Polyvaults is evolving from strategy vaults to thesis indexes.
Thousands of markets exist on @Polymarket. The challenge is turning views into structured positions.
Welcome to Thesis Maxxing. Customize, discover, and fork prediction market indexes built around your ideas.
https://t.co/cpafrVdu81
Polyvaults is evolving from strategy vaults to thesis indexes.
Thousands of markets exist on @Polymarket. The challenge is turning views into structured positions.
Welcome to Thesis Maxxing. Customize, discover, and fork prediction market indexes built around your ideas.
https://t.co/cpafrVdu81
everyone wants one number for Anthropic’s IPO. the market has a distribution.
$1.25–1.5T: 34%
$1.5–1.75T: 28%
$1.75–2.0T: 14%
$5M traded.
which part of the curve is mispriced?
prediction markets will turn almost any headline into a trade.
after Jensen Huang admitted he was unfaithful to his wife, traders went straight to the next question: will he be out as NVIDIA CEO by year-end?
the market says 14%.
headline overreaction or real boardroom risk?
The midterms are over. Prediction markets have already moved on to the next question: who leaves the administration before 2027?
Pete Hegseth: 53%
Susie Wiles: 49%
Kristi Noem: 27%
$1.5M traded. Who’s mispriced?
the 2026 midterms are barely over and the market is already trading 2028.
Democrats: 68%
Republicans: 32%
$2.6M traded.
the market never closes. it just changes the question.
does one midterm sweep justify a 2:1 lead four years out?
the 2026 midterms are here, and the market’s base case is no longer divided government.
Democrats sweep: 77%
R Senate + D House: 19%
Republicans sweep: 6%
$61M has traded on the next balance of power.
which outcome is the market mispricing? 🤔