PollCheck

UK voting intention polls, seat projections & calculators. Independent tracker | Westminster • Locals

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

PollCheck Locals Performance:

National Seat Count - this was quite good, with Conservatives being the largest miss at 127 seats underestimated.

I missed some Conservative incumbency strength, especially in London Greens and Labour were about equally slightly overestimated.

Greens were underestimated in London and slightly over in other parts of England.

I'll also review 5 of the best and worst council calls I made. I've limited these to all out councils to make comparisons easier

Best:
Hammersmith and Fulham
Walsall
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Westminster
Birmingham

Worst:
Norfolk
Bradford
Sandwell
Suffolk
Bromley

🧵 1/10

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@Jake_Ventham @JLPartnersPolls Yes, the original version of the article had different wording

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

There's a Makerfield by-election poll from @JLPartnersPolls going around:

This does not appear to be a voting intention poll, but primarily a focus group. Respondents were also asked their voting intention, but this doesn't seem to be a representative constituency poll

112 Makerfield residents were asked six open-ended questions, which included their views on areas and changes they wanted prioritised, and also asked voting intention

Voting intention among respondents:

Labour: 31.2%
Reform: 30.4%
Green: 10.7%
Conservative: 10.7%
Lib Dem: 3.6%
Others: 13.4%

Article:
https://t.co/pp06hAPmzl

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@JLPartnersPolls Confirmed by JL Partners below - this was not a poll

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@charliemansell @politicsbetclub @JLPartnersPolls JL Partners have clarified https://t.co/SG72LMxTPO

[JL Partners @JLPartnersPolls]

JL Partners has not ran a voting intention poll in Makerfield. The poll numbers below are unweighted past vote numbers from a large-scale focus group exercise.

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Approval Ratings (NET)

Kemi Badenoch: -4% (+2)
Ed Davey: -12% (-3)
Nigel Farage: -13% (+3)
Zack Polanski: -25% (+1)
Keir Starmer: -44% (+4)

Via: More in Common
Field Work: 29 May - 1 June changes w/ 22-25 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Westminster Voting Intention:

Reform UK: 29% (-1)
Labour: 22% (+2)
Conservative: 21% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (=)
Greens: 10% (-3)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Others: 2% (-1)

Via: More in Common
MOE: ±2.1%

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Westminster Voting Intention:

Reform UK: 27% (+3)
Labour: 18% (+1)
Conservative: 18% (-1)
Greens: 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 13% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Others: 1% (-1)

Via: YouGov
MOE: ±2.0%
Field Work: 31 May-1 Jun changes w/ 25-26 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@ammacj Thanks, will fix

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@LukeTryl Really interesting thread - will there be a larger writeup?

On the weight of the decision- do you think this by-election will have significantly high turnout based on that?

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Polling of public sector union members:

Reform: 28% (+12)
Labour: 28% (-20)
Con: 13% (-3)
Green: 11% (+6)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)

Changes w/2024
Via @JLPartnersPolls
14-19 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@fodeballertoure @BMGResearch @theipaper Don't knows and Would not vote where the remainder

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

NEW:

Andy Burnham would lose a General Election to Reform if held today

With Burnham as leader:
Reform: 23%
Labour: 20%

With Starmer as leader:
Reform: 25%
Labour: 18%

Via: @BMGResearch / @theipaper
18-22 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

A small new feature on the Seat Calculator

What Would It Take? Shows the minimum vote share a party would to reach a seat majority based on the current model

Some interesting findings:

Labour or Reform could theoretically reach a majority on less than 29% of the vote. Both already have efficient distribution under FPTP, and while Labour are behind, they are in close second place in hundreds of marginal seats

Labour: 28.5%
Reform: 28.8%
Conservative: 30.5%
Green: 32.5%
Lib Dem: 38%

The Lib Dems need most: the current projection of 80 seats on 12.4% is efficient, but the vote is concentrated in the South and too thin elsewhere to scale.

https://t.co/TUpR7zY3qY

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Westminster Voting Intention:

Reform UK: 25% (-1)
Greens: 19% (+2)
Conservative: 18% (+1)
Labour: 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (-1)
Others: 6% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)

Via: Find Out Now
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 27 May changes w/ 20-21 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

New:

Lib Dems and Greens will form a joint administration to control Southwark council after the local elections

Labour fell from 52 seats to 29 at the elections, while LD and Greens have a combined 34

32 seats are required for control in Southwark

Via: @se1

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Approval Ratings (NET)

Kemi Badenoch: -6% (-1)
Ed Davey: -9% (+1)
Nigel Farage: -16% (-1)
Zack Polanski: -26% (+3)
Keir Starmer: -48% (-2)

Via: More in Common
Field Work: 22-25 May changes w/ 15-19 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Westminster Voting Intention:

Reform UK: 24% (-1)
Conservative: 19% (+1)
Labour: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Others: 2% (+2)
Your Party: 0% (=)

Via: YouGov
MOE: ±2.0%
Field Work: 25-26 May changes w/ 17-18 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Both Reform and Labour have risen since the Local elections

Reform from 26.6% on May 6th to 28% today (+1.4pp)

Labour from 18.6% to 20.1% (+1.5pp)

Although both are still lower than they were this time last year - Reform was at 30.4% and Labour at 22%

Reform look to be experiencing a smaller version of their 2025 post Locals bounce, while Labour are maybe having a small Burnham bounce already

(Figures based on 7 poll average)

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Westminster Voting Intention:

Reform UK: 30% (+1)
Labour: 20% (-3)
Conservative: 19% (+1)
Greens: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Others: 3% (=)

Via: More in Common
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 22-25 May changes w/ 15-19 May

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

@charliemansell Agreed, would expected 1-2% range for them and Cons based on G&D squeeze

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Pre-Survation Makerfield poll, I modelled the by-election using the 7 May Wigan locals plus the Burnham factor from Survation's post-G&D crosstabs

This gave:

Labour: 43.1%
Reform UK: 39.3%
Conservative: 7.3%
Green: 5.5%
Lib Dem: 4.0%
Other: 0.9%

This pre-dated Restore Britain entering and overestimates Conservative.

Another thing to look at is aggregating the 7 May council results across the 7 Gorton & Denton wards

Green: 37.7% (-2.9 vs G&D BE)
Reform UK: 27.0% (-1.7)
Labour: 25.2% (-0.2)

Caveat: in G&D the by-election came first, locals after, and Makerfield reverses this with locals first then by-election

If the same locals-vs-BE relationship holds, Makerfield's by-election may sit close to the 7 May ward results, with Burnham and Restore Britain as the two new factors layered on top.