Chris Papadopoullos

ESG and sustainable finance. GlobalData. Previously OMFIF, Unquote & City AM.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

From Andrew Bailey's interview with Lionel barber. I'm not sure Bailey knows what 'groupthink' means...

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

It's not team transitory vs team permanent any more on #inflation , it's wage-price cyclists vs money supply watchers

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

@ojblanchard1 Central banks in practice prefer to use 'the counterparts approach' to understand broad money changes rather than the multiplier.

The competing approaches explained here: https://t.co/0qA8ZGlDrF

Chart from ECB:

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

As significant as the Inflation Reduction Act but discussed hardly as much. EU's carbon border tax and updated emissions trading system takes another step forward. https://t.co/0C0OrFkneb

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Interesting Tenreyro speech. Key message is that central bankers and academics are still allergic to any mention of broad money/money supply despite increased attention from investment commentary and financial press

https://t.co/9nU2pZcWlF

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

In case you're wondering why your flat white has been getting worse, it's because arabica beans nearly doubled in price and are being replaced/cut with cheapo robusta. Some hope in recent price falls.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Why would anyone want to leave Canary Wharf? It's got security, the Liz line, is shaking off its soulless business district vibe, and even has a Greggs.

https://t.co/pfZs31DZ9e

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Potentially better mon pol approach: pick a yield curve you like, set a corridor around it, offer to always buy at the ceiling and sell at the floor. Lift/steepen curve to tighten policy, steepen if market converts too much long debt to short. Merge central banks & debt managers

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Speak of the devil

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

I think I recall Gertjan Vlieghe saying in a BoE Q&A that high public & private debt => rates wouldn't need to rise as much in tightening cycle. Shame he left.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Enjoyed this brief, level-headed note. LDI: The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated https://t.co/v9v3eODsbT

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Monetary aggregates fell out of fashion during the 1990s due to a loss of usefulness and associations with the free market politics of monetarism, but have proved a reliable indicator of demand and inflation over the 2010s, more so than the labour market https://t.co/0qA8ZGmbhd

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

The Bank of England has sneakily got back its pre-1997 powers - financial supervision and now debt management - but managed to keep its independence. Too much power for an independent institution? https://t.co/IlgozXmuEh

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

In 2020 I asked Sir Robert Stheeman, who manages the UK's national debt, whether the UK's macro framework could handle an environment like the current one. Here's what he said:
https://t.co/g7JqLXIiXj via @OMFIF

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

In 2020 I asked Sir Robert Stheeman, who manages the UK's national debt, whether the UK's macro framework could handle an environment like the current one. Here's what he said:
https://t.co/g7JqLXIiXj via @OMFIF

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

Obviously the fiscal mishap is important, but the Bank of England's abrupt ending of unofficial yield curve control was always going to cause problems in the gilt market

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

I think I recall Gertjan Vlieghe saying in a BoE Q&A that high public & private debt => rates wouldn't need to rise as much in tightening cycle. Shame he left.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

@Gilesyb Related point - the BoE has got back the powers it lost
in 1997: fin supervision and debt management, but managed to keep its independence. Sneaky.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

"bond markets are set for trouble" - 16th September, a week before the maxi budget, on problems with the UK's macro framework https://t.co/IlgozXmuEh via @CapX

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

The Bank of England doesn't appear to have done many speeches/papers on the financial stability impact of a rapid rise in long-term yields. Seems like an obvious thing to have done.

[Chris Papadopoullos @popdoplis]

But financial stability...