Potometrics

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US job numbers were revised down by -1,029,000 jobs in 2025, the largest annual revision in at least 20 years.

This follows downward revisions of -818,000 in 2024 and -306,000 in 2023.

In total, -2,153,000 jobs have been revised out of initially reported data over the last 3 years.

Since 2019, -2,500,000 jobs have been erased from official data, with negative revisions occurring in 6 of the last 7 years.

By comparison, 2009-2010 combined downward revisions were roughly -1,200,000.

What is happening with US labor market data?

[Potometrics @potometrics]

Inflation is expected to see it’s peak this quarter; and will gradually get back towards Fed’s 2% target.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

Projected GDP growth (2026-2036) according to CBO.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

Projected GDP growth (2026-2036) according to CBO.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

Inflation is expected to see it’s peak this quarter; and will gradually get back towards Fed’s 2% target.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US household debt surged +$191 billion in Q4 2025, to record $18.8 trillion.

Total household debt has increased +$4.6 trillion since January 2020.

The surge was driven by mortgage debt, which jumped +$98 billion, to a record $13.2 trillion.

Credit card debt rose +$44 billion, to $1.3 trillion, an all-time high.

Auto loan balances increased +$12 billion, to $1.7 trillion, also a record.

Student loan balances increased +$11 billion, to $1.7 trillion, an all-time high.

Americans are taking on record levels of debt.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

Unemployment rate (%) forecast through the end of 2027.

Joblessness is forecast to peak a high of 4.7% in the first half of 2026. 

Following the 2026 peak, the rate enters a consistent downward trend.

By the end of 2027, unemployment is expected to return to 4.1%.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

2026-2027 Projected Real GDP (Year-over-Year).

2026: GDP growth is projected to peak at 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, slowing significantly throughout the remainder of the year.

2027: Starting in 2027, the economy shows a steady incremental recovery trend.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

January was likely another tough month for the US job market:

US nonfarm employment fell -13,300 last month, marking the 2nd monthly decline over the last 4 months, according to Revelio.

The firm aggregates data from company career pages, such as LinkedIn and Indeed, and staffing agencies.

The decline was driven by Public Administration and Leisure and Hospitality, shedding -16,400 and -14,400 jobs, respectively.

Retail Trade and Professional and Business Services also posted losses of -12,800 and -10,600 roles.

This was partially offset by Education and Health Services, which added +41,000 jobs.

Excluding this sector, nonfarm employment dropped -54,300.

We expect a weak outcome from the delayed jobs report.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

The CPI forecast from the Philadelphia Fed.

Good news - inflation is coming down in the next 12/24 months.

Bad news - inflation remains above Fed’s 2% target in the forseeable future.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

US auto delinquencies are 50% higher than they were 15 years ago, per Bloomberg.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: US bank reserves fall to $2.8 trillion, lowest level since 2020

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: The percent of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more overdue on their payments has hit an all-time high of 6.4%, per Fitch.

[Leading Report @LeadingReport]

BREAKING: UPS to cut 48,000 jobs.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: UPS to cut 48,000 jobs

[Morning Brew ☕️ @MorningBrew]

Layoff news over the past week:

PwC
- Made 5,600 cuts in FY25

UPS
- Cut 48,000 roles through Sept.

Chegg
- To cut 45% of workforce (388 jobs)

Target
- Cutting 1,800 roles (8% of corporate team)

Amazon
- Making 14,000 cuts (up to 30,000 possible)

Paramount
- Cutting 2,000 jobs over two rounds of layoffs

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Oof. 40% of of items in the CPI were based on different cell imputation in September ... that means data collectors had to fill in missing data by using values from a related but different category or geographic area

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday

2. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - Wednesday

3. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Earnings - Wednesday

4. President Trump Meets President Xi - Thursday

5. Apple and Amazon Earnings - Thursday

6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week

We have a huge week ahead.

[Adam @AdameMedia]

This isn’t a joke btw.

This is actually the U.S. economy.

This scam is going to come crashing down. Soon.

[Potometrics @potometrics]

US National debt is currently at ~120% of GDP. It is projected to surpass ~150% by 2050 according to CBO estimates.

The projection is worrisome, but more worrisome is that projection may not be a straight line if it accelerates.