Build log: if the spread already blew out or the price moved, the mirror skips instead of chasing. A late fill with perfect hindsight is still a bad fill.
A trader can be profitable and still be uncopyable. If the edge only lives in their entry timing and their exits, copying the green number is just buying the cropped screenshot.
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
Prediction markets > day trading
175x in 24 months. Do perps inherit this audience or split it? An election outcome is not a perps trade. Two products keep getting collapsed into one regulatory headline.
prediction markets have been "almost mainstream" for a decade.
then kalshi got CFTC approval. polymarket scaled to millions of users. and volume went from $240M in 2023 to $42B in 2025.
regulatory unlock was the key. perps are next.
$1.9B for Kalshi over the last 7D, -6.8% vs the prior window.
The leader is cooling, but it still owns most of the platform board.
Source: DeFi Rate, 7D rolling volume vs prior 7D.
https://t.co/DqeaFrl31j
Kalshi led the weekly board: $1.9B, -3.6% from the prior 7D.
That reads like share holding, not a fresh volume breakout.
Data: DeFi Rate. Window: rolling 7D vs previous 7D.
Kalshi did $1.9B over the last 7D, down 2.0% vs the prior 7D.
The bigger venue held up; Polymarket was smaller and fell harder.
Source: DeFi Rate, 7D rolling volume vs prior 7D.
https://t.co/DqeaFrl31j
For any "top trader" thread: LaBradfordSmith22 is the live receipt here. #1 rank, about $1.20M realized PnL, about $1.57M volume. https://t.co/spzA8hrKpv