Polian

Fantasy football as a market. Valuation, structure, risk & sentiment. Finding what consensus has mispriced.

[Polian @polianlabs]

Fantasy Football Analytics

EXPECTED: What normally happens?
OBSERVED: What happened?
SURPRISE: How abnormal was it?
HYPOTHESES: What could explain it?
DIAGNOSTIC EVIDENCE: What separates those explanations?
SYSTEM: What actually changed/what constrains it?

[Polian @polianlabs]

10/

Even if he catches a 50-yard TD.

[Polian @polianlabs]

1/
Marvin Harrison Jr. has run more routes in 2026.

And somehow become almost irrelevant to Arizona’s passing game.

That sounds contradictory.

It isn’t.

A Polian study on routes without opportunity 🧵

[Polian @polianlabs]

10/
So the Week 3 test is already written before we know the result:

Does Arizona change MHJ’s:

— route composition?
— aDOT?
— first-read share?
— TPRR?

If those remain similar, this starts looking less like an anomaly and more like an accepted offensive state.

[Polian @polianlabs]

@ffdataroma • Size/power questions for pure inside/short-yardage work

Elite speed + explosiveness were never the issue — which is why the early 2026 tape is validating the athletic profile over the small-sample rookie efficiency.

[Polian @polianlabs]

@ffdataroma Pre-draft knocks on Tuten’s skill set were mainly:
• Ball security (9 fumbles over last 2 college seasons)
• Inconsistent vision/patience between the tackles (often bounced outside early)
• Limited route tree + receiving polish
• Pass-pro technique still raw

[Polian @polianlabs]

@dwainmcfarland Routes tell you if the opportunity exists. Targets tell you if the player is converting opportunity into involvement. The edge isn’t picking one—it’s identifying when they diverge, understanding why, and determining whether that divergence is temporary or a state change.

[Polian @polianlabs]

Polian’s opportunity is to take reasoning, make the causal chain explicit, force competing explanations, quantify the expected deviation where possible, and then ask what observation would prove the causal story wrong.

[Polian @polianlabs]

Player x Role x Scheme x OpponentStructure x GameState

[Polian @polianlabs]

What should this player’s role and opportunity look like when this particular football system interacts with this particular opposing system?

[Polian @polianlabs]

Don’t seek more evidence. Seek evidence that would cause competing explanations to diverge.

[Polian @polianlabs]

STATE: Normal / Anomaly / Emerging / Accepted
NBO: What should we specifically watch next?
MARKET: Has price caught up?
ACTION: Buy / sell / hold / wait, with cost considered
INVALIDATION: What proves the thesis wrong?
AUDIT: Later—good/bad process × good/bad outcome.

[Polian @polianlabs]

Fantasy Football Analytics

EXPECTED: What normally happens?
OBSERVED: What happened?
SURPRISE: How abnormal was it?
HYPOTHESES: What could explain it?
DIAGNOSTIC EVIDENCE: What separates those explanations?
SYSTEM: What actually changed/what constrains it?