PL

the ART of TRADING

[PL @plevchen]

breadth measure of 4%+ movers today ranked at 0 (most bearish possible) based on 5 year history today.. with little reprieve still.. yest ended up being a textbook D1 in many ways.. similar to the Gold para short day and Korea prev para short: aggro opening drive, then reclaim and steady bid all day close at highs or near... re-roll in after hours + gap down next day (that'd be today, D2) and just steady all day trend day roll...

at the moment, this is looking like a textbook interim top.. would personally love the multi day liquidation to the 50day MA in $QQQ. that would be "too good"... chop ard 20day MA in $QQQ prob more "mkt efficient".. holding v little besides $NBIS.
"It's a bull market you know" - Old Turkey.
looking for RS right now seems like the place to be. worth watching groups for RS.. something like 1-2wk RS will become relevant..

Optics / Memory / Space was #1 on this move .. Space unwound..
QC nukes drones solar - late stage yet again..
AI/HPC neocloud close 2nds in RS, lets see how leading stocks within the best groups digest this pullback..

[PL @plevchen]

Still on a lower high. But for correction to work, we need to get some bearish thrust today or Monday. Yest wasn’t it and action on bounce in semis was incredibly strong from overbought conditions. My focus is in small/mid caps not indices, abit of sideways would be great as always. Most charts besides SOME leaders semis and optics need more sideways ($QCOM $INTC $MXL somewhat rested). So there’s that too.

[PL @plevchen]

notable bullish breadth divergence since open.. no of stocks down scoring in 80th most bullish percentile.. stocks up onyl scoring around average (53th percentile)..
lower $QQQ bullish breadth so far on the day.

[PL @plevchen]

If you can escalate this to sensei Karpathy our wishes may be heard :) I noticed Codex practical usage limits and IQ have dwindled somewhat last few days. Could be nothing but even the 2x -> 1.5x reduction doesn’t seem to explain the drain… even running all on normal just as before drains MUCH faster z

[PL @plevchen]

$LASE 2026/06/02
EXTERNAL RECOGNITION
defense tech recognition / LSAD top Counter C5ISR T
submission / MEIA technical exchange / no contract or
funding disclosed
Takeaway: Department of War selection validates LSAD as a
top counter-drone submission and advances it to a gated
technical exchange, though no contract or funding was
disclosed.

Mcap 21M Float 24.6M SI 7.2% OS 22.2M

-----------------------------
06/26 1.5 call 0.16$ (thin) - some of the best topside convexity ive seen lately.. EP/SIP part of the drone "group move" / theme, when we have the benefit of hindsight on $ASTC $RKTO (ex $HOTH lol), $MNTS and last but not least the overall market environment at your sails... higher low optimal entry with add over vwap range or nHOD yest after 10:00am.. in hindsight good ones always look like you didn't go big enough :)

[PL @plevchen]

Discipline is the art of eliminating self betrayal / self sabotage.

[PL @plevchen]

the most obvious pattern standing out from this is an extreme in breadth across all MA measures (from 10day to 200day) AND a sharp accelerating move to the downside in $QQQ, when followed by a reversal has been a reliable indicator of bottoms. extreme breadth readings at the END or during a protracted bull often signal a short-term pause at the very least.. by "Extreme" i mean ranks within 93-100%.

[PL @plevchen]

you look can look at % of stocks above thie 20 EMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA as a rank (100 most extreme, 0 least extreme based on last 5 years of history) as a 3D surface vs $QQQ.

and look at today's live scores as a cross section.. you can see they are nowhere near extremes .. for instance in 2024 on 2024/07/16 at the market top tehse readings reached a rank of 96-100 across all MA breadth measures with regards to % of stocks above their 10day-200day MA.

prior to the early 2025 nose dive, breadth measures had already deflated way ahead of the move lower in $QQQ.

[PL @plevchen]

looking at market breadth measures today. we rank every reading against its 5 year history and show ranks instead, to give an idea of how extreme reading is relative to history. so every value has 0-100 range, 100 being most extreme..

eg live row for today shows say first cell 92 means:

% of liquid stocks up 4% on the day is in the 92nd percentile of most extreme. i snapped so we can compare range vs market EP time 2026-04-06-10 ...

on breadth measures such % of stocks above their MAs, we are not in teh extreme percentiles territory.. for comparison 2026-04-20 was some of the most extreme overall readings in 5 year history!. as bull market gets more extended, extreme readings such as this especially if confirmed with MA breadth readings showing "peak breadth" could serve as a useful timing indicator for lightening up across portfolio..

[PL @plevchen]

looking at market breadth measures today. we rank every reading against its 5 year history and show ranks instead, to give an idea of how extreme reading is relative to history. so every value has 0-100 range, 100 being most extreme..

eg live row for today shows say first cell 92 means:

% of liquid stocks up 4% on the day is in the 92nd percentile of most extreme. i snapped so we can compare range vs market EP time 2026-04-06-10 ...

on breadth measures such % of stocks above their MAs, we are not in teh extreme percentiles territory.. for comparison 2026-04-20 was some of the most extreme overall readings in 5 year history!. as bull market gets more extended, extreme readings such as this especially if confirmed with MA breadth readings showing "peak breadth" could serve as a useful timing indicator for lightening up across portfolio..

[PL @plevchen]

super wary of anything bought more recently being a laggard on first sign of market weakness.. order of operations on positions: Last In First Out (LIFO).

[PL @plevchen]

insane amount of opportunity lately obv.. some opps i missed:

$ASTC slam dunk SIP i missed. big fumble..
other than that, not much regret - dont have to be perfect.. new entries should be mooning in this market right away.. no reason to hold on to things that are struggling or puttin gu under pressure..
some rotation into megacaps and "dotcom" boomer stocks like $IBM $HPQ etc lately.. $MSFT $META bos could have juiced via opts..

this is just off the top of my head.. Quantum computing govt policy group move..
and plenty other opps..

took early stop on $ONDS D2 overriding LOD and paid the price :)

[PL @plevchen]

$NVDA $CRWV new swings today on PRs.. $NVDA o/w across accounts , entering PC market with AI chips and multiple PC hardware collaborators ($HPQ $HPE $IBM $DELL / group move), $CRWV laggard but had NVDA-related PR also in the hottest group (AI-HPC) so that + hot runaway bull mkt --> ORB entries had betting odds. not sized in this one.

$ANY SIP data center shtco PR - entry today VWAP reclaim 10:30am+ textbook

$FLNC BO on catalyst today: STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
Fluence gained AI data-center validation by
being built into NVIDIA and Siemens' Vera Rubin NVL72 reference architecture for 136 MW facilities with 100 MW of IT load.
Mcap 3.5B Float 100.2M Short Interest 25.1% (!!!)

entry on a higher low after Opening range undercut & reclaim 10:19-20 agst LOD (1min ORB was too wide risk wise to attempt.. would have been stopped as has been the case lately for alot of gappers).

$DOCN add today (original swing remainder from 05/05) - flag AI-adjacent cloud group move..

$IMSR friday entry (small) credits @Valckrie for bringing to my attention.. traded the stock before.. longer-term hold.. @OddDiligence has done some good DD on this co.

$RKLB 20day touch and U&R just now.. re-entering swing piece of what i sold agst 150$ (lower highs and horizontal resistance level formed after 3bn ATM announcement). not keeping my hopes up, Space spec deflating in places ahead of $SPCX IPO.. this is market leader though. U&R tomorrow also would be in play for adds. wider stop on this for now. $RKLB has been a big acct mover for me, textbook BO 2026/5/8.
insti grade market leader in Space, alongside $PL which hasnt been a great trading stock for some time since its explosive moves from EPs ...

$SNOW EP entry last week - textbook. software/AI/cloud theme overlap, had everything.
not 5* only due to stock character prob.. but 4-4.5*+ due to market theme and the actual report.

$BAND still trailing swing piece from EP 2026-04-30.
insane RS... reminds me of $FSLY earlier in year.. textbook 10day MA hold.. not sized in this one anymore but all adds up.
$AMBQ approaching backstop (EP entry on ER)
$EVC post-EP flag 2026-05-21

(AI-HPC/neocloud group):
$NBIS (AI-HPC/neocloud group) from 2026-05-04 with quite abit of trading around the position.. core hold across all acts
$HIVE EP 2026-05-20
$HUT 2026-05-21 2026-05-26 adds
$KEEL via calls from 2026-04-22

Every day things feel "too hot", but also you cant outsmart the MAs.
Sitting still has becoming ever so difficult :).

[PL @plevchen]

Once you are doing things in your life for truth’s sake, you find connection/union with a greater power than anything the mind is able to “intellectualise”, but which it is able to perceive/simply become aware of.