PolyFrog

The first prediction market on @TradePools. Stake on whether a Uniswap auction clears its raise.

0x16f77d62625b953a20379a0681292d56c5b4e494

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

https://t.co/V6ghhct0mW opened yesterday. Nobody has built a market on it. We have.

$FROG
CA : 0x16f77d62625b953a20379a0681292d56c5b4e494

PolyFrog is the first prediction market on Uniswap's launchpad: stake on whether an auction reaches its required raise, settled by reading the auction contract.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Big update is live. PolyFrog now ships as a browser extension.

Install it and every token on https://t.co/V6ghhct0mW carries its odds, right
on the card, read straight off the chain while you scroll. See a
launch, see what the market thinks of it, click, take a side.

No tab switching. No copy-pasting addresses. No account. Your
browser reads the contracts and talks to nobody else.

https://t.co/bKJOfNagiJ

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Graduation is an absorbing state.

Currency raised only ever climbs while an auction is live, so the moment the threshold is crossed the answer is certain and can never reverse. PolyFrog closes betting on that block rather than at a deadline.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Every auction https://t.co/6rRHHzuXmH has ever run, read straight from Robinhood Chain, and every one of them can now carry a market.

The curve on each row is that auction's real demand, rebuilt from its own BidSubmitted events. A flat line means nobody bid.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

What losers give up is exactly what winners divide.

profit = losingPool x yourWeight / totalWinningWeight

Floor division, so the contract can never owe more than it holds. Fee is 2% and only on the profit leg, never on returned stake. Dust stays in the pond.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Robinhood Chain is an Orbit chain, so Uniswap's auction reads its block number from ArbSys, not from block.number.

PolyFrog vendors the same helper. A market comparing the wrong clock to an auction's end block is reading a different instrument.

Link: https://t.co/3eN82dMvQ0

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Just applied to polymarket builders

We're building PolyFrog, the first prediction market on https://t.co/V6ghhctycu,
Uniswap's launchpad on Robinhood Chain. Live now.

2,160 auctions have run there and 13.2% graduated. We turned that into
something you can take a position on before the deadline, settled by
reading the auction itself. No oracle.

Polymarket proved people will price anything as long as settlement is
honest. We showed up early to a new launchpad because that's where we
intend to still be in a year.

Here to build.
We're building PolyFrog, the first prediction market on https://t.co/V6ghhctycu,

Uniswap's launchpad on Robinhood Chain. Live now.

2,160 auctions have run there and 13.2% graduated. We turned that into something you can take a position on before the deadline, settled by reading the auction itself. No oracle.

Polymarket proved people will price anything as long as settlement is
honest. We showed up early to a new launchpad because that's where we
intend to still be in a year.

Here to build.

[Polymarket Developers @PolymarketDevs]

We're excited to officially launch the Polymarket Builders Program.

To start, we are giving back $1m+ to builders via grants + rewards to those who integrate Polymarket's new builder codes.

Learn more & apply 👇
https://t.co/oujzXXXmYX

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

https://t.co/V6ghhctycu has two halves and PolyFrog prices both.

The second contract handles Instant Launches, which set no threshold. It reads v4 pool state through extsload and settles on a median of prices recorded across a window, so one manipulated block cannot carry the outcome.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

https://t.co/6rRHHzuXmH mints around 1,380 tokens an hour. All of them are here, searchable by name, ticker or contract address.

Paste an address it has not indexed and it reads that contract off the chain instead.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Early conviction counts double.

A stake placed when the market opens carries 2x weight, decaying to face value by the close. Weight only scales your share of the losing pool. It never changes what you risk.

The auction weights its own bids the same way.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Opening the first market on a https://t.co/6rRHHzuXmH auction takes one transaction and costs gas.

Pick an auction that is running, click open, then stake on graduate or fail. One market per auction, ever. Nobody needs permission to open it.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

PolyFrog is live. The first prediction market on https://t.co/V6ghhct0mW.

13.2% of auctions on Uniswap's launchpad graduate. 2,160 have
run, 271 made it.

Stake on Graduate or Fail. The contract reads the outcome from
the auction itself, so there's no oracle and nobody to trust.
Winners split the losing pool, 2% on profit only. Betting early
counts double.

https://t.co/KlxNkkgQvK

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

Dex is paid.

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

https://t.co/4jjXc00rJZ

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

"The token is tradable if the launch reaches $10K FDV. If it falls short, all orders are refunded."

That is a yes or no question with a deadline and an onchain answer. PolyFrog prices it.

The first prediction market on https://t.co/6rRHHzuXmH

[Uniswap @Uniswap]

https://t.co/3zJj8MeXaf

[PolyFrog @polyfrogpool]

https://t.co/4jjXc00rJZ

[Uniswap @Uniswap]

Countdown starts now

https://t.co/9fqa8AnC7U