The Poker Wonk

My name is David Steinberg. I am a social scientist at Johns Hopkins University and the author of The Poker Wonk Substack.

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

I'm an amateur poker player and a professional social scientist. I teach data analysis and do research at Johns Hopkins. In my free time, I study poker the way I'd study any other dataset.

That project is now a newsletter: The Poker Wonk.

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

For more on how wetness and dynamism shape c-bet strategy in this very common spot, see my latest Poker Wonk post: https://t.co/JDfdYzgpuF

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

You’re on the Button in a single-raised pot vs Big Blind, 100bb deep. How often should you c-bet and what size should you use?

Two key features of the flop you should consider:
(1) How many draws are possible (wetness)
(2) how likely is the best hand to change (dynamism).

A 🧵.

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

Why bet big there? Top pairs tend to hold up on these flops, and the Big Blind has plenty of flush draws, gutshots and second-best hands that can call a large bet.

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

One important caveat: this is just one spot.

In the next few posts I will show that the patterns look quite different in other configurations.

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[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

What is the key to c-betting: wet vs dry or static vs dynamic? Or, as I put it yesterday, which @Barry_Carter is right?

The answer: both Barrys are right.

In Button vs Big Blind single-raised pots, wetness drives c-bet frequency and dynamism drives c-bet sizing.

A thread.

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

The main lessons: wet vs dry is not the wrong way to think about flops, and static vs dynamic matters too.

Both variables matter for different aspects of strategy.

Full post is available at: https://t.co/JDfdYzgpuF

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

Which Barry should I believe, @Barry_Carter?

Should I bet larger because the board is dynamic or because it is moderately wet?

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

There are two Barry Carters.

One wrote an article on how a flop’s wetness shapes your c-bet sizing.

The other co-wrote a book that calls wet vs dry “the wrong way of thinking about” board texture.

Which @Barry_Carter is right?

[The Poker Wonk @pokerwonk]

Tomorrow’s Poker Wonk post gives some new data-driven answers to this question. It looks at how wetness and dynamism influence c-betting in single-raised pots, Button vs Big Blind.

It’s free. Subscribe to get it in your inbox: https://t.co/9lZuJhw07T