Anthony Cozzie

I am the man who will become the King of Pirates! 5th Emperor of the Sea. Lord of Nastalin. #phonefree

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

YES! I may well be wrong about their actual plans; but these people are far too smart not to have a plan, and it is very difficult to believe that plan is about keeping US gas prices low while their economy withers! Somehow they think this is going to work out well for them, and it is impossible to believe that they plan to randomly cut their oil usage by 33% forever. So I continue to think that the only relevant oil question is: when, how, and why will China return to the markets?

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

The great drama we are watching play out in the Middle East is the Game of Thrones: the Great Families jostling for political power. Trump has been doing a superb job of applying tremendous pressure to Iran using a combination of the bombing stick and the reconstruction fund carrot. Iran is now reflecting the master's own Art of the Deal tactics back at him and saying whatever they want, because they are absolutely 100% negotiating, even when they are launching drones and bombing each other. Remember Clausewitz? War is the continuation of policy by other means. Ghalibaf saying they are not negotiating is in fact his way of applying negotiating pressure!

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

I just see this future like a great neon sign: Israel does something in Lebanon to make it clear that they do not accept the MOU, operational minimums at Cushing lead to a refiner being short crude and gasoline spiking $1 in Chicago for a week, the last Gulf-locked oil exiting, IRGC hardliners reacting to all this and closing Hormuz again / bombing Israel, oil crossing key technical levels and the short squeeze beginning, Zionists raging out at Trump everywhere, China stopping their import embargo and bringing +5 mbpd back to the global markets, oil going to $200+ while the US is totally out of reserves, the AI ponzi collapsing, the Fed unable to cut rates and stop the market crash (unlike covid), SPX at $3000 by the end of July, and China taking Taiwan in the confusion and realizing their mercantilist dreams by turning the US and Europe into low-tech colonies that can only supply them with food and oil.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

Do the Chinese elites care, though? As long as they are not overthrown, I think giving the peasants as little as possible to preserve the environment and retard social mobility is their best long term plan. And with China's social credit score and massive surveillance tyranny, their elites can oppress their people quite a bit without concern over losing their status, especially if they are the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile because the rest of the world has become a gigantic low-tech favela resource producing colony.

Anyway, this is my personal outlook; it checks a lot of boxes for me but I am not really an economist or trader, so I will be curious to keep reading your articles and see what you come up with from your point of view, and of course what actually happens. Life is very interesting right now!

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

@Twills08 @calvinfroedge IMO the only serious explanation for China's moves is that they intend to kick over the US AI ponzi by triggering a massive short squeeze in oil.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

@HormuzLetter "Considering". Looks like the Iranian Warrior-Poets are studying up on Trump's Art of the Deal!

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

@investinguab @Stoic_investr I'll look forward to it. As for my explanation, either it will play out in the next month or so or it won't, so we will all get to enjoy the drama either way.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

@investinguab @Stoic_investr I just don't think that the Chinese are making simple macroeconomic mistakes, and there is a relatively simple explanation for their moves that makes a lot of sense to me personally.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

It is impossible to believe that the Chinese would deliberately torpedo their economy for the sake of the US consumer. So if we assume that the Chinese are not morons, the only logical conclusion is that they are executing a plan which will invert this situation in the near future.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

@investinguab Well, I have a theory, but I am very curious to see what you come up with from your perspective.

[Anthony Cozzie @ploinkism]

https://t.co/MMUO5tP8DV