked hacked per year is still way too high for mainstream adoption, there’s no reason to be an alarmist about it yet.

Will note too that it’s typically weaker, often times abandon/ill-maintained protocols that get hacked, so this 2% - 4% per year is in a way a weeding of the crowd.

[Yano 🟪 @JasonYanowitz]

Bad investor relations will kill your token

[Fran @plainfran]

Chills

[Fran @plainfran]

@david_enim @StaniKulechov Yep

[Nous Research @NousResearch]

Hermes Agent is officially our fastest-growing project ever!

A huge thank you to everyone who has been experimenting with it, shared the announcement, or took the time to make a contribution to the project.

[Sophia Labs @sophialabs_]

Introducing Sophia.

Distributed training changes the AI landspace by making compute fungible.

The entire global supply of compute becomes available to anyone building models—not just the few who can afford to concentrate it in one place.

[PJ @Prithvir12]

To everyone who said prediction markets are just sports, here’s the CEO of a $110b company:

1. Weather and temperature contracts are the most frequently traded
2. Utilities will soon hedge electricity and natural gas contracts using these markets

Prediction markets are already institutional

You’re just not paying close enough attention

[Fran @plainfran]

Can definitely see this happening for the foreseeable future. No incentive to lock Pendle while others are earning outsized returns.

[Kunal Doshi @Kunallegendd]

The new sPENDLE upgrade by @pendle_fi might not be the token sink many are expecting. Existing ve holders get a big multiplier boost, so they earn a much higher APY than anyone staking fresh. With the average lock around 1.54 years, vePENDLE converts into sPENDLE with a 3.31x boost that slowly decays as unlocks progress.

That creates a lopsided incentive structure. New stakers are earning between 5%-7%, while boosted veholders earn between 16%-24%. Imo the yield for new stakers is too low to pull meaningful new supply into staking.

If sPENDLE is going to work as a real sink, revenue has to ramp quickly through Boros and V2 so yields can rise for everyone. Otherwise staking demand probably shows up much later, once the average multiplier on legacy vePENDLE drifts closer to 1.

[Fran @plainfran]

@KobeissiLetter Europe is not a country you idiots - false equivalence

[thiccy @thiccyth0t]

https://t.co/hwthzxFgcS

[McKenna @Crypto_McKenna]

Equity perpetuals are going to see huge adoption in this industry.

Why? Because most tokens are absolute trash possibly worse than trash. You now can get leverage on the MAG7 that literally only go up.

It’s hard to lose buying these assets. After everyone has been rinsed by CEX listing crime it’s the only viable way to run it back.

Market severely underwriting the TAM for this sector.

[Fran @plainfran]

The battle for the soul of crypto begins. Why are we here?

[Swingtrader @Swingtrader]

Brilliant article by @profplum99 - I don’t think this could have been articulated anyway possibly better.

https://t.co/UpG6MwvmiM

[Fran @plainfran]

@GavinSBaker Hi @GavinSBaker can you share sources, it would be great to have a little evidence to back up the assertions you're making. For example, wrt to ROIC being higher now than before etc...