Conrad Pogorzelski III

Jesus Follower | Husband | Political Consultant

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

I am extremely honored and humbled to not only be included in this years National 30 under 30 for Republican Operatives, but to receive a special distinction among such an incredible group of people. This prestigious group includes operatives from more than two dozen states, and a variety of specialties and backgrounds.

As a consultant, it's rare to be recognized (positively) for your work. I want to thank @cygnal for starting such an incredible program that allows rising stars from across the country to connect with one another and share connections, experience, and valuable information.

This is just the beginning. It feels like a lifetime that I've been consulting, but the reality is that I started in 2019. Since then I have worked on 40+ campaigns including local, judicial, congressional, and statewide races with a win rate of just under 90%. I have flipped a seat held by Democrats for over 100 years, won a Bloomberg-targeted race while outspent 10-1, and served as North Carolina’s youngest chief of staff.
As many of you know, 2024 brought its challenges, but what many of you may not know- it also brought some incredible successes.

I have the privilege of having an incredible company, Endgame Consulting @Endgame_NC with some awesome business partners, @rjasonw and @BrandonCraft704

Together, we won two of the nation's most expensive congressional primaries in 2024, electing Congressman Mark Harris @MarkHarrisNC8 and Congressman Pat Harrigan @PatHarriganNC

But our success wasn’t limited to campaigns—Endgame Consulting was honored to lead the effort to pass North Carolina’s 2024 Citizens Only Voting Constitutional Amendment, working with a wide array of individuals and organizations to complete the task.
Together, we have built North Carolina's largest Republican Political Consulting firm- Endgame Consulting and are thrilled to deliver wins for our clients.
Thank you to everyone who has supported me over the years, especially my incredible wife, Victoria Pogorzelski who has been through it all with me.
Now on to 2025, 2026, and 2028


[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

A follow up to my analysis: Zooming in on cannibalism- specifically looking at voters who usually vote on Election Day, now voting early. The hope is that Dems are converting ED to EV voters. It’s simply not true. In fact Republicans are doing it at higher rates.

#ncpol

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

My deep dive on the current state of Early Voting in NC. With few exceptions, these are projections based on current trends, not my predictions about specific races. I'll publish my final predictions on all the races Sunday or Monday before Election Day. https://t.co/2iNaOuT0wB

[Team Knott @bradknottfornc]

North Carolina, in-person Early Voting BEGINS TODAY! 🗳️

To every voter in North Carolina’s 13th District: I’m running for re-election to keep your family safe and thriving.

Find your Early Voting site today and VOTE KNOTT:
https://t.co/1v0TMvM3xD

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

Absolutely horrible ad. They had something solid in their heads but couldn’t pull it off. As someone who has filmed a lot of ads it’s clear that the director finally gave up because this candidate was so awkward on camera

[Paul Barringer for Congress @PaulBarringerNC]

I’m running for Congress to fight against the issues making life more expensive. Things such as the Iran war that make our gas cost more, tariffs that make our food cost more, and groups like Duke Energy jacking up rates to pay for data centers.

#paulbarringerforcongress #ncpol

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

With Early Voting starting tomorrow, here's a bold prediction for the 2026 election: Unaffiliated voters will makeup the largest bloc of voters in the NC midterm.

There's going to be plenty of scoffing from politicos, pollsters, other consultants, and talking heads because of that hot take. In fact, I've already had this debate privately with some who think I'm wrong. But I think they are the crazy ones. We will see.

Here's what pollsters are doing: Most try to get their survey distributions to roughly match 2022, 2018, or some sort of mixed distribution. Sounds logical, but it's extremely flawed. Here's why:

The voter registration changes and specifically Dems overtaking Reps again has gained a ton of attention and rightfully so- as @JimBlaine pointed out, this can be a good indicator of enthusiasm.

What's not being talked about as much is the Unaffiliated bump. We have come to take it for granted in NC that UAs are growing, but the consequences of this are going to be felt this cycle.

While pollsters are trying to make their distributions match 2022, what they should be doing is overlaying turnout models on top of registration numbers. That's how you get the correct electorate.

In 2024, there were more UA voters who cast a ballot than Ds or Rs- a first in NC history. That is going to be repeated this cycle.

To make my point, I overlayed the 2022 turnout numbers by party on 2026 registrations which is what comprises the 2026 projections.

Here's what that means for the polls: Most are actually giving Rs a bump. Losing UAs by 10%-20% means anytime they are under-represented in a poll, so is Dem support.

The practical application is this: Candidate quality, campaign quality, and messaging are 100x more important than a normal midterm.

The result will be that certain Dems will win strong Republican seats, and Republicans will win seats that feel like they were inevitably going to go for Dems.

#ncpol

[Brent Buchanan, Pollster @brentbuc]

Despite holding a massive campaign cash advantage, only 24% of voters report seeing more Republican ads, while over 70% see more Democratic ads or an equal split.

Ad volume does not equal ad recall when the message fails to stick. A cash advantage is useless if ad buys focus on media weight instead of voter resonance.

Ad efficiency is an emotional connection challenge, not a media-buy problem...

https://t.co/YU3w7fIi9l

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

Updated analysis on mail ballot return rates. It's the first positive sign for Republicans I have seen since voting began

Republicans have now surpassed return rates of 2022. Previous analysis showed a gap of 2026- 2022 return rates of a -0.9% and now there is a gap of +0.5%, a net swing of +1.6%

Democrat's return gap between 2026 and 2022 has increased from +3.3% to +4.2%, a net swing of 0.9%, so a smaller increase from Republicans, but a bigger net gap overall

Unaffiliateds have also grown their gap from +3% to +3.9%

As I've said before, the raw vote count at this point (on the statewide level) is not nearly as interesting or helpful as these return rates. Why? Because mail ballots represent a drop in the bucket compared to the overall votes we will have for 2026

The mail ballot return rates are the best indicator of voter enthusiasm that we have at this point

The latest numbers indicate that Republicans are starting to re-engage and this is a good sign. BUT, this is not a reason for celebration, or even a reason to be optimistic. This trend has to continue, and not just continue, but Republicans have to surpass Dems in enthusiasm to makeup for the massive deficit that we have with unaffiliated voters

For reference, 2022 was a great year for Republicans in NC. That was because we had both a substantial turnout advantage, and a strong performance with UA voters. This cycle looks like we are on track to have both of those reverse.

#ncpol

[U.S. Attorney WDNC @USAO_WDNC]

U.S. Attorney Russ Ferguson met with Labor Commissioner Luke Farley w/ @NCDOL -- who inspects all the elevators in the state -- to talk about identity theft, employment fraud, and the e-verify process and potential improvements.

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

This sounds like the classic “You can’t fire me, I quit.”

This is also revisionist history. Trump very publicly threatened Tillis with a primary and then Tillis announced he wasn’t seeking re-election.

To be clear Tillis WAS running. He hosted fundraisers and publicly announced his campaign team.

@AndySpecht fact check?
#ncpol

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

POLITICO — Sen. Thom Tillis lashed out in private texts to Donald Trump earlier this year — saying he refused to take the president’s “bullshit” — and that, had Trump directly threatened him with a primary challenge — he would’ve “immediately told you to fuck yourself.”

https://t.co/kwpJWWuQPW

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

@realPrestonHill Very plausible

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

Current state of mail returns in NC. We are closing in on 15,000 votes for this cycle. Still just a drop in the bucket, but large enough sample sizes to see trends, and there's an extremely alarming one for Republicans.

This graphic is return rates of mail ballots. In simple terms, what % of people who requested an absentee ballot and then actually filled it out and returned it.

This is by far the best enthusiasm measurement that we have right now and it lines up with polling trends.

Dems are fired up, and UA voters are angry. Any Republican in a tight race needs to be investing in 2 things:

1. Turnout operations for your campaign specifically. Doors, calls, texts, and if you have the money for it- mail. Hate to disappoint but yard signs do nothing for turnout.

2. Messaging that speaks to voters about how you're going to address the very real problems that they are facing.

Cost of living is the top of every voters mind- and each level of government has a role to play. Don't just parrot national talking points if you're not in a federal race.

Acknowledge that people are struggling and talk specifically about what YOU are going to do. Do NOT try to run on accomplishments, no matter how good they are. Voters don't care. They are hurting. They don't want to hear about how you've done good things for them, they aren't feeling it as a reality.

Anyone in an R+10 or less should not take their race for granted.

#ncpol

[U.S. Attorney WDNC @USAO_WDNC]

U.S. Attorney Russ Ferguson spoke at @NCFaithFreedom's Salt and Light Conference in Marion, N.C. about the First Step Act, criminal justice, and recidivism. "The point of criminal justice is not just incarceration," said U.S. Attorney Ferguson, "but rehabilitation and giving people a meaningful opportunity to turn their lives around."

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

Major warning signs for Republicans in CD-11. Less so for NC House Republicans.

If you look at where the Buncombe increase is coming from, it's concentrated in 2 of the 3 Buncombe county state house seats.

The first is NC HD 114 where turnout is 150% of 2022. This seat is held by Eric Ager, Jamie Ager's brother. Whether it's organic turnout from voters who know the family, or an organized turnout operation, Jamie is benefitting from his brother.

The Second is NC HD 116 where turnout is 140% of 2022. This seat encompasses downtown and is held by Brian Turner.

Notably, the third Buncombe seat and the only one that currently has turnout lower than 2022 is NC HD 115 which is held by Lindsey Prather. Turnout here is 90% of 2022.

This seat is a target seat for NC Republicans. Prather won by 3% in 2024. However, that was in a great cycle for Republicans. If Republicans want to flip that seat, it's going to take a massive effort.

The big question is whether these trends continue, and importantly, if they hold as we enter in person early voting. #ncpol

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

Probably the most informative chart I’ve seen this cycle. $$ doesn’t lie. Public polling might be inconsistent, but $ is only spent where it can make a difference. This is by far the worst omen I’ve seen for Republicans.

#ncpol

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

Update. The average dollar is being spent in a Trump +6

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

@brentbuc Great example here in NC. Dems seem to be seeing the same thing

[Jamie Ager @JamieAgerNC]

Enough corporate greed. Enough self-serving politicians. Mountain families deserve a leader who won't follow the Washington herd.

#NC11 #WNC #NCpol

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

This is why people don't trust polling.
#ncpol

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

I've got good news and bad news about this poll for Republicans.

Good news is that this poll under sampled Rs and oversampled Ds. Likely good for 3ish points in the top line ballot share. The bad news is it's still a 12% gap according to this poll.

But while the topline numbers will get all the attention- here's what I as a political consultant find most interesting/ concerning: While both candidates have seen ballot share within their own party decline, Whatley's support among Republicans has dropped further than Cooper's decline with Democrats (which is within normal MOE). **Graphics attached if you want to see for yourself.

Some decline at this point in the cycle is normal. There's usually a U curve that we get for % of decided voters when you transition from one stage of the election to the next, and we are near the low point in that U curve.

The simplest explanation of this is that at the beginning of a cycle, both candidates start off as generic representatives of their parties, essentially they are just an R vs D (unless you're Cooper) and voters feel confident saying who they will vote for, even though they don't really know the candidates (again doesn't apply to Cooper)

Then, voters start to engage and realize they don't know enough about the candidates to make a decision (bottom of the U curve, and where we are currently)

Finally, as voters engage, money is spent, and the election draws near, voters as they say, "come home"

In other words, there's time to move the needle, but not much.

The next couple of weeks will be extremely telling. You will see tens of millions of dollars spent, and both parties will start bringing out what they feel are the most persuasive creatives they have.

You will likely see polling happening in the coming weeks as the national organizations finalize spending plans for the cycle. If things don't move here, we could see R spending reduced as they shift resources to other states that they feel are winnable.

#ncpol

[Carolina Journal @CarolinaJournal]

NEW POLL RESULTS: Dem. Roy Cooper's lead over Rep. Michael Whatley grows to 15.1 points in the race for NC's US Senate Seat.

[Conrad Pogorzelski III @pogo214]

25 years ago today (9/14, not 9/11) the greatest speech in American history was given. Love him or hate him there’s no denying he rose to the occasion and said the words everyone needed to hear in that moment.

[Fox News @FoxNews]

"I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon."

25 years ago, President George W. Bush gave his famous "I can hear you" speech at Ground Zero, just three days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

With one arm around retired FDNY firefighter Bob Beckwith and a bullhorn in the other, Bush thanked the rescue and recovery workers.

"America today is on bended knee in prayer for the people whose lives were lost here, for the workers who work here, for the families who mourn."

"This nation stands with the good people of New York City, and New Jersey, and Connecticut, as we mourn the loss of thousands of our citizens."