post hoc bad-nalysis

bio. tech/ai. biotech. techbio. bio phd. just thinking out loud and recording thoughts.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

Predictions for 2026:
1. We see goated models trained on Blackwell clusters in 1H26, which reinvigorates the market’s appetite for capex spending. The market has currently become bored with model leaps.

2. Semiconductor WFE names skyrocket as fabs are given permission by the market to go crazy on capex following #1. This will be 2H.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@perceptnet if electricity is priced differently at different times of day, then the model APIs should dynamically route inference to DCs in off-peak time zones, not default to increasing price.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

Zuckerberg $META will never sell his compute because that’s like giving someone your girl for the night. Elon $TSLA $SPCX doesn’t give a shit about that

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@AppleHelix I have sizable bets on life science tools and bioprocessing as the next AI capex theme as mainstream tech begins to give more attention here

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@Vulpescap All of the charged peptide delivery oligos have been canceled. $PEPG already canceled their DMD program at 10 mg/kg MAD. Expect similar with DM1. SRPT had to nuke theirs too.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@AppleHelix This isn’t going to be typical life science VCs investing in this though

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@Sanctuary_Bio @adamfeuerstein Only one Sell rating from sell side. Irresponsible that more don’t call this out tbh

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@TheLAPurchaser definitely wasn't, but maybe now

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@ramahluwalia same with life science tools names too. $DHR $TMO $RGEN

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@tom_grlla @CousinGraig $RGEN is a pure play

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

next AI buildout play is bioprocessing and life science R&D. Buy $RGEN $DHR and later, $TMO

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@KarstResearch TDOC Livongo

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@adamfeuerstein @laurencurehd uniQure* ;)

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@GeneInvesting shocker, fixed-dose drug doesn't work for all patients. did you know some people are intolerant to statins too? :o

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@TMTLongShort there were already monthly injection drugs that produced the same effect. this is not really a breakthrough

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

Some people only know how to joke by putting others down. Avoid those people at all costs. I've never met a satisfied person who has that habit.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

no, it's going to pull liquidity away from large-cap tech. $MAGS short

[Myles @finphysnerd]

I try not to time the market too much. But it really feels like SpaceX, anthropic and openai IPOs coming over the next few months will have to draw liquidity away from other junkier stuff, right after a huge speculative runup. I feel like it might be time to size up junk shorts.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@ramahluwalia esp re midterm cycle

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@ramahluwalia there's also a reasonable chance Trump/repubs would boost residential solar subsidies as a counter to high utility/oil prices as a pressure release.

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Mega cap tech will get hurt
https://t.co/OwpzcU9ahr

[post hoc bad-nalysis @posthocanalysis]

With SpaceX going public, and OpenAI and Anthropic on the horizon, think about where the capital for those IPOs will come from. Large cap tech mangers will have to sell positions in $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $NVDA $META $MSFT to fund those purchases. Keep that in mind. Always look for where the capital flows are going and where they are coming from.