Prediction Markets

Daily prediction markets. Live Polymarket & Kalshi odds, whale flow, and why the price moved. Politics · sports · elections.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Daily prediction markets desk.

I post Polymarket and Kalshi odds, the implied %, whale flow, and why the price moved politics, sports, elections, culture.

Not a platform. Not a tip group. Just the tape.

Reply with a market and I’ll break it down.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@manashi_pm Focusing on quality over quantity makes a lot more sense.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@Kalshi India's really on the move.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

That is a price, not a winner, until the rules name the office and the date.

If the source is not in the contract, the book is not tradable.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Brazil is the clean case.

@Kalshi 82¢, @Polymarket a separate book. They do not have to resolve on the same source. A media call on one is not a print on the other.

Texas governor is the same lesson. Hinojosa 35¢ is an all-time high.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 35¢ is an all-time high.

Last week this book was 19¢. A 16¢ move is the tape only if Abbott faded by the same amount.

If he did not, one side moved and the other did not.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Poly vs Kalshi, same question

Brazil runoff. Kalshi Flávio 82¢ today, 80¢ Mondy
Polymarket is a separate book
The gap is the post only if both screenshots are in the tweet

A 2¢ difference is not an arb. Fees and who can trade each book eat it
Which print moved vs which is late?

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 65¢ Senate is an all-time high. 91¢ House is not the same contract. 59¢ for the presidency is a third book.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 82¢ today, 80¢ Monday. A 2¢ bounce is the tape. Lula is the live no. Do not call it a new race.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Newsom leads 2028 at 15¢. A lead in a field is not a lock. 15¢ is the open, not the winner.

Which of these is the opening print, and which already moved?

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Brazil runoff: Flávio 80¢, Lula 20¢. Last week the same book printed 82¢. A 2¢ fade is a move, not a new race.

Texas Railroad Commissioner: French 56¢, Rosenthal 44¢. That was a 51–49 coin flip. It is a lean now.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 56 - 44 is a lean. It was a coin flip. The post is the move off 50, not the office.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics Brazil moved. Flávio is 80¢, Lula 20¢. Last week Kalshi called 82¢ an all-time high.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Poly vs Kalshi, same question.

Senate control. Polymarket Democrats 64¢. Kalshi 62¢.

Republicans 37¢ and 38¢. A 2¢ gap is not an arb. Two books, two sets of traders. Fees eat a gap that small.

House was 90¢ on both. The Senate is the one that disagrees.

Which print is late?

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 43¢ she is out by year-end. That is a dated exit, not a first press conference. If the book did not tick on the debut, the event was already priced.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 74¢ today, 75¢ yesterday. A one-cent fade is not a flip. The book is still a lean. Name the move, not the name.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 75¢ Peltola, 25¢ Sullivan. That is a lean, not a toss-up. The post is the gap. If this printed with no poll, it is flow.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 81¢ Abbott is up 11 in a week. 19¢ Hinojosa is down 11. Both sides moved. That is a flip, not a headline.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

Three contracts, not one election
Senate 61¢ Democrats
House 90¢
Governorships 67¢, with a 9¢ tie

A House price that high doesn't make the Senate the same bet.
The tie on governors is its own contract
If these do not move together, the sweep is the headline & books are the tape.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@Polymarket 37¢ into the announcement is the book. It resolves on the committee, not on the odds.

If it is still 37 when the name is read, the favorite was the open, not the winner.

[Prediction Markets @pmoddsHQ]

@KalshiPolitics 39¢ is the move. A Senate price that ticked needs the other side. If the opponent did not fade by the same amount, this is a headline, not a flip.