Happy SpaceX IPO day! As a fun game, I randomly selected 10 of Elon's 50 most recent tweets, as well as 10/50 of his tweets 10 years ago and shuffled them together.
Can YOU tell the difference between Elon today and Elon from way back then?
"Seeking to protect its economic crown jewel, these officials said, #Qatar approached Tehran at the start of the war to present a mutually beneficial arrangement: #Iran would refrain from hitting Ras Laffan, and Qatar would halt gas production unilaterally — a move that would send energy prices soaring and put economic pressure on the United States and Israel to shorten the war."
https://t.co/67SdWgWlcb
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
My fave part about this scene is that these are all basically psych manipulation tactics John Kiriakou claims Mossad uses to haze & screw with CIA officers stationed in Israel. To a point where I can’t tell if the show is just rigorously researched or he was ripping it off lol
Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
Let’s see what happens in coming days.
Link: https://t.co/MFCRLUCHDw
Full text:
A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements determined by Iran.
Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and related derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial revenues.
The United States and its allies would be required to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
A 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the complete removal of U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, as well as the repeal of relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors.
Reaffirmation by Iran of its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
During the negotiation period, the United States would commit not to deploy additional forces to the region and not to impose any new sanctions.
The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.
Establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of the agreement.
The final agreement would be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.
Final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets, the suspension of oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement would focus exclusively on the future of enriched nuclear material and uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a program for rebuilding Iran’s economy. Discussion of Iran’s missile program and its support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda.
As stated by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, this text still requires review and final approval by the relevant authorities in Iran.
There is currently a conspiracy being uncovered which proves beyond reasonable doubt that Guy Fieri has never been filmed swallowing food in over a decade of television
Tabshour ('Chalk') the donkey goes viral in Lebanon after braying with joy upon seeing his human best friend for the first time since they were separated by war
'Damn this war that separated us'