Scott Novacki

hydrobiologist, software tester, QA engineer

[Donald Tusk @donaldtusk]

Dear American friends, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem. And we have common enemies. At least that’s how it has been in the last 80 years. We need to stick to this, this is the only reasonable strategy of our common security. Unless something has changed.

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - November 22

MACRO

Bitcoin has broken key moving averages amid heavy ETF outflows, whale distribution, and leveraged liquidations, while hawkish Fed signals and weakening investor positioning continue to pressure price.

US equities have turned broadly risk-off, with tech leading the decline after Nvidia’s earnings triggered profit-taking, even as isolated retail names like Walmart and Gap showed relative strength.

The Nasdaq sell-off has been driven by sharp declines in semiconductors and AI-linked stocks, as investors reassess earnings sustainability and capital spending risks.

The dollar strengthened on stronger-than-expected labor data and a weaker yen, reinforcing risk-off dynamics in global markets.

Gold weakened as a stronger dollar, softer Asian physical demand, and hawkish Fed commentary capped any recovery attempts.

Bond yields dipped as markets reassessed Fed policy after mixed labor data and divided FOMC signals, while global flows were distorted by Japanese rate dynamics.

More "One Liners" -> MACRO / TREASURY COMPANIES / DIVERSIFIED CRYPTO / BITCOIN MINERS / CRYPTO CURRENCIES -> https://t.co/Q9GHvDylIS

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@szumand Dacie radę poprawić te tabele - polski vs angielski oraz błąd formuły?

[Andrzej z EU 🇪🇺🇵🇱🇺🇦🇮🇱 @szumand]

Wybory zostały sfałszowane‼

Przez ostatnie półtora tygodnia pracowaliśmy w kilku niezależnych zespołach nad analizą nieprawidłowości, do których doszło podczas wyborów.
Przeanalizowaliśmy bazy danych wszystkich 32 tysięcy komisji. Sprawdziliśmy, kto był przewodniczącym w każdej z nich i do jakiego komitetu należał. Porównaliśmy liczbę głosów oddanych na poszczególnych kandydatów w pierwszej i drugiej turze. Zbadaliśmy rozkłady procentowe, nietypowe wzrosty i spadki. Widzieliśmy, gdzie nagle nastąpił “cud”, a gdzie cudownie zniknęło poparcie.

Wykorzystaliśmy zaawansowane algorytmy. Szukaliśmy wzorców. Znaleźliśmy ich aż nadto.

Rozmawialiśmy też z członkami komisji. Mamy świadectwa.
Wiemy, jak wyglądało liczenie głosów. Wiemy, że przewodniczący ignorowali nieprawidłowości. Wiemy, że niektórzy członkowie komisji mieli kontakt online z kimś z zewnątrz.
Wiemy, że dopisywano drugi krzyżyk na kartach, gdzie zaznaczony był tylko Rafał Trzaskowski.
Wiemy, że zamieniano głosy pomiędzy kandydatami. Wiemy o „rosyjskim ogonie”
Wiemy dużo więcej.

Dlatego powstał Obywatelski Protest Wyborczy.
📄 Pobierz https://t.co/ukZNb2tdh0
🖊️ Podpisz.
📬 Wyślij poleconym najpóźniej w najbliższy poniedziałek.

Wszystko co umieściliśmy w proteście możecie sprawdzić tutaj https://t.co/Bd1keWDyLF

Jeśli protest wyśle garstka ludzi – nic się nie wydarzy.
Ale jeśli będzie nas dziesiątki, setki tysięcy – nikt tego nie zignoruje. Nawet PiSowski Sąd Najwyższy.

Dlatego bardzo Was proszę o ten wysiłek.
Nie pozwólmy się okraść z konstytucyjnych praw.
Nie dajmy sobie ukraść prawa do wyboru.

[no.mind @the_no_mind]

This is Thomas Seyfried.

He’s a professor of biology, who’s studied cancer for 30+ years.

His message? Cancer isn’t bad genes or bad luck—it’s damaged mitochondria.

This flips everything you’ve been told about how to treat & prevent cancer: 🧵

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@pedrojuanito007 @Dumenil_ Hey. What is the source, artist anything? :) Thx

[Abhishek @HeyAbhishek]

Grok-3 can now help you create Mind Maps.

Studying and understanding complex topics is now easier than ever.

Here’s how to create a mind map in just few minutes:

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@pakpakchicken Ken, is it possible to track her buy/sold on any web service (could you point some ?), or the only way is to get this info from news articles - could you point some finance news service considered reliable ? Or just some X account ? Thx.

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@unusual_whales hey @pakpakchicken ^

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@naiivememe @100trillionUSD for Nov 2025.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

It never ceases to amaze me the emotions that $TLSA and $NVDA create in the bulls and the bears. It's a war of philosophies and worldviews, and not really about the stocks themselves, obviously.

I think the world is going to split between those who want technology to prevail and those who don't and want things to stay the same, or even revert to a past memory of simpler times.

It's the same divide we see in those who invest in tech and those that look for "value".

However, the results have shown that over the last 30 years, technology has outperformed any other strategy ...over time. But this is clearly not about results.

This divide is likely going to be larger than the current "left vs right" as The Exponential Age begins to accelerate and this divide may well define the next 30 years.

I don't see how it will be stopped and thus don't see how it won't create more emotional conflict, if you let it.

To be fair, not everyone who dislikes TSLA or NVDA stock is driven by philosophy. Stocks go up, stocks go down, and the casino rightly allows you to profit or lose accordingly.

However, the long-term trends have been tough to fight thus far... and most people who are bullish or bearish now, have been so over the last 7+ years...

Also, whether you agree or disagree with the CEO/Founders worldview is not a reason for emotion in investing. Emotional investing is a surefire way to lose money. Yes, you also might think Elon or Jensen are showmen, but it's tough to bet against people who capture attention and memetics too. Markets are all about attention and storytelling; don't ever believe otherwise...

Ask yourself why you react to a number on a screen or a company that just sells stuff, and reflect on it. It will reveal more than you think about yourself, regardless of which side you fall on...

The same applies to crypto, EV/Green energy, Oil and Gas, banks, gold, the Dollar, etc. They are all hugely polarising based on philosophy, not opportunity.

You know which side of the fence I sit on, but my view is driven by the biggest trend of our lifetimes... the exponential growth of technology and its outperformance vs the market overall.

Let the big-picture trend be your friend...and best leave your emotions at the door.

[DoctorTro @DoctorTro]

Take a look at this graph from this large study published this month

People who had the highest LDL and lowest VLDL, had the best survival rates

I am going to repeat this because @realDaveFeldman predicted this -> the people with the HIGHEST LDL & lowest VLDL lives the longest and disease free

One more time: THE HIGHEST LDL with the lowest VLDL lived the longest and most disease free

https://t.co/sE8uXg6Hka

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@pakpakchicken Im not native in English. "Deploying" meaning in this context selling? Thx

[Fred Krueger #BIP-110 @dotkrueger]

I was able to re-create the Stock To Flow analysis of Plan B, in a Google Spreadsheet

It's MUCH LESS impressive than the earlier Power Law analysis of @Giovann35084111

Essentially the model estimates the price data, but expressed in natural logarithm of market cap rather than base 10 log of price. The Stock to Flow horizontal axis is calculated from the emmissions.

This is all start of year price data as before.

Essentially it is fitting really only 3 data points as all the rest are interpolated. It is much less interesting than the power law relationship versus time.

My friend @moneyordebt had mentioned this. I see it now for myself. Don't trust, Verify. Use Power Law not S2F.

https://t.co/hSYytVXaKI

[hcburger @hcburger1]

@dotkrueger @Giovann35084111 @coryswan S2F is mostly wrong because the S2F variable has the wrong shape to model the price/mktcap and is doomed to always overestimate the price. I have been saying this since early 2020, along with @peter_vijn
https://t.co/3kBYjmNnTX

[Fred Krueger #BIP-110 @dotkrueger]

Sometimes a convo changes your world view. Here's specifically what I learned with Giovani.

1. The power law model is quite simple to implement and understand. Why it is the 5.4-5.8 is a mystery.

2. I do think this model will hold its own going forward. I really do. But unlike PlanB, or Eric Walls rainbow monstrosity, it's not intended to provide a "hard floor". There is no such thing

3. If you own Bitcoin, you can probably expect to make close to 100% per year. For quite some years. But you will have huge drawdowns. Unless you lightenup on "bubble valuations" and "accumulate on dips". I am not completely convinced this is EVER a good idea, but lets see how i feel if we gap up to 500K this year.

4. Tech will be super-exponential, but may be a very poor investment. You don't know *which tech". Real Estate is going to be god awful.

5. @Giovann35084111 is a national treasure. What is it with Italy and these Physics guys. Here we have the "Fermi of Bitcoin Models".

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Why is #Bitcoin so much today (>58,000) ? Bcos after the ETFs saw $+500m of inflows on Monday, they saw another $580m inflows on Tuesday. Despite $-125m of #Grayscale outflows, #BlackRock had $520m of inflows in ONE day !!! -> read more: https://t.co/EV0AgIHxXK

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@RaoulGMI 😁 what about wines? With cheese.

[Benjamin Bikman @BenBikmanPhD]

Some of the worst advice a person with type 1 diabetes receives (at time of diagnosis) is "eat whatever you want and cover it with insulin". One (among several) way of defining the disease is an inability to metabolize glucose properly. I've long been puzzled, then, that dietary advice would actually encourage carbohydrate consumption (even refined carbs). With this in mind, I was pleased to see this recently published case report that documents the experience of a person with newly-diagnosed type 1 diabetes and their use of carbohydrate restriction: "We report a case of a patient with a late-onset classic presentation of T1DM who adopted a very low-carbohydrate diet and completely avoided insulin therapy for 18 months, followed by tight glycaemic control on minimal insulin doses." This is the proper strategy! #lowcarb #diabetes https://t.co/r9zy7ON7Wd

[Scott Novacki @pn_scott]

@100trillionUSD @SullyHickory @adam3us So how it goes with "cash is trash" - this 97% Cash on graph is corrected for inflation, right?