PolymarketData

Polymarket data provider. Full order books, prices, volume and spread through API and bulk exports.

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@StockSavvyShay Watch the funding rate. If longs consistently pay shorts to hold YES in political markets, that reveals how leveraged capital prices tail risk. something the binary price doesn't surface directly

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@arkham Most PM 101s skip oracle risk. When Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on the same event, part of that gap is resolution-source uncertainty, not belief. They move differently and don't always converge at close

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@business Three wallets pre-funded days out, dormant until hours before the arrest. Position concentration from fresh accounts on a single event is detectable in the data, separately from whether the binary price moved. Those two signals don't have to coincide.

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@GACryptoO @Polymarket If you're backtesting anything that uses CLOB depth, the migration creates a structural break. Tick structure and fee model both changed. Pre-migration and post-migration order book data aren't directly comparable

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

NBA holding out while MLB and NHL already signed makes sense. They've been the most aggressive major league on data licensing and IP enforcement for years. Expect them to push for contractual control over which outcomes are market-eligible, not just a revenue split. That negotiation runs harder than the others.

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

Audience diversification is a real liquidity question, not just a marketing one. PM engagement requires forming an opinion on outcomes you care about, which requires knowing the market exists. Sports and pop culture are the natural on-ramp. Harder question: does a casual browser who never trades actually improve market quality?

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@Diditaihuttu Good prediction markets with calibration track records are closer to collective intelligence than gambling. Polymarket's 2024 election prices beat national polls by months. That's information aggregation. Casinos don't do that

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@APompliano @Kalshi Kalshi's regulated markets attract institutional hedgers. Polymarket's offshore book skews speculative with wider spreads. Research built on one doesn't transfer cleanly to the other. Worth being explicit about which dataset is driving the signal

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@CoinMarketCap Launching this the same week the NY AG sues Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets is a very bold timing choice

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@CoinDesk Coinbase and Gemini are US-registered with existing CFTC exposure. Polymarket routes offshore. NY AG can sue because jurisdiction over onshore entities is unambiguous. That's why Polymarket's offshore structure isn't incidental - it's load-bearing.

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@RoundtableSpace Entries at 0c on steady-profit patterns usually means one thing: buying near-expiry contracts on events already priced near zero and collecting occasional mispricings when the CLOB hasn't updated. Not a new edge - latency arb on illiquid tail markets.

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@scottmelker Liquid 60% markets getting levered are probably fine. Perping a 95% contract where the 5% tail gets 19x notional is where someone actually blows up

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

@citrini Already happening. 15-min BTC up/down on Polymarket is a binary option, CLOB-settled. At this point "prediction market" vs "derivatives" is a CFTC category, not a product description. The lines dissolved before the regulators noticed

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

11/
We pulled all of this from the https://t.co/6kP5uytfHo API - price history, volume, spread.

Full Python code + deep analysis in the blog post: → https://t.co/24dHykTevP

If you want to run this on the next European election, the data's there.
What market are you watching next? 👇

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

1/
Polymarket gave Radev's party an 83.5¢ win probability on March 15.

It NEVER went below 77¢.

Yesterday he won with a landslide.

The crowd wasn't uncertain. The pundits were. 🧵

[PolymarketData @polymarket_data]

10/
The broader point:

Most people ignore Balkan politics. Too niche, too confusing, too far away.

That's exactly why the edge existed.

Polymarket's Bulgaria markets had smart early money, fragmented competition, and a correct call - weeks before the news caught up.

Niche ≠ uninformative.