William

[Wall Street Nomads @wallstnomads]

Anybody want one of our new badges?

We are also doing a JV with all tattoo parlors across the planet so that you can have it tattooed on your forehead if you prefer.

Let me know if interested.

[William @ponyGod2]

@CaesarCapitalz Did you find any news around G2 financing? I think it’s the biggest risk rn

[Biotech2k @Biotech2k1]

Tech Framework:

Tech Framework

TECH INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK
Version 2.0 — Full System (Fundamental Score + Value Score + Red Flags + Competitive Landscape)
Total Structure: 0–10 Fundamental Score + 0–10 Value Score

I. FUNDAMENTAL SCORE (0–10 Points)
Each category uses a 0–2 or 0–1 scoring band.
Total possible = 10 points.

1. Revenue Growth (0–2 points)
Measures: Current YoY revenue growth quality.
0 points: < 20%
1 point: 20–25%
2 points: > 25%

2. 3–5 Year CAGR (0–2 points)
Measures: Long-term compounding engine.
0 points: < 20%
1 point: 20–25%
2 points: > 25%

3. Profitability (0–2 points)
Measures: Unit economics, operating leverage, and earnings quality.
0 points: No path to profitability within 24 months
1 point: Clear path to profitability within 12–24 months
2 points: Already profitable with expanding margins

4. Competitive Advantage / Moat (0–1 point)
Measures: Structural defensibility.
0 points: Weak or no moat
1 point: Strong moat (network effects, switching costs, data advantage, regulatory advantage, ecosystem lock-in)

5. TAM (0–1 point)
Measures: Realistic economic TAM, not headline TAM.
0 points: < $1B
1 point: ≥ $1B

6. Management (0–2 point)
Measures: Management Quality
0 points: Credibility issues; poor governance; repeated execution failures.
1 point: Mixed track record; some execution gaps but generally competent.
2 points: Proven operators; strong capital allocation; transparent communication; consistent execution.

Fundamental Score Interpretation
8–10: Category-defining, elite, investable
6–7: Solid, investable with conditions
4–5: Watchlist only
0–3: Avoid

II. VALUE SCORE (0–10 Points)

Direct translation of the biotech Value Score into business fundamentals.

1. Economic TAM (0–2 points)
Measures: Realistic revenue opportunity after adjusting for penetration, pricing, competition, and regulation.
0 points: Small or structurally constrained TAM
1 point: Good TAM with moderate runway
2 points: Massive, expanding TAM with long-term compounding potential

2. Revenue Durability & Predictability (0–2 points)
Measures: Recurring revenue quality and forward visibility.
0 points: Volatile or low-quality revenue
1 point: Moderately predictable
2 points: Highly recurring, sticky, multi-product, high NRR

3. Margin Structure & Operating Leverage (0–2 points)
Measures: Scalability and long-term profitability.
0 points: Low margins, no leverage
1 point: Improving margins
2 points: Strong leverage + expanding margins

4. NPV per Share vs Price (0–2 points)
Measures: Valuation relative to long-term economics.
0 points: Overvalued
1 point: Fairly valued
2 points: Undervalued / mispriced excellence

5. Dilution & Balance Sheet Risk (0–2 points)
Measures: Capital structure, dilution, and financial stability.
0 points: High dilution or balance sheet risk
1 point: Moderate risk
2 points: Strong balance sheet, low dilution, low credit risk

Value Score Interpretation
8–10: Mispriced excellence
6–7: Reasonably valued
4–5: Fully valued
0–3: Overvalued / avoid
III. RED FLAGS (Override System)

Any major red flag can override both scores and move a company to Avoid.

A. Business Model Red Flags
Structurally negative unit economics
CAC rising faster than LTV
High churn masked by aggressive acquisition
Overreliance on one product or customer
No pricing power

B. Financial Red Flags
Heavy dilution
Unsustainable debt
Low-quality revenue (one-time, non-recurring)
Aggressive accounting practices

C. Regulatory Red Flags (Tech-Specific)
Capital adequacy issues
Regulatory investigations
Fraud exposure
Compliance failures
High credit risk without proper reserves

D. Competitive Red Flags
No moat
Race-to-the-bottom pricing
Entrants with superior economics
Losing share in a growing market

E. Management Red Flags
Overpromising
Inconsistent guidance
Poor capital allocation
Hype-driven communication

IV. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS

Contextual layer to interpret scores.

1. Category Position
Leader
Challenger
Niche
Commodity

2. Moat Type
Network effects
Switching costs
Data advantage
Regulatory advantage
Brand trust
Ecosystem lock-in

3. Threats
Incumbents
New entrants
Substitutes
Platform risk (Apple, Google, Amazon)

4. Market Structure
Winner-take-most
Fragmented
Regulated
Low-margin commodity

V. FINAL INTERPRETATION MATRIX

Two‑Axis Framework
Fundamental Score = business quality
Value Score = valuation attractiveness

Portfolio Implications
High‑quality + undervalued → priority buys
High‑quality + expensive → monitor
Low‑quality + undervalued → avoid traps
Low‑quality + expensive → remove

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

It pains me to say this, but many of you are simply not focused enough on value creation processes

[William @ponyGod2]

@CaesarCapitalz The first signs of basic universal income…

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

https://t.co/auOjU0ELSh

[William @ponyGod2]

@Fingerinya If you’re worried about MRL economics but still bullish on the oil thesis. You should look into Tenaz Holdings (dual listed). They use Canadian assets to deliver O&amp;G to the European market.

[William @ponyGod2]

@BrandonWealth $TNZ.NE 100$ in 2027!!! They use Canadians assets to deliver O&amp;G to the European market

[ApexPrognosticator @PrognosticApex]

Silver deficit is so bad that they are giving it away. Because. Deficit? Wut?

Maybe SD just hates money?
Maybe they are just real down home folks who want to fight the banking cartels all by themselves?

Or maybe...just maybe... Investment (one of the top 4 pillars to silver demand) is in low demand right now.

[William @ponyGod2]

@rynokinsight Hey do you know why TNZ is down so much today? Earnings are not bad…?

[William @ponyGod2]

@ren_stocks Hey could you look up $NTSK might be worth something instead of the big cybersecurity names

[William @ponyGod2]

@KC_Invests Curious, what are your holdings? No TNZ?

[William @ponyGod2]

@TheBigBerbowski @optionscjp There’s a good chance the earnings might not be great which would send the stock lower

[Gavin licensed to shitpost (humanist/acc) @GavMcCracken]

Palpatine: “Anakin, did the Jedi ever tell you why your generation cant afford homes?”

Anakin: “No, Chancellor.”

Palpatine: “I thought not. Yoda bought his first property 800 years ago for a few gold coins. Once his generation owned enough, they abolished the gold standard to inflate valuations & perpetually pay people less salary than inflation, which they measured themselves and called "CPI".

[William @ponyGod2]

@KC_Invests I can’t wait for 2027, I never bought oil before and never want to do it again, it’s so heavily manipulated, holding oil is a pain fr

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

If you look closely enough, breakthroughs in everything are accelerating exponentially.

An exponential always starts off looking small.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Meloni Confirms About €5 Billion of Budget Financed by Banks: BBG

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Let me get all the hate here but I am gonna go all in on this one.

If you follow finance accounts on X, save this. These are the red flags I’ve learned to watch for over the years:
1. They only show winners. Somehow every losing idea disappears from the timeline.

2. They can never say “I was wrong.” There is always an excuse, a new timeframe, or a changed thesis.

3. Their position magically becomes “small” after the stock crashes. But when it was green, they couldn’t stop posting about it.

4. They post the percentage gain from the low instead of their actual return. A stock bouncing 40% doesn’t help much if they bought it 70% higher.

5. Every stock has a ridiculous price target. Everything is a 3x, 5x, 10x “generational opportunity.”

6. Everything that drops becomes “deep value.” They confuse a lower price with a better investment.

7. They constantly average down into broken trends without ever explaining where they admit the thesis failed.

8. They have no stop-loss philosophy. There is never a price where they’re wrong.

9. They never discuss position sizing. Every idea sounds like a conviction buy until it blows up - then suddenly it was “only a tiny position.”

10. They speak with certainty about uncertain outcomes. “This WILL happen.” “Guaranteed.” “Impossible to lose.”

11. They sell the dream more than they teach the process. Lambos, screenshots, massive gains, retirement by 30 — but very little actual education.

12. They constantly remind you how accurate they are. Good work should speak for itself.

13. They cherry-pick entry prices after the move happens. Somehow they always bought the exact bottom.

14. They attack anyone who questions the thesis instead of discussing the argument.

15. They treat followers like exit liquidity. Heavy promotion appears after a huge move rather than before the opportunity.

16. Their entire analysis is narrative. A stock they bought at $150, $120 and $80 is now $30, but somehow the story is still “it’ll come back.” If your average is $120, you need a 300% gain just to break even.

17. They confuse a good company with a good stock at any price.

18. They make fear their business model. Every pullback is a crash coming. Or greed is their business model. Every rally is the beginning of the next 10x.

19. Their paid product depends on constant urgency. “Last chance.” “Don’t miss this.” “This stock is about to explode.”

20. They make you feel stupid for taking profits. They make you feel weak for cutting a loss. They discourage independent thinking. You’re supposed to follow them instead of learning how to make decisions yourself.

21. They have been through one bull market and suddenly teach people how markets work. A prolonged bear market exposes processes that easy markets hide.

22. Their followers are buried in drawdowns while they’re constantly posting victory laps.

Most importantly: their incentives are different from yours. They may get paid when you click, subscribe, or keep watching. You only get paid when you protect and grow your capital.

Save this one.

Nobody is perfect. Having one or two of these doesn’t automatically make someone bad.
But if someone checks half this list, stop giving them your attention - and definitely stop giving them your money.

[William @ponyGod2]

@__Con_ Do you expect a pull back on SPY that would last a few months like in 2022 though?