My final prediction tomorrow. I can be wrong though!
But to be honest PH is in a better position than 2 weeks ago. The road to retain previous seats is there, it all rests on turnout.
Memandangkan Ilham Centre dah keluarkan report, aku sedikit yakin nak keluarkan forecast.
This is a Monte Carlo simulation based on PRN15 dan GE15 ran on Claude.
Slight boost untuk incumbents & returning calon. Penalty untuk departing & racial mismatch.
CALL FOR DATA
Over the last few weeks, many people (especially those doing election work) have been using the datasets made available via https://t.co/7CsM8XRrlx.
Many of these - especially the Saluran-level results, anonymised voter rolls, and DM maps - are datasets that have never been openly available in Malaysia.
Tomorrow, Saluran-level data (Borang 14) will be available to political parties after counting.
If you are willing to share the data with me, please drop me a DM.
My promise is that I will clean and curate it to the highest standards, and make it open on https://t.co/Mryk0CtpE7 so that all Malaysians can benefit.
Tag your MP / ADUN so that they see this. Besides purchasing the data from SPR, this is the only other way (and the fastest way) to acquire it. It's about time we started having a more open ecosystem.
๐ช What if Malaysia had counted its votes differently?
Undi Lain re-runs every general election since 1955 under proportional representation (PR).
The one that jumps out: in 2013, BN took 60% of the seats on 47% of the vote โ losing the popular vote. Under PR, its majority evaporates. An end to the 56 year monopoly, five years ahead of schedule!
๐ https://t.co/OPRt4YEigt
My prediction on Malaysia's state polls for @malaysiakini, PN opposition gains but all six state governments should be retained by incumbents. Many seats still too close to call. Every vote will count!
https://t.co/tOlVvh9K1g
Wow! Kos cetak kertas undi PRN shaja dah boleh sponsor almost 600 university students. Ni ikut kos universiti swasta, kalau kos universiti awam lagi lah ramai