@leothetiger Enjoyed listening to everyone’s process and the humble beginnings. The grit, lessons learned, and the humor of being a “blue collared” trader. It was real and relatable. Must listen for any trader. Showcases the grind, joys, and dark parts of this business. Gem
@paxtrader777 I traded the 30 second OR on NQ for the last 4 weeks while using market profile as targets. It has leveled up my trading. simple, repeatable, and scaleable. Thank you for providing your insights and the history behind this process for free. Grateful that you are on this platform
@joeshortsqueeze Some just have so much money and yes “dumb” enough not to know where to allocate. So they buy annuities and they pay ridiculous fees then wonder why they don’t make as much as they were “guaranteed”
@paxtrader777 I have been only trading the OR within my trading plan. It was good for 40 pts early in the session, and good for another 100+ pts after tariff news updates while taking profits along the way. Walking away and coming back tomorrow. Thank you for sharing your insights on Twitter
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Aside from the ever-present geopolitical risks, this is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar. We’ve got some FED speeches, Empire State data, retail sales, and jobless claims—which will likely be messy due to the hurricane and strikes. Overall, a quieter week should give us a better sense of where people truly believe prices should be.
For stocks, we remain in a high-risk beta portfolio. While it felt tough to buy a few weeks ago, it’s turned out to be the best trade of the year. We still see no signs of bearishness. The market is always unpredictable, but being short doesn’t seem advisable right now. Soon, the quant system should switch to an all-weather portfolio to lock in gains, but we’re not seeing any signs of overextension in price action. Many of our models still suggest more upside is possible. We wouldn’t add any new positions here, but we recommend holding all core positions.
Bonds continue to spiral. We’ve closed all shorts on the 10-year and will likely trade to the upside if there’s a recovery or economic scare. The yield curve is flattening daily, and the easy money has been made on the short side. As mentioned previously, both the 10-year and long bond are now 2 standard deviations away from their 20- and 50-day moving averages, respectively.
There could be a sharp push higher, presenting another shorting opportunity, but until there’s some easing in the overextended nature of the move, we suggest looking for short-term bullish opportunities. Be quick and nimble. The FED’s 50-basis point cut has fueled this move lower, and you don’t want to trade against such a fundamental shift for too long.
The dollar remains favored over the euro, but the sell-off to the 1.09 level should start bringing some buying pressure into focus. While we still believe that EU economies are in worse shape than the US, and Japan for that matter, we don’t want to get caught in a reflexive short-covering rally. We’ve closed all long dollar positions and are waiting for another pop higher in EURUSD to short. USDJPY has shown strength near the 150 level, but we expect some profit-taking around this area as well. Waiting for a better opportunity seems like the most prudent choice.
Oil continues to push higher on geopolitical drama and rumors of secret nuclear attack plans, but every rally is being sold. OPEC has cut its oil demand outlook for the third consecutive month, and the realization of a future with abundant supply has caught many off guard. While we still like dips into the $71.50 level, extreme caution is needed. You don’t want to get caught holding the bag if oil starts pushing lower again. If $71.50 breaks, the next level is $68. We expect strong support there, but even that level won’t hold forever. The best trades to look for are shorting opportunities near $80 and long positions around $68. Jumping in too early could leave you vulnerable to headlines. There’s a great opportunity here, as speculators and fundamentals have radically diverged. Focus on the extremes.
Apologies for not having much to say about gold or BTC. While I’d love to wax poetic about them, they’re just not interesting at these levels.
Summary:
OPEC has cut its oil demand growth outlook for the third consecutive month. This week’s economic calendar is relatively quiet, with FED speeches, Empire State data, retail sales, and jobless claims expected.
In stocks, we remain in a high-risk beta portfolio, with no signs of bearishness and potential for further upside. Bonds have spiraled, and we’ve closed all shorts on the 10-year, waiting for better opportunities on the long side. The dollar is favored over the euro, but we’re cautious about a potential short-covering rally in EURUSD, while USDJPY is approaching profit-taking levels near 150.
Oil is rising on geopolitical concerns, but every rally is being sold. We’re eyeing shorting opportunities near $80 and long positions around $68, with caution in the current volatile environment. Gold and BTC remain uninteresting at these levels.
Good luck and God bless!
@PiQSuite